November 2014

25 November 2014
Comments Off
.

Results Announcement

  • 4 Nov 14 : SIAEC (1H15) – EPS 3.75ct vs 6.39ct (1H14) ; Div 6ct vs 7ct (1H14)
  • 5 Nov 14 : Starhub (Q314) – EPS 5.7ct vs 5.5ct (Q313) ; Div 5ct (No Change)
  • 6 Nov 14 : Singpost (Q215) – EPS 1.584ct ; Div 1.25ct
  • 7 Nov 14 (AM) : STEng (Q314) – EPS 3.89ct vs 4.24ct (Q313)
  • 7 Nov 14 : HLFin (Q314) – Annualised EPS 12.93ct
  • 12 Nov 14 (AM) : AusNet (1H15) – Gross Div A4.18ct
  • 12 Nov 14 : SBSTransit (Q314) – EPS 1.86ct vs 1.15ct (Q313)
  • 13 Nov 14 (AM) : Singtel (Q215) – EPS 6.51ct vs 5.46ct (Q214) ; Div 6.8ct (No Change)
  • 13 Nov 14 : ComfortDelgro (Q314) – EPS 3.78ct vs 3.61ct (Q313)
  • 13 Nov 14 : SATS (Q215) – EPS 4.2ct vs 4.3ct (Q214) ; Div 5ct (No Change)

 

 

STI = 3344.99 (+4.46)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

Hong Leong Fin

FY13 (Dec)

15.85

12.00

$2.580

4.651%

16.28

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SGX

FY14 (Jun)

30

28

$7.230

3.873%

24.10

Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct

SingPost

FY14 (Mar)

6.746

6.25

$1.915

3.264%

28.39

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY14 (Aug)

25

21

$4.330

4.850%

17.32

Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct

Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS


Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY14 (Mar)

16.10

13.0

$2.990

4.348%

18.57

Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct

SIA Engineering

FY14 (Mar)

23.88

25.0

$4.190

5.967%

17.55

Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct

ST Engineering

FY13 (Dec)

18.73

15.0

$3.350

4.478%

17.89

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct


Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)



Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY13 (Dec)

3.62

1.80

$1.700

1.059%

46.96

Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct

ComfortDelGro

FY13 (Dec)

12.43

7.00

$2.510

2.789%

20.19

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct

SMRT

FY14 (Mar)

4.10

2.20

$1.645

1.337%

40.12

Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct




TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY14 (Mar)

22.92

16.8

$3.900

4.308%

17.02

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY13 (Dec)

17.4

21

$3.620

5.801%

20.80

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct

StarHub

FY13 (Dec)

21.50

20

$4.180

4.785%

19.44

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct




Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

AusNet Services

1H – Sep14

A4.18 (Gross)

$1.490

6.243%

A$0.86

1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1127) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 25-Nov-14
  • SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
  • AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
  • SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
  • StarHub : Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
  • SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
  • SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
  • ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
  • ST Engg : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
  • HLFin : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • M1 : 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
  • SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
  • ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
  • StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
Bookmark and Share

Singpost – OCBC

7 November 2014
Comments Off

 

On the growth path

  • Healthy results
  • Lower reliance on mail
  • Prospects remain bright

 

Results in line

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 8.1% YoY rise in revenue to S$220.3m and a 5.5% increase in net profit to S$37.6m in 2QFY15, such that 1HFY15 revenue and net profit accounted for 48% and 50% of our full year estimates, respectively. Mail revenue rose 3.2% YoY to S$123m in 2QFY15, boosted by increased ecommerce transshipments in the international mail business line. This offset the decline in the traditional postal business in domestic mail and hybrid mail, which remain challenging. Logistics revenue rose 15.1% YoY to S$109m, while group operating margin remained steady at 21%, similar to a year ago.

Continues to invest for the future

In the past few months, the group continued to invest in its various business segments. Strategic investments include the acquisition of FS Mackenzie (UK), Tras-Inter Co (Japan), The Store House (HK) and Axis Plaza (Malaysia). SingPost has also been upgrading its postal infrastructure in Singapore; out of the S$100m investment, S$45m was for mail sorting machines which will be fully operational in Dec.

Mail as a % of total revenue lowest in history

Meanwhile, we note that mail accounted for 56% of total revenue in 2QFY15, the lowest the group has seen in its history. This used to be more than 75% in as recent as 2009, and has been decreasing over the years as SingPost sought to reduce its reliance on the mail business. This underscores the group’s efforts to build its other business segments such as logistics, retail and ecommerce.

E-commerce related revenue grows 20% YoY

Indeed, SingPost’s ecommerce-related revenue for 1HFY15 accounted for about 27% or S$116.1m of total revenue, representing a 20% YoY growth. With close to 1,000 ecommerce customers across the group and ecommerce package volumes registering double-digit growth YoY, we increase our FCFE growth rate assumption from 9% to 10% in our 3-stage DCF model, resulting in a slightly higher fair value estimate of S$2.17 (prev. S$2.09). In line with its usual practice, SingPost has declared an interim quarterly dividend of 1.25 S cents per share, payable on 28 Nov 2014. Maintain BUY.

Bookmark and Share

Starhub – DBSV

7 November 2014
Comments Off

Broadband, prepaid mobile decline

  • 3Q14 net profit of S$ 97.7m (+2.5% y-o-y, +4% q-oq) was 3% below our expectations
  • Service revenue growth weak on lower broadband, prepaid revenue
  • 5Scts interim dividend declared, in line with expectations.
  • Maintain HOLD with unchanged TP of S$4.30

Highlights

Revenue impacted by broadband, prepaid mobile

  • Competition contributed to the continued decline in broadband revenues which fell 4.0% q-o-q. Prepaid revenues were impacted by SIM ownership restrictions. However, overall revenues were boosted (+2% y-o-y, +3 qo-q) by higher handset sales.

Profitability improved by grant income

  • Despite being impacted by lower revenue levels, higher adoption grant income led to a q-o-q improvement in the bottom-line. However, profit margins are likely to decrease in 4Q14 with higher handset sales expected.

Outlook

Price competition in fixed broadband

  • Competition in fixed broadband is eroding Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for StarHub, resulting in lower earnings. The decline in ARPU is unlikely to reverse in the near term with StarHub likely to pursue its current strategy to preserve market share.

Postpaid to support mobile revenue

  • Postpaid growth is likely to support the mobile segment despite weaker prepaid revenue. With higher portion of consumers moving to tiered data plans, postpaid ARPU is likely to see further improvement.

Valuation

Given healthy cash generation, we use discounted cash flow valuation (WACC 6.5%, terminal growth 0%) to derive a target price of S$4.30. Besides mid single digit growth, the stock offers FY14F yield of 4.8%.

Risks

Decline in mobile roaming

  • A potential decline in mobile roaming could offset the gains from mobile data-repricing and broadband margins may decline sharper than expected.
Bookmark and Share
Next Page »