April 2015

17 April 2015
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Results Announcement

  • 13 Apr 15 : M1 (Q115) – EPS 4.9ct vs 4.6ct (Q114)
  • 14 Apr 15 : SPH (Q2 – Feb15)) – EPS 4ct vs 5ct (Q214) / 8ct (1H15) vs 11ct (1H14) ; Div 7ct (No Change)
  • 23 Apr 15 : HLFin

 

 

STI = 3525.19 (-6.42)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

Hong Leong Fin

FY14 (Dec)

14.17

10.00

$2.640

3.788%

18.63

Interim 4ct ; Final 6ct

SGX

FY14 (Jun)

30

28

$8.260

3.390%

27.53

Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct

SingPost

FY14 (Mar)

6.746

6.25

$1.940

3.222%

28.76

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY14 (Aug)

25

21

$4.130

5.085%

16.52

Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct

Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS


Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY14 (Mar)

16.10

13.0

$3.120

4.167%

19.38

Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct

SIA Engineering

FY14 (Mar)

23.88

25.0

$4.170

5.995%

17.46

Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct

ST Engineering

FY13 (Dec)

18.73

15.0

$3.810

3.937%

22.33

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct

Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)


Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY14 (Dec)

4.62

2.30

$1.825

1.260%

39.50

Interim 1.25ctct ; Final 1.05ct

ComfortDelGro

FY14 (Dec)

13.29

8.25

$3.000

2.750%

22.57

Interim 3.75ct ; Final 4.5ct

SMRT

FY14 (Mar)

4.10

2.20

$1.670

1.317%

40.73

Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct




TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY14 (Mar)

22.92

16.8

$4.460

3.767%

19.46

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY14 (Dec)

18.9

18.9

$3.750

5.040%

19.84

Interim 7ct ; Final 11.9ct

StarHub

FY14 (Dec)

21.50

20

$4.400

4.545%

20.47

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct




Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

AusNet Services

1H – Sep14

A4.18 (Gross)

$1.560

5.629%

A$0.86

1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.0504) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 17-Apr-15
  • SPH : 1H15 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
  • ST Engg : 2H14 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 7ct (Special) ; 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct / Payout = 88% (Not Reduced to 75% altho’ guided in Annc During FY13 Results)
  • HLFin : 2H14 (Dec) – 6ct ; 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • StarHub : Q414 (Dec) – 5ct ; Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
  • StarHub : FY15 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • M1 : 2H14 (Dec) – Final 11.9ct ; 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
  • SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
  • AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
  • SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
  • SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
  • SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
  • ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
  • SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
  • SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
  • ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
  • SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit

 

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March 2015

31 March 2015
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STI = 3447.01 (-7.25 / +44.15 for the Mth)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

Hong Leong Fin

FY14 (Dec)

14.17

10.00

$2.570

3.891%

18.14

Interim 4ct ; Final 6ct

SGX

FY14 (Jun)

30

28

$8.140

3.440%

27.13

Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct

SingPost

FY14 (Mar)

6.746

6.25

$1.960

3.189%

29.05

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY14 (Aug)

25

21

$4.190

5.012%

16.76

Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct

Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS


Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY14 (Mar)

16.10

13.0

$3.080

4.221%

19.13

Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct

SIA Engineering

FY14 (Mar)

23.88

25.0

$4.010

6.234%

16.79

Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct

ST Engineering

FY13 (Dec)

18.73

15.0

$3.480

4.310%

20.40

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct

Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)


Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY14 (Dec)

4.62

2.30

$1.710

1.345%

37.01

Interim 1.25ctct ; Final 1.05ct

ComfortDelGro

FY14 (Dec)

13.29

8.25

$2.890

2.855%

21.75

Interim 3.75ct ; Final 4.5ct

SMRT

FY14 (Mar)

4.10

2.20

$1.600

1.375%

39.02

Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct




TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY14 (Mar)

22.92

16.8

$4.380

3.836%

19.11

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY14 (Dec)

18.9

18.9

$3.900

4.846%

20.63

Interim 7ct ; Final 11.9ct

StarHub

FY14 (Dec)

21.50

20

$4.350

4.598%

20.23

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct




Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

AusNet Services

1H – Sep14

A4.18 (Gross)

$1.505

5.807%

A$0.86

1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.0454) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Mar-15
  • ST Engg : 2H14 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 7ct (Special) ; 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct / Payout = 88% (Not Reduced to 75% altho’ guided in Annc During FY13 Results)
  • HLFin : 2H14 (Dec) – 6ct ; 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • StarHub : Q414 (Dec) – 5ct ; Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
  • StarHub : FY15 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • M1 : 2H14 (Dec) – Final 11.9ct ; 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
  • SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
  • AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
  • SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
  • SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
  • SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
  • SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
  • ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
  • SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
  • SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
  • ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
  • SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit

 

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Land Transport – OCBC

12 March 2015
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Performing well as expected

  • Fare hike from Apr-15 onwards
  • Positive on several catalysts
  • Maintain OVERWEIGHT

Review of CY14 results

The two public transport operators (PTOs) in Singapore, ComfortDelGro (CDG) and SMRT Corp (SMRT) had a smooth end to CY14, as results came in within expectations. CDG’s FY14 revenue rose 8.1% while PATMI grew 7.7%. Its PATMI formed 98.5% of our projection as it continued to achieve broad-based revenue growth across bus, rail and taxi segments. Business stability remains as CDG’s key characteristic but we note that there are other growth drivers going forward as well. For SMRT, recovery momentum continues on as 3QFY15 PATMI jumped 58.4% YoY as revenue rose 6.8% on both non-fare and fare businesses recorded broad-based growth. Its operating margins also improved YoY for the fourth consecutive quarters as 9MFY15 PATMI formed 76.5% of our projection. Similarly, we think SMRT has much more room to grow in view of the several catalysts we have identified.

Outlook remains positive on several catalysts

Going forward, we have reasons to believe that the sector outlook remains largely positive on several catalysts. On near-term catalysts, we expect: 1) further growth for CDG’s taxi segment as it is the only taxi operator in Singapore allowed to grow its fleet size by 2.0% in CY15, 2) higher taxi rental income for both PTOs in CY15 as they continue to renew their taxi fleet, 3) full rental income contribution from SMRT’s Kallang Wave Mall from FY16 onwards, and lastly, 4) savings from lower energy costs that will be more visible from FY16 for both PTOs with different hedging exposures. The longer-term catalysts are still the same from our last sector report: 5) with a little more than a year before the new bus government contracting model (GCM) commences, LTA has to take over all the bus assets from the PTOs and we believe both PTOs have much to gain if LTA pays in lump sum to purchase the bus assets, 6) the transition to the new GCM by 2HCY16 will see core bus operations of both PTOs turn profitable, and 7) the announcement of concrete details on new rail financing model, that has limited impact on CDG but large positive impact on SMRT.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT

Overall, the expected increase in ridership in addition to the catalysts stated above will continue to drive growth. We believe PTOs will also continue to manage costs and improve productivity gains, improving profitability further. Hence, we maintain OVERWEIGHT on land transport sector. However, given the recent runup in CDG’s share price, our top pick for the land transport sector is now SMRT as we reiterate BUY on SMRT [FV: S$1.85] while we maintain HOLD [FV: S$3.07] on CDG. However, note that we have also taken into account the potential fines and higher expenses resulting from the series of train disruptions on SMRT services thus far in CY15.

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