January 2015

23 January 2015
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Results Announcement

  • 13 Jan 15 : SPH (Q115) – EPS 4ct vs 6ct (Q115)
  • 19 Jan 15 : M1 (Q414) – EPS 4.8ct vs 4.4ct (Q413) / 18.9ct (FY14) vs 17.4ct (FY13) ; Div 11.9ct vs 14.2ct (2H13) / 18.9ct (FY14) vs 21ct (FY13)
  • 21 Jan 15 : SGX (Q215) – EPS 8.1ct vs 7.01ct (Q214) / 15.3ct (1H15) vs 15.64ct (1H14) ; Div 4ct (no change)
  • 29 Jan 15 : SMRT
  • 4 Feb 15 : SATS
  • 10 Feb 15 : SBSTransit
  • 11 Feb 15 : ComfortDelgro

 
 

 
 

STI = 3411.50 (+41.21)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

Hong Leong Fin

FY13 (Dec)

15.85

12.00

$2.630

4.563%

16.59

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SGX

FY14 (Jun)

30

28

$7.960

3.518%

26.53

Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct

SingPost

FY14 (Mar)

6.746

6.25

$2.060

3.034%

30.54

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY14 (Aug)

25

21

$4.080

5.147%

16.32

Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct

Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS


Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY14 (Mar)

16.10

13.0

$2.980

4.362%

18.51

Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct

SIA Engineering

FY14 (Mar)

23.88

25.0

$4.430

5.643%

18.55

Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct

ST Engineering

FY13 (Dec)

18.73

15.0

$3.390

4.425%

18.10

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct

Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)


Transport

ComfortDelGro

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY13 (Dec)

3.62

1.80

$1.820

0.989%

50.28

Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct

ComfortDelGro

FY13 (Dec)

12.43

7.00

$2.760

2.536%

22.20

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct

SMRT

FY14 (Mar)

4.10

2.20

$1.650

1.333%

40.24

Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct




TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY14 (Mar)

22.92

16.8

$3.990

4.211%

17.41

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY14 (Dec)

18.9

18.9

$3.740

5.053%

19.79

Interim 7ct ; Final 11.9ct

StarHub

FY13 (Dec)

21.50

20

$4.190

4.773%

19.49

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct




Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

AusNet Services

1H – Sep14

A4.18 (Gross)

$1.490

6.006%

A$0.86

1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.0705) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 23-Jan-15
  • M1 : 2H14 (Dec) – Final 11.9ct ; 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
  • SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
  • AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
  • SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
  • StarHub : Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
  • SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
  • SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
  • ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
  • ST Engg : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
  • HLFin : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
  • SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
  • ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
  • StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
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M1 – OCBC

20 January 2015
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Better-than-expected 4Q14 showing

  • FY14 NPAT beats forecast
  • Keeps moderate earnings growth
  • Fibre ARPUs likely bottoming

Better-than-expected 4Q14 showing

M1 Ltd reported its 4Q14 results last evening, where revenue jumped 24.3% YoY (also +38.4% QoQ) to S$346.4m, driven largely by the strong handset sales, as demand for the new Apple iPhone 6 and 6+ remained robust. However, net profit grew by a slower 9.8% YoY (down 0.1% QoQ) to S$44.5m, mainly due to higher operating expenses (acquisition cost rose 10.6% YoY, +18.7% QoQ) and higher taxes. Nevertheless, the better-than-expected set of results saw its FY14 revenue of S$1076.3m (+6.8%) exceed our estimate by 4.9% and net profit of S$175.8m (+9.7%) outpace our forecast by 6.2. M1 declared a final dividend of S$0.119/share, bringing its total payout this year to S$0.189/share, versus S$0.21 last year.

Keeps moderate earnings growth outlook

For FY15, management continues to believe that it can achieve moderate earnings growth (within the single-digit range), driven by the stronger data usage. M1 notes that smartphone users contributed 65% of total data traffic in 2014, up from 55% in 2013. The group also revealed that 66% of postpaid customers are on tiered data plans, where 22% exceeded their data bundles. M1 is also upbeat about its fixed services segment, where the take-up of higher speed fibre plans will be ARPU accretive in the residential segment; it believes it is also wellplaced to capture growth in the corporate segment with its product and service differentiation. And with its LTE-network upgrade almost done, M1 expects to spend around S$120m as capex, down from the S$139.6m spent in 2014.

Improving FV to S$3.66

Besides the better-than-expected 4Q14 numbers, we are also heartened by the recovery in the residential fibre ARPUs, suggesting that the extreme price competition is starting to become more rational; although the continued drop in prepaid subscribers is an area to watch. In line with the latest guidance, we revise our FY15 estimates up by 2-7%; our DCF-based fair value also improves from S$3.37 to S$3.66, mainly due to the drop in 10-year bond yields. Maintain HOLD.

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SPH – OCBC

14 January 2015
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Headwinds for print continue

  • 1QFY15 broadly within expectations
  • Seletar Mall officially opened
  • Lower fair value to S$3.85

1QFY15 results within expectations

Singapore Press Holdings’ 1QFY15 PATMI came in at S$69.4m, down 21.9% YoY, mostly due to reduced contributions from the core Newspaper and Magazine business whose performance was affected by continued headwinds in the print advertising market. That said, this was broadly within our expectations and 1QFY15 PATMI and total revenues now constitute 25.9% and 25.1% of our full year forecast, respectively. In terms of the topline, we saw 1QFY15 total revenues dip 6.5% YoY to S$310.6m, mainly as contributions from the Newspaper and Magazine segment fell S$20.2m. Advertisement and circulation components were down by S$16.0m and S$3.2m YoY, respectively. In addition, revenue from the group’s other businesses also dipped S$1.8m YoY due to the absence of contributions from key shows this year.

Ad segment continues downtrend

Over 1QFY15, the performance of the core print segment remained uninspiring as display and classified revenue fell 8.3% and 9.5%, respectively. Staff costs were kept mostly flat at S$92.8m, up 1.7% YoY, while the average headcount was also stagnant at 4,310 as at end Nov 14 (versus 4,322 a year ago). Newsprint prices continued to inch down to S$586/MT versus S$598/MT in 4QFY14, while average monthly consumption also fell to 7,847 MT.

Seletar Mall now fully leased

We saw a set of stable results from the group’s property segment. 1QFY15 property revenue increased 1.2% YoY to S$51.4m while Net Property Income also grew 1.8% to S$37.0m. The group’s new Seletar Mall officially opened in 28 Nov 2014 and is now fully leased. We value SPH using a sum-ofthe-parts methodology, and lower our PE multiple for the group’s print segment from 9x to 7.5x, to reflect weakening fundamentals in the sector. Our fair value estimate dips to S$3.85, from S$4.13 previously. Maintain HOLD.

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