Month: August 2009
August 2009
Result Announcement
- 4-Aug-09 : STEng (Q209) – EPS 3.62ct ; Div 3ct
- 5-Aug-09 : StarHub (Q209) – EPS 4.55ct (to date 9.37ct) Div 4.5ct (to date 9ct)
- 13-Aug-09 (AM) : MIIF (1H09) – Div 1.5ct
- 13-Aug-09 (AM) : SingTel (Q110) – EPS 5.94ct
- 13-Aug-09 : ComfortDelgro (Q209) – EPS 2.74ct (to date 5.26ct) ; Div 2.63ct
- 13-Aug-09 : SBSTransit (Q209) – EPS 4.4ct (to date 10.5ct) ; Div 4.5ct
STI = 2605.39 (-37.41)
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY08 : Aug |
27.0 |
S$3.66 |
7.377% |
13.56 |
Interim 8ct ; Final 9ct + 10ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY09 : Mar |
6.25 |
$0.935 |
6.684% |
12.10 |
Q1 1.25ct ; Q2 1.25ct ; Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Jun-09 |
4.0 |
S$2.66 |
3.008% |
— |
Jun09 4ct ; Dec08 5ct ; Jun08 6ct |
|
STEng |
FY08 : Dec |
15.8 |
S$2.59 |
6.100% |
16.37 |
Final 4ct + 8.8ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY08 : Dec |
6.6 |
S$1.78 |
3.708% |
13.50 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 3.6ct |
|
ComfortDelgro |
FY08 : Dec |
5.0 |
S$1.55 |
3.226% |
16.16 |
Interim 2.6ct ; Final 2.4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY09 : Mar |
7.75 |
S$1.70 |
4.559% |
15.89 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY09 : Mar |
12.5 |
S$3.14 |
3.981% |
14.49 |
Interim 5.6ct ; Final 6.9ct |
|
M1 |
FY08 : Dec |
13.4 |
S$1.71 |
7.836% |
10.18 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 7.2ct |
|
StarHub |
FY08 : Dec |
18.0 |
S$2.20 |
8.182% |
12.04 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 4.5ct ; Q4 4.5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
FY10 (Projected) |
A8.0 (Gross) |
S$0.925 |
10.470% |
A$0.89 (NTA) |
2H09 A5.6578ct ; 1H09 A5.7431ct |
|
MIIF |
1H : Jun-09 |
1.5 |
S$0.335 |
8.955% |
$0.88 |
2H08 3.0ct ; 1H08 4.25ct |
|
MacCookPSF |
Q4 : Jun-09 |
— |
S$0.145 |
— |
A$0.5168 (NTA) |
Q209 A1.0ct ; Q109 A1.75ct |
* SPAus and MacCookPSF DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2106) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Aug-09
- ComfortDelgro : Q209 (Jun) – 2.63ct
- SBSTransit : Q209 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- MIIF : 1H09 (Dec) – 1.5ct
- StarHub : Q209 (Jun) – 4.5ct ; Q109 (Mar) – 4.5ct
- ST Engg : Q209 (Jun) – 3ct
- SingPost : Q110 (Jun09) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 1H09 (Jun) – Interim 6.2ct
- SingTel : Q409 (Mar09) – Final 6.9ct ; Q209 (Sep08) – Interim 5.6ct
- SPAus
: Projected DPU = A8ct (FY10 – Year End Mar-10) ; 1-for-4 Rights @ A$0.78/S$0.86 - SPAus : 2H09 (Mar09) – AA5.927ct (before tax) / A5.6578ct (after tax) ; 1H09 (Sep08) – A5.927ct (before tax) / A5.7431ct (after tax)
- SMRT : Q409 (Mar09) – Final 6ct ; Q209 (Sep08) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 1H09 (Feb) – 7ct
- StarHub : FY09 Div Policy 18ct ie 4.5ct/Q
- MacCookPSF : Q409 (Jun09) – DPU Decision Deferred,
SGX 10-Aug-09 ; Last DPU Paid was Q209 (Dec08)
StarHub – BT
200,000 users for StarHub’s home line service
THE customer base for StarHub’s home phone line service, Digital Voice, has hit 200,000, doubling in the span of 10 months.
StarHub offered Digital Voice as a free value-added service to StarHub TV customers 10 months ago, while MaxOnline customers have been enjoying the service free-of-charge since 2005.
Digital Voice is delivered through StarHub’s broadband cable network, resulting in cost-savings.
‘Our customers see great value of our Digital Voice service especially when the charges for home fixed-line service offered by the incumbent has increased significantly. With no monthly subscription fees and free local voice charges using StarHub’s Digital Voice, StarHub TV or MaxOnline, customers have saved at least $100 a year,’ said Ong Bee Lian, StarHub’s vice-president of home solutions.
Customers are able to port in their current home phone number or get a brand new Digital Voice number. They can also retain this phone number for life.
‘We will introduce more innovative bundled offerings in the coming months,’ added Ms Ong.
To sign up, StarHub TV or MaxOnline customers can call the subscription sales hotline at 1630, sign up online or visit any StarHub shop.
Telecom – AmFraser
Mobile subscribers grew 1.5% QoQ in 2Q09
• Monthly mobile subscriber net adds picked up to 33,000 in 2Q09, from 25,000 in 1Q09. This represented a 1.5% QoQ growth, and 5.7% YoY growth to 6.5 million subscribers. While the net adds are far off the heady levels seen before 3Q08 and the peak of 113,000 in 4Q07, the pick up (albeit small) is encouraging and marks a trough in 1Q09.
• Total mobile subscribers revised up to YoY growth of 6% in FY09 and 7% in FY10 to 6.7 million and 7.2 million, respectively. While the revision is a marginal 1% and 3% respectively, this marks improving sentiments in the macroeconomic environment in the recent three months. We consider the growth fairly healthy, in a market where penetration stands at 134.6% at June 2009. Prepaid accounted 49% of the market with 51% from postpaid at 2Q09.
• In 2Q09, M1 gained market share helped by strong growth in prepaid. M1’s overall market share inched up from 25.3% in 1Q to 25.6%. M1 added 14,000 monthly prepaid net adds in 2Q as they stepped up promotional offers in the heartlands areas via M1 retailers and chain stores, combined with hefty 50% discounts off IDD rates to several countries. At the same time, SingTel lost overall market share due to monthly net subscriber loss of 2,000 in prepaid, due to deregistrations of inactive SIM users.
• But SingTel gained market share in postpaid, with monthly net adds of 7,000, higher than M1’s 2,000 and StarHub’s 3,000. Interest for iPhone 3G (only sold by SingTel) helped, although postpaid net adds were off the peak of 15,000 in 3Q08 when iPhone 3G was first launched. We expect the stronger trend for SingTel to sustain as the new iPhone 3G S was launched in July. iPhone users also generate an ARPU that is 1.5X that of a normal postpaid subscriber.
• Fall in postpaid ARPU stemmed in 2Q, with improvement in call and data usage. Pospaid ARPU picked up most for StarHub at 3% QoQ, helped by non-voice contribution which rose from 29% of postpaid revenues in 1Q to 30.5%. In terms of data traffic, StarHub enjoyed a 60% surge to 1.6 million GB in 2Q from 1Q09.
• Helped by 3G migration, pure data usage plans revitalises saturated market. In terms of take up for pure data usage plans (including that for smartphones), M1 grew 13% QoQ to 178,000 while SingTel grew 29% QoQ to 226,000. These represented 20% and 15% of their respectively postpaid base (StarHub does not disclose this measure.) Four years after the launch of 3G services, Singapore operators have migrated 78% to 84% of their postpaid subscribers to the 3G networks. 3G subscribers totalled 2.7 million in 2Q09.
• 1H 2009 mobile service revenues held up well, boosted by QoQ pick up in 2Q revenue. In terms of total mobile service revenues (inclusive of IDD), StarHub saw a 1% YoY fall in 1H 2009, while M1’s was flat and SingTel’s rose an estimated 6%.
• Our preferred stock is M1 for 17% upside to fair value of S$2.03/share. For its pure play mobile operations, M1 enjoys EBITDA margins of 45% over the forecast period, and is a pure beneficiary of the next phase of growth in mobile broadband. At this juncture, StarHub and SingTel are trading close to their fair values of S$2.28/share and S$3.05/share respectively and we maintain HOLD ratings on these.
SPH – DB
Singapore July 09 adex continued to decline
According to latest data from The Nielsen Company (“Nielsen”), Singapore advertising expenditures (adex) in July 09 fell 6.8% YoY to S$168.2m, representing the highest monthly adex year-to-date. Radio, Cinema and Internet adex showed YoY improvements and in particular, the July Internet adex grew a record 54.9% YoY (albeit from a low base). But performance across all other adex platforms continued to be weak, with Bus & Taxi adex registering the largest YoY decline (-24% YoY). Newspaper adex (excluding Today) decline decelerated to 8.7% YoY, but newspaper’s (excluding Today) 32.9% share of total adex was only marginally above June 09’s three-year low. Total print (newspaper and magazine) adex in July reached S$74.5m, 7% lower than a year ago.
Although adex decline appears to be decelerating, it is difficult to get too excited about the July 09 adex data. Our channel checks reveal that advertisers remain generally cautious. And although sentiment is strengthening, this has not translated into an increase in advertising orders and marketing budgets remain restrained. As we have previously highlighted, there is a typical lead-time for planning of and adjustments to marketing budgets and as such, we continue to expect any substantial adex recovery to happen towards mid-2010.
Maintain neutral stance towards SPH
We estimate SPH booked approximately S$109m advertising revenues in the first two months of 4Q09, in-line with our estimates for the quarter (S $166m). Given lack of evidence of any strong recovery in the adex market, we maintain our forecasts and Hold recommendation.
ComfortDelgro – UOBKH
Playing The Recovery Theme
Playing the recovery theme. We like ComfortDelGro (CDG) for the two opportunities it offers for playing the recovery theme. The earnings recovery momentum derived from lower fuel expenses is set to continue for the rest of 2009. In 2010, we expect to see improved business conditions on the back of a sturdier global recovery to augment the effect of normalised margins, giving a more meaningful boost to earnings.
2009: Margin recovery on lower energy-related costs. Margins are already on the road to recovery on the back of significantly lower oil prices and the company’s fuel hedging programme that was put in place end-08. In 2Q09, EBIT margin recovered to 12.5% (+5.9ppt yoy), and net margin recovered to 7.6% (+3.8ppt yoy). By our estimation, the bulk of the savings in energy-related costs over 2Q08 flowed directly down to net profit.
2010: Turnover improvements augment effects of normalised margins. CDG is set to enter 2010 on healthier margins primarily from lower fuel cost. In addition, we expect increased corporate spending in the UK to help the company’s taxi business there, and the lifting of the temporary fare reductions and transfer rebates to return SBS Transit back to a normal level of performance.
Maintain BUY; target price raised to S$1.85. We have lowered our profit forecasts for 2009-11F by between -6.3% and -11.3%. We value CDG using discounted free cash flow to equity at S$1.85/share (COE: 6.4%; terminal growth: 2%). Our revised target price (up from S$1.76) gives a potential upside of 15.6% over the last closing price of S$1.60.