SMRT – AmFraser
All good news factored in; negative near term factors
• We have changed our rating on SMRT to HOLD from previous BUY. Shares have appreciated 13% since our last report on 28 January 2010 and 26% since our initiation on 2 July 2009.
• SMRT is currently trading close to our fair value of S$2.19/share with limited room for upside revision in the near term, as much of good news has been factored.
• Ridership boost from next week’s opening of Circle Line (CCL) 1 and 2 has been factored into market estimates. Combined with CCL 3 (five stations spanning 6km), which has been operational since May 2009, LTA estimates ridership of 200,000 per day for CCL1, 2 and 3. CCL 1 and 2 spans 11 stations across route of 11 km.
• Recent pick up at CCL3 encouraging but small impact in overall scheme of things. In the early days of operation, CCL3 struggled to achieve 30,000 rides per day. We understand this ramped up to about 50,000 last week. We expect CCL1, 2 and 3 to support our ridership projection of 9% growth in FY11 to 587 million, taking some cannibalization of East-West and North-South lines into consideration.
• Potential increase to rental income also factored in. About 2,500sq m of commercial space at various stations available for lease will come onstream in FY11, adding to the current 30,000sq m. Another 1,700sq m in nett lettable area from Orchard Exchange will come onstream in FY11/12, and another 2,500sq m in FY12 with Jurong Extension.
• Largest addition in the near term is Esplanade Exchange, which offers 2,000sq m. Eighty percent of this has been committed for the typical tenure of three years, and rental income will start to flow through progressively through the year as tenants complete their fittings and start business operations.
• Biggest commitment is from Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) with 450sq m. The Experience Centre will start to showcase Singapore’s Next Generation National Broadband Network (NGNBN) from June 2010. Other tenants that have signed up include Sony, StarHub, convenience stores such as Guardian Pharmacy and Seven Eleven, food outlets such as Burger King, Polar Cafe, Coffee and Toast as well as a foodcourt; to name some.
• Breakeven not achievable despite 200,000 daily ridership for CCL 1, 2 and 3. The remaining CCL 4 and 5 comprising another 13 stations on a route of 17km is expected to be handed over from LTA only in FY12.
• Several negative factors in the near term reduce potential to upgrade estimates:
(1) Oil price is again above $80 per barrel and trending towards S$90.
(2) Reduction of benefits from the Government’s Jobs Credit scheme will be felt most in FY11F.
(3) No significant expansion for taxi fleet despite economic pick up as COE prices are expected to surge with the expected cut in COE quota over the next few months.
• Stock is fully valued at current levels as we project earnings fall of 8% in FY11. SMRT reports FY10 results on 30 April; our expectations are for full year growth of 9% to S$177.9mil.