SingTel – Phillip
Stable outlook, but Guidance lowered on AUD depreciation
SingTel (ST) is a leading communications service provider with diversified geographical exposures. The core part of SingTel’s business resides in Singapore & Australia, while meaningful stakes in its regional Associates provides the Group with exposure across Asia-Pacific.
- Underlying 1Q14 profits up 5.5% y-y to S$897 million
- FY14 Guidance revised downwards on FX weakness.
- Maintain “Accumulate” with new TP of S$3.99, based on Dividend yield, Strong business fundamentals, and Growth potential from Associates.
What is the news?
SingTel reported 1Q14 underlying profits of S$897 million. Revenue decreased -5.3% y-y, due to lower revenue from Australia. FY14 guidance was revised downward due to expected depreciation of key currencies, including AUD. Excluding this FX impact, management guides business fundamentals remains unchanged and strong. SingTel has changed its presentation to focus on 1) Group Consumer (62% Group’s EBITDA ex-assoc), 2) Group Enterprise (41.5%) and 3) Group Digital Life. (-2.0%)
How do we view
Positively, the improvement in cost management mitigated the decline in revenue, leading to y-y EBITDA margin improvements. For SG Group Consumer, data monetizing continues to gain traction, while residential pay TV showed significant improvements. AU Group Consumer EBITDA increased 4.6% y-y on cost optimizing and similar data monetizing. Management stressed its focus on retaining and maximizing profits from existing customers, instead of growth of customer base. Group Enterprise revenue was lower on weaker business environment, but EBITDA was up 3.1% y-y on cost management.
We factor in 1Q14’s earnings. We derive a new Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) target price of S$3.99. SingTel’s dividend yield remains attractive, while the business remains fundamentally strong, and the associates provide growth potential. We therefore maintain our “Accumulate” rating.