Month: March 2014
March 2014
STI = 3188.62 (+77.88 for Mar-14)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.740 |
4.380% |
17.29 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY13 (Mar) |
6.435 |
6.25 |
$1.360 |
4.596% |
21.13 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY13 (Aug) |
27 |
22.0 |
$4.200 |
5.238% |
15.56 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 7ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY13 (Mar) |
16.60 |
15.0 |
$3.040 |
4.934% |
18.31 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY13 (Mar) |
24.51 |
22.0 |
$4.840 |
4.545% |
19.75 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.820 |
3.927% |
20.40 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.215 |
1.481% |
33.56 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$1.985 |
3.526% |
15.97 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY13 (Mar) |
5.5 |
2.50 |
$1.020 |
2.451% |
18.55 |
Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY13 (Mar) |
22.02 |
16.8 |
$3.650 |
4.603% |
16.58 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.470 |
6.052% |
19.94 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.200 |
4.762% |
19.53 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
1H – Sep13 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.540 |
6.311% |
A$0.92 |
1H14 A4.18ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1625) fm Yahoo
** MIIF have been Removed from Mar-14 as Assets had been Reduced to only 1 (HNE) which will be eventually sold off
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Mar-14
- HLFin : 2H13 (Dec) – 8ct ; 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- ST Engg : 2H13 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 8ct (Special) ; 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct
- MIIF : 2H13 (Dec) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q413 (Dec) –4ct ; Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- SBSTransit : Q413 (Dec) – 0.9ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- StarHub : Q413 (Dec) – 5ct ; Q313 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingPost : Q314 (Dec13) – 1.25ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – 1.25ct ; Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H14 (Sep13) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.396ct (Interest) + A0.391ct (Capital Returns)
- SingTel : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 6.8ct
- SIAEC : Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 7ct
- SATSvcs : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 1ct
- SPH : 2H13 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 7ct ; 1H13 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 2H13 (Dec) –0.8ct (Final) ; CXP Return of Capital = 9.7ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
March 2014
STI = 3188.62 (+77.88 for Mar-14)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.740 |
4.380% |
17.29 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY13 (Mar) |
6.435 |
6.25 |
$1.360 |
4.596% |
21.13 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY13 (Aug) |
27 |
22.0 |
$4.200 |
5.238% |
15.56 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 7ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY13 (Mar) |
16.60 |
15.0 |
$3.040 |
4.934% |
18.31 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY13 (Mar) |
24.51 |
22.0 |
$4.840 |
4.545% |
19.75 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.820 |
3.927% |
20.40 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.215 |
1.481% |
33.56 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$1.985 |
3.526% |
15.97 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY13 (Mar) |
5.5 |
2.50 |
$1.020 |
2.451% |
18.55 |
Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY13 (Mar) |
22.02 |
16.8 |
$3.650 |
4.603% |
16.58 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.470 |
6.052% |
19.94 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.200 |
4.762% |
19.53 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
1H – Sep13 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.540 |
6.311% |
A$0.92 |
1H14 A4.18ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1625) fm Yahoo
** MIIF have been Removed from Mar-14 as Assets had been Reduced to only 1 (HNE) which will be eventually sold off
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Mar-14
- HLFin : 2H13 (Dec) – 8ct ; 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- ST Engg : 2H13 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 8ct (Special) ; 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct
- MIIF : 2H13 (Dec) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q413 (Dec) –4ct ; Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- SBSTransit : Q413 (Dec) – 0.9ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- StarHub : Q413 (Dec) – 5ct ; Q313 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingPost : Q314 (Dec13) – 1.25ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – 1.25ct ; Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H14 (Sep13) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.396ct (Interest) + A0.391ct (Capital Returns)
- SingTel : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 6.8ct
- SIAEC : Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 7ct
- SATSvcs : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 1ct
- SPH : 2H13 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 7ct ; 1H13 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 2H13 (Dec) –0.8ct (Final) ; CXP Return of Capital = 9.7ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
TELCOs – OCBC
4QCY13 results mostly tracking our estimates
- All largely in line
- Outlook still muted
- Yields are bit more decent
StarHub missed our forecast
Both M1 and SingTel reported 4QCY13 results that came in within our expectations, while StarHub’s results tracked below forecast. M1’s core FY13 earnings was 3.5% above our full-year forecast and SingTel’s 9MFY14 earnings met 73% of our FY14 estimate. But due to lower-than-expected EBITDA margin, StarHub’s core FY13 earnings was 5% below our forecast. Interestingly, M1 declared a special dividend, which brought its total payout to 121% of earnings; StarHub kept its payout at S$0.20 as guided.
Review of Singapore mobile operations
Total post-paid mobile subscribers grew by a stronger-than-expected 2% QoQ to 4.53m in the Dec quarter, led by StarHub (+5.2%), SingTel (+1.1%), then M1 (+0.4%). Meanwhile, the decline in monthly ARPUs appears to be stabilizing; and telcos are optimistic that ARPUs should improve as more subscribers switch over to the new tiered pricing plans with less generous data bundles.
Little change to FY14 outlook
M1 continues to expect moderate single-digit earnings growth, although capex will be slightly higher at S$130m (versus S$125m in FY13). SingTel still sees mid-single digit decline in group revenue and low-single digit fall in EBITDA for FY14 (ending 31 Mar); but expects lower S$2.2b capex spend versus S$2.5b guided previously. StarHub is still guiding for low single-digit revenue growth with 32% EBITDA margin (vs. 32.9% in FY13).
Yields are still decent
As before, the spectre of rising interest rates is looming; but the recent pullback in the telcos’ share prices is starting to bring dividend yields back towards the 5% handle (4.8% average forecast). Hence we think that these stocks should continue to have a place in any portfolio also for their defensive earnings. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.
TELCOs – OCBC
4QCY13 results mostly tracking our estimates
- All largely in line
- Outlook still muted
- Yields are bit more decent
StarHub missed our forecast
Both M1 and SingTel reported 4QCY13 results that came in within our expectations, while StarHub’s results tracked below forecast. M1’s core FY13 earnings was 3.5% above our full-year forecast and SingTel’s 9MFY14 earnings met 73% of our FY14 estimate. But due to lower-than-expected EBITDA margin, StarHub’s core FY13 earnings was 5% below our forecast. Interestingly, M1 declared a special dividend, which brought its total payout to 121% of earnings; StarHub kept its payout at S$0.20 as guided.
Review of Singapore mobile operations
Total post-paid mobile subscribers grew by a stronger-than-expected 2% QoQ to 4.53m in the Dec quarter, led by StarHub (+5.2%), SingTel (+1.1%), then M1 (+0.4%). Meanwhile, the decline in monthly ARPUs appears to be stabilizing; and telcos are optimistic that ARPUs should improve as more subscribers switch over to the new tiered pricing plans with less generous data bundles.
Little change to FY14 outlook
M1 continues to expect moderate single-digit earnings growth, although capex will be slightly higher at S$130m (versus S$125m in FY13). SingTel still sees mid-single digit decline in group revenue and low-single digit fall in EBITDA for FY14 (ending 31 Mar); but expects lower S$2.2b capex spend versus S$2.5b guided previously. StarHub is still guiding for low single-digit revenue growth with 32% EBITDA margin (vs. 32.9% in FY13).
Yields are still decent
As before, the spectre of rising interest rates is looming; but the recent pullback in the telcos’ share prices is starting to bring dividend yields back towards the 5% handle (4.8% average forecast). Hence we think that these stocks should continue to have a place in any portfolio also for their defensive earnings. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.
SATS – MayBank Kim Eng
TFK at inflection point
- TFK’s contribution to SATS has been lacklustre since it was acquired in 2010, hampered by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, rising Sino-Japanese tensions since 2012 and falling JPY.
- But positive developments are afoot: 1) rise in China visitation numbers to Japan, 2) steady growth in JAL’s international traffic, and 3) expanding customer base.
- Longer-term outlook is bright as well. Reiterate BUY on SATS with DCF-based TP of SGD3.47.
Lacklustre contribution since acquisition
We believe the market has been overly pessimistic about TFK Corporation’s near-term weakness and ignoring the upside potential for SATS. Granted, the Japan-based inflight catering unit has not been a significant earnings contributor since SATS acquired it in Dec 2010 (FY3/13: 18% of revenue and 6% of EBIT). But its poor performance could be traced to weak meal volumes as a result of lacklustre air traffic growth in Japan following the Tohoku earthquake in Mar 2011 and the rise in Sino-Japanese political tensions since 2012. The sharp drop in the JPY, which dented TFK’s SGD-translated contributions to the group, compounded matters.
But at an inflection point now
The dismal performance notwithstanding, we believe TFK is now at an inflection point and anticipate improving performance hereon. Our positive view is premised on three emerging trends: 1) rise in China visitation numbers to Japan, 2) steady growth in Japan Airlines’ (JAL) international traffic, and 3) expanding customer base. The longer-term outlook is bright too, with additional international slots at Haneda Airport and Japan’s continued emphasis to promote the country’s tourism industry. A potential regional air services agreement between Japan and ASEAN would give a new fillip to air traffic and hence, meal volumes at TFK. SATS is a play on the structural trend of rising air traffic in the region. Reiterate BUY with DCF-based TP of SGD3.47 (WACC = 7.6%, terminal growth rate = 1.0%).