Month: January 2008
January 2008
Results
- 30 Jan 08 : SingPost (Q308) – EPS 1.914ct (todate 5.977ct) ; DPS 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
- 25 Jan 08 : SMRT (Q308) – EPS 2.5ct (todate 7.6ct)
- 24 Jan 08 : M1 (Q407) – EPS 4.2ct (todate 18.5ct) ; DPS 8.3ct
- 14 Jan 08 : SPH (Q108 – Nov07) – EPS 7ct
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPH |
FY07 – Aug |
26.0 |
S$4.36 |
5.963% |
13.63 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 10ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY07 : Mar |
6.25 |
S$1.08 |
5.787% |
14.81 |
Q1 1.25ct ; Q2 1.25ct ; Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
Sing Food |
FY06 : Dec |
5.4 |
S$0.755 |
7.152% |
12.80 |
Interim 2.2ct ; Final 3.2ct |
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SBSTransit |
FY06 : Dec |
28.5 |
S$2.45 |
11.633% |
13.26 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6.5ct + Special 17ct |
|
ComfortDelgro |
FY06 : Dec |
11.0 |
S$1.56 |
7.051% |
13.22 |
Interim 3.125ct + Special 3.375 ; Final 3ct + Special 1.5ct |
|
SMRT |
FY07 : Mar |
7.25 |
S$1.71 |
4.240% |
19.21 |
Interim 1.5ct ; Final 5.75ct |
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SingTel |
FY07 : Mar |
20.6 |
S$3.65 |
5.644% |
15.70 |
Interim 4.6ct ; Final 6.5ct + Special 9.5ct |
|
M1 |
FY07 : Dec |
15.4 |
S$1.88 |
8.191% |
10.16 |
Interim 2.5ct + 4.6ct (Capital Reduction) ; Final 8.3ct |
|
StarHub |
FY06 : Dec |
11.5 |
S$2.96 |
3.885% |
16.82 |
Q1 2.5ct ; Q2 2.5ct ; Q3 3ct ; Q4 3.5ct |
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPAus |
1H : Sep-07 |
A5.6142 |
S$1.53 |
9.252% |
A$1.11 (NTA) |
1H A5.6142ct @ 1.2585 |
|
MIIF |
1H : Jun-07 |
4.15 |
S$0.88 |
9.432% |
$1.19 |
1H 4.15ct |
|
MacCookPSF |
Q1 : Sep-07 |
A2.31 |
S$0.92 |
12.662% |
A$1.06 |
Q108 A2.31ct @ 1.3144 |
* SPAus and MacCookPSF DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2607) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Jan-08
- SingPost : Q308 (Dec) – 1.25ct ; Q208 (Sep) – 1.25ct ; Q108 (Jun) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 2H07 (Dec) – Final 8.3ct ; 1H07 (Jun) – Interim 2.5ct + Capital Reduction 4.6ct
- SPAus : 1H08 (Sep07) – A5.776ct (before tax) / A5.6142ct (after tax)
- SBSTransit : Q307 (Sep) – 8ct ; Q207 (Jun) – 6ct
- SingTel : Q208 (Sep07) – Interim 5.6ct
- StarHub : Q307 (Sep) – 4ct ; Q207 (Jun) – 4ct ; Q107 (Mar) – 3.5ct
- SMRT : Q208 (Sep07) – Interim 1.75ct
- MacCookPSF : Q108 (Sep07) – A2.625ct (Gross) / A2.31ct (After With-hldg Tax)
- Sing Food : Q307 (Sep) – 1.8ct
- SPH : FY07 (Aug) – Final 9ct + Special 10ct ; Interim (Feb) 7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q207 (Jun) – Interim 3.35ct + Special 4.15ct
- MIIF : 1H07 (Jun) – 4.15ct
- ST Engg : Q207 (Jun) – 2ct
SingPost – UOBKH
3QFY08 earnings rose 7.8% yoy
SingPost reported 3QFY08 net profit of S$36.8m, up 7.8% yoy. Revenue rose 9.2% yoy.
Direct mail was star performer in mail segment. Mail revenue rose 9.5% (or S$8.2m) yoy, and accounted for 77% revenue share, due to mail volume increasing 11.8% yoy. This came on the back of a strong 15.6% rise in bulk mail (80% share of domestic mail), due to a) Direct Mail’s increase of 28.3% (40% share of bulk mail); and b) business and others increasing 5.6%. Public mail (balance 20% share of domestic mail), on the other hand, recorded a 3.3% yoy volume contraction. Correspondingly, mail operating profit rose 7.5% yoy.
Financial services drove retail segment. Retail revenue rose 7.9% (or S$1.1m) yoy. Financial services revenue rose 16.4%, and accounted for 31% of retail revenue.
Underlying operating margin of 37.8% is lower than 3QFY07’s 38.7%. Mail operating margin was 39.3%, narrower than 3QFY07’s 40%. Retail operating margin of 19.2% was also narrower than 3QFY07’s 20.1%, due to a drop in commission rate for agency services. Logistics operating margin of 17.5% is close to 3QFY07’s 17.8%. However, underlying operating margin of 37.8% is wider when compared against 2QFY08’s 37.1%.
Robust cashflow generation. Net cash inflow from operating activities was S$132.9m for 9MFY08, up from 9MFY07’s S$122.6m. 9MFY08 capex was a low S$10.9m, representing 3% of revenue.
High dividend yield. SingPost declared an interim dividend of 1.25¢ ps (to be paid on 29Feb08). SingPost aims to pay a minimum dividend of 5¢ ps per annum. We are forecasting 6.7¢ ps total dividends for FY08 (based on 85% payout ratio), giving a yield of 6.4%, which is higher than 3-mth SIBOR of 1.6%.
SingPost remains a BUY. SingPost is attractive based on our DCF valuation of S$1.33 per share – we have assumed a terminal growth rate of 0.7%, a WACC of 6.3% (which factors in cost of debt of 4.6% and cost of equity of 8.9%).
SMRT – Phillip
Within Expectations
3Q Results. SMRT reported 3Q revenue of S$202.1m (+7.3% yoy) and net profit of S$38.3m (-5.9% yoy). The growth in revenue was due to higher ridership, improved taxi average hired-out fleet and growth from rental and advertising.
On a nine-month basis, revenue of S$593.6m was 6.7% better yoy while the ninemonth net profit of S$115.8m was 16.2% higher yoy.
Performances by various businesses. SMRT registered growth in revenues from all its operations. There was strong growth in MRT (+6.4% yoy), LRT (+5.1% yoy) and taxi (+10.5% yoy) operations while the buses operation posted minor growth in revenue (+1.4% yoy). The increase in average daily ridership resulted in the growth in revenues from the train and buses operations while the higher average hired-out fleet caused the growth in taxi operations. Furthermore, SMRT also saw growth in revenues from rental, advertising as well as engineering and other services.
FY08 Outlook. Management expects revenues from all its operations to increase in 4Q FY08. However, operating expenses are also likely to rise.
Maintain HOLD recommendation, target price at S$1.70. SMRT has posted financial results within our expectations. Moreover, it continues to register increases in revenues and profits. This is a defensive stock for investors who would like to hold for payment of dividends. Based on our discounted cash flow model, the fair value is S$1.70.
M1 – Phillip
Slightly Below Expectations
Net profit dropped in Q4, but rose slightly for the full year FY07. For Q4 FY07, M1 reported operating revenue of S$206.9m (+2.9% yoy) and net profit of S$37.9m (-4.8% yoy). The increase in revenue was due to service revenue growth as the customer base increased from 1,337,000 on a yoy basis to 1,535,000.
The decrease in net profit was due to higher operating costs, which increased to S$160.7m (+7.8% yoy). The increase in operating expenses such as costs of sales, staff costs, depreciation and amortisation, facilities as well as general and administrative expenses more than offset the decrease in advertising and promotion expenses as well as provision for debts.
For the full year FY07, operating revenue of S$803.3m was 3.9% better yoy while the FY07 net profit of S$171.8m was 4.4% higher yoy. Nevertheless, the operating revenue and net profit are below our estimates of S$807.0m (4.6% below expectation) and S$180.0m (4.6% below expectation) respectively.
It has also recommended a final tax-exempt dividend of 8.3 cents per ordinary share. Together with the interim dividend of 2.5 cents per ordinary share, the full year payout is 80% of net profit after tax for 2007.
Outlook for FY08. M1 expects 2008 to be challenging as full mobile number portability will be introduced by the middle of the year. There are also new opportunities as M1, being part of a consortium, prepares to submit a bid to be the Network Company to design, build and operate the passive infrastructure layer fro the Next Generation National Broadband Network (NBN). Barring unforeseen circumstances, it expects operations to remain stable for 2008.
Maintain Hold with fair value reduced to S$2.16. Based on our valuation using the free cash flow to firm model, the target price is reduced from S$2.38 to S$2.16 due to lower-than-expected profit for FY07 and reduced estimates for revenues from FY08 onwards. M1 remains a hold as growth in revenues and profits are likely to be limited due to its focus on the domestic market.