Month: September 2009
SMRT – BT
SMRT Capital’s debut $150m note issue well received
Orderbook closed within half hour of launch with 2 times oversubscription
The debut $150 million note issue of SMRT Corp’s wholly owned subsidiary, SMRT Capital, has attracted strong demand.
‘Strong interest from bond investors resulted in the orderbook being more than two times oversubscribed and closed within half an hour of the launch of the notes,’ SMRT said yesterday.
The five-year 2.42 per cent fixed rate notes are issued under SMRT Cap’s $1 billion multi-currency guaranteed medium term note programme and are expected to be issued on Oct 7 and mature in 2014. SMRT guarantees the servicing of the notes. Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation acted as sole lead manager and bookrunner of the notes and sole arranger of the programme.
The programme has been rated AAA by Standard & Poor’s.
The net proceeds arising from the issue of the notes will be used to finance the general corporate funding requirements of SMRT and its subsidiaries.
The issue of the notes represents SMRT Cap’s debut visit to the bond markets and is the first bond issue from the SMRT group since December 2006.
The deal was priced on Wednesday at about 10 basis points above the five-year Singapore-dollar Swap Offer Rate, the tightest five-year pricing for a Singapore domiciled corporate since January 2007.
Executive vice-president and chief financial officer for SMRT Corp Lim Cheng Cheng said: ‘We are very pleased with the keen investor response to our issue. This issue helps us re-establish SMRT’s presence in the Singapore-dollar bond markets in a very positive manner.’
Amit Gupta, managing director and head of global markets for HSBC in Singapore, said: ‘We are privileged and honoured to have brought a premium institution like SMRT to the Singapore-dollar bond market. By leveraging on HSBC’s strong capital markets platform and local knowledge, we were able to execute a broadly distributed transaction for SMRT Capital at the tightest five-year pricing level achieved in the Singapore-dollar bond market since January 2007.’
Temasek-linked companies (TLCs) have been on a fund-raising spree over the past few months as they take advantage of a recovering economic outlook to tap the financial markets to build up war chests ahead of potential future deals. For some, such a move will also improve their debt positions.
Six TLCs have raised a massive $10.5 billion from rights issues since December.
In July, SMRT said it is acquiring a 49 per cent stake in Shenzhen transport company Shenzhen Zona Transportation Group for 320 million yuan (S$68 million). SMRT said its first investment in a Chinese company is a beachhead for its expansion into China. SMRT said at its Q1FY10 results briefing that it sees a tough year ahead with continued volatility in diesel prices, the effects of the fare reduction package and the ramp-up costs for the opening of the remaining Circle Line stations.
SingTel – BT
Telstra break-up long overdue, says Optus
Telstra has been accused of charging unfair fees
In a bid to curb Telstra Corp’s long-standing dominance, the Australian government plans to force the once state-owned monopoly to split up its retail and wholesale businesses, a move which rival Optus describes as being ‘long overdue’.
Under the draft legislation unveiled yesterday, Telstra will be barred from buying new licences for wireless broadband services if it does not fall in line, according to Australia’s Communications Minister Stephen Conroy.
If enforced, the curb would cut Telstra out of a fast-growing market segment that could eclipse the size of Australia’s fixed-line Internet segment.
With high-speed broadband connectivity being confined mainly to the cities, wireless Internet technology is widely seen as the key to linking up the rest of the country.
‘The government’s strategy on separation is to make Telstra an offer it cannot refuse. Separate yourself, or have separation done for you,’ according to technology research firm Ovum.
Telstra, which has long opposed a break-up, deemed the government proposal as ‘unnecessary’ and said it was disappointed with the result, a view not shared by Singapore Telecommunications’ Australian unit Optus.
‘The Federal Government today made an important step in reforming the telecommunications sector. It is now up to the parliament, Telstra and the rest of the industry to ensure this long overdue reform becomes a reality,’ Optus CEO Paul O’Sullivan said in a statement.
The new government legislation comes amid growing calls for a Telstra split in some government quarters, as well as among the country’s competition regulator and other local telecommunications players.
With its ownership of extensive telecommunications infrastructure, Telstra has constantly been accused of charging unfair fees and delaying access to its network nodes.
Mr Conroy was previously quoted as saying that Telstra’s current structure is a ‘complete joke’ that is stalling the country’s plans to build a pervasive, high- speed broadband network.
Telstra was barred from taking part in the tender for this project last year. However, other bidders also returned empty handed as authorities eventually decided to take on the task themselves.
To comply with the proposed government mandate, Telstra may have to divest its fixed-line business or move some services to the new government network. The key is to make Telstra ‘structurally separate’, Mr Conroy said.
‘The measures in this legislation will finally correct the mistakes of the past. The government will require the functional separation of Telstra unless it decides to voluntarily structurally separate,’ he said in a Reuters report
‘However, separation takes time to accomplish, because separation requires IT systems to be redesigned or even duplicated. While the government will seek agreement by year’s end, a separation process might take two years to fully execute,’ Ovum cautioned.
In Singapore, a similar requirement has been applied to the ongoing Next- Gen NBN (National Broadband Network) project.
Under the Singapore model, the company in charge of building the new network will need to be ‘structurally separate’ from the firm that is managing the fibre-optic broadband highway.
The Singapore authorities believe the separation clause will curb unfair practices and spark competition in the market for providing high-speed Internet services.
TELCOs – OCBC
Positive 2QCY09 Scorecard; Maintain Overweight
2QCY09 results resilient as expected. All the three telcos – MobileOne (M1), SingTel and StarHub – reported a pretty resilient set of results recently. Both M1 and SingTel earnings were slightly ahead of our forecast; StarHub’s earnings were in-line. Overall, their earnings demonstrated the resilience of the telcos.
Review of operations. On the mobile front, we note that consumer spending (ARPU) has rebounded despite the economic downturn – partly aided by the growth in mobile data usage. Acquisition costs have also started to trend up again for both M1 and StarHub; M1 has shown the sharpest increase but it has managed to bring its churn rate down. On the broadband front, new additions have stagnated and ARPUs for SingTel and StarHub have declined further. On the PayTV front, StarHub has managed to maintain both its subscriber base and ARPU; SingTel has recently announced that its mio TV subscription have exceeded 100,000.
Stable outlook for rest of 2009. Going forward, all the three telcos expect their Singapore operations to remain stable or show slight growth, with EBITDA margins remaining relatively steady; this as they strive to reduce costs to keep pace with the expected softening in operating revenue. But due to their strong cashflow-generative businesses, the telcos have largely kept their dividend payout guidance; M1 to pay at least 80% of underlying net profit; SingTel to pay 45-60% of underlying earnings; StarHub to pay S$0.18/share, or S$0.045/share per quarter.
BPL uncertainty looms but we are not perturbed. The broadcast rights of the 2010-2012 BPL (Barclays Premier League) would be up for grabs and StarHub’s PayTV business would be affected if it fails to secure the rights. However, we are not perturbed. Yes, SingTel may be looking to add more exclusive content but based on its current mio TV subscriber base, it may not be able to fully maximize the investment. But come 2012, SingTel would be in a better position to benefit as the NBN will fully come onstream.
Maintain Overweight. Although there has been a steady switch into highbeta stocks on hopes of a rapid recovery in both the economy and corporate earnings, we are not entirely convinced. And until we see more concrete signs of a rapid recovery, we would still advocate holding on to these defensive counters for their attractive dividend yields and as a means of diversification. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
SingPost – OCBC
Time to factor in growth possibilities
Bumping up earnings estimates. We have tweaked our earnings estimates to take into account G3 Worldwide Aspac (G3AP)’s contribution to the group’s revenue. We had earlier refrained from doing so given the uncertainty of its impact in the face of a fragile global economy. Although the general mood is still cautious given that government stimulus packages have not resulted in a sustained recovery in consumer spending (amongst other risks present in the global system), we now deem it appropriate to increase our earnings estimates by about 6% to incorporate G3AP’s earnings. Overseas revenue now accounts for 8.2% of total revenue compared to only 0.4% previously.
Recovery underway but not time to party. Composite leading indicators of key OECD countries are continuing their upward trend after reaching their inflexion points around 1Q09. 2Q09 GDP growth cues have also been largely positive, especially for Asian economies. While there are still doubts on fundamental recovery in the financial markets, there is no denying that an improvement in investor sentiment has allowed companies and banks to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. However, certain risks, such as 1) deteriorating personal credit and loans in the US, 2) possible build-up of asset bubbles in China, and 3) possible weak private sector spending in major economies after government stimulus plans wear off, threaten to destabilise the global economy and hence Singapore’s economy. As SingPost’s earnings are significantly correlated with Singapore’s GDP growth, it is worth noting the possible trajectories of the global economy.
Worldwide postal sector only feeling a pinch. According to a Universal Postal Union survey, postal operators are definitely feeling the effects of the crisis, but are “not showing signs of an economic depression”. Shares of listed postal operators have performed well during this crisis, given their relatively defensive nature. Besides having a decent dividend yield, SingPost is also pursuing growth, as seen by its recent M&A deals, enhancing the attractiveness of the stock.
Maintain BUY. SingPost is still the dominant player in Singapore’s postal industry despite threats from new competitors, and we foresee its strong operating and free cash flows to continue to buttress its reputation as a stable and well-run business. Meanwhile, it is taking the opportunity to grow its regional network during this downturn, which is definitely a positive development. With the incorporation of G3AP’s future earnings, we have also raised our fair value estimate to S$1.09 (prev S$0.97). Maintain BUY.
SPH – UOBKH
4QFY09 Results Preview: Advertising Revenue Has Turned The Corner
Improving advertising spending. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) will most likely be releasing its 4QFY09 (June – August) results on 12 October. We are expecting a newspaper advertising revenue (AR) contraction of 15% for 4QFY09, an improvement on 3QFY09’s 23% contraction. While AR is still below the level a year ago, it has been making a comeback since April, boosted by Singapore’s residential property boom.
Investment income could surprise on the upside, in view of better financial market conditions. As of end-May 09, SPH had an investible fund of S$0.9b comprising 44.4% cash, 28.7% equities, 14.2% bonds and 12.7% investment funds.
We estimate final DPS of 13-16 cents. A DPS of 13 cents being our worst-case scenario premised on a full-year payout ratio of 86% of earnings and 16 cents is our best-case scenario premised on a payout ratio of 98%. Including the interim DPS of 7 cents that has already been paid, full-year FY09 DPS would be 20 cents and 23 cents respectively (FY08 DPS: 27 cents).
IRs to have a multiplier effect on advertising spending. We believe Singapore’s integrated resorts (IR) will have a positive multiplier impact on consumer spending and hence, advertising spending. At current share price, SPH offers attractive FY10 and FY11 annual dividend yields of 6.5%. Maintain BUY with a target price of S$4.40.