Month: January 2011
January 2011
Results Announcement
- 14 Jan 11 : SPH (Q111) – EPS 6ct
- 19 Jan 11 : M1 (Q410) – EPS 4.2ct (todate 17.5ct) ; Div 7.7ct (Final) + 3.5ct (Special) (todate 17.5ct)
- 28 Jan 11 : SMRT (Q311) – EPS 2.8ct (todate 8.4ct)
- 28 Jan 11 : SingPost (Q311) – EPS 2.281ct (todate 6.445ct) ; Div 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
- 11 Feb 11 : StarHub (Q410)
- 14 Feb 11 : ComfortDelgro (Q410)
- 14 Feb 11 : SBSTransit (Q410)
STI = 3179.72 (-49.97)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY10 (Aug) |
31 |
27 |
$3.97 |
6.801% |
12.81 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 11ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY10 (Mar) |
8.563 |
6.25 |
$1.18 |
5.297% |
13.78 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Dec-10 |
— |
3.5 |
$3.23 |
2.167% |
— |
Dec10 3.5ct ; Jun10 3ct |
|
SATS |
FY10 (Mar) |
16.7 |
13 |
$2.78 |
4.676% |
16.65 |
Final 8ct ; Interim 5ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY09 (Dec) |
14.78 |
13.3 |
$3.24 |
4.099% |
21.92 |
Final 4ct + 6.28ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY09 (Dec) |
17.75 |
8.8 |
$2.11 |
4.171% |
11.89 |
Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY09 (Dec) |
10.52 |
5.3 |
$1.58 |
3.354% |
15.02 |
Interim 2.63ct ; Final 2.67ct |
|
SMRT |
FY10 (Mar) |
10.7 |
8.5 |
$2.04 |
4.167% |
19.07 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY10 (Mar) |
24.55 |
14.2 |
$3.10 |
4.581% |
12.63 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 8ct |
|
M1 |
FY10 (Dec) |
17.5 |
17.5 |
$2.45 |
7.143% |
14.00 |
Interim 6.3ct ; Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct |
|
StarHub |
FY09 (Dec) |
18.68 |
19 |
$2.55 |
7.451% |
13.65 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H10 (Mar-10) |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.130 |
9.012% |
A$0.91 |
2H10 A4.0ct ; 1H10 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun10 |
1.50 |
$0.585 |
5.128% |
$0.830 |
2H09 1.5ct ; 1H09 1.5ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2729) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Jan-11
- SingPost : Q311 (Dec10) – 1.25ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – 1.25ct ; Q111 (Jun10) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 2H10 (Dec) – Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct ; 1H10 (Jun) – Interim 6.3ct
- SingTel : 1H11 (Sep10) – Interim 6.8ct
- SPAus : 1H11 (Sep10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7772ct (after tax) ; 2H10 (Mar10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7739ct (after tax)
- StarHub : Q310 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q210 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q110 (Mar) – 5ct
- SATSvcs : Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 2H10 (Aug) – 20ct ; 1H10 (Feb) – 7ct
- SBSTransit : Q210 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q210 (Jun) – 2.7ct
- MIIF : 1H10 (Jun) – 1.5ct
- ST Engg : Q210 (Jun) – 3ct
- StarHub : FY10 Div Policy 20ct ie. 5ct/Q
M1 – Kim Eng
Stay invested
What's New
• Special dividends could become the normal order of business for M1 as capital needs stabilise. Following the declaration of a special DPS of $0.03, management has promised to regularly review the company's capital structure. Depending on comfort level viz gearing, additional payouts could range from $0.03 to $0.21 a share. Beyond this, 2011 prospects are also becoming more concrete and exciting.
Our View
• Although M1 did not declare more than $0.03/share in special dividends in FY10, we expect to see more capital management initiatives given management's promise to "regularly review" its capital structure. Given its healthy net debt/EBITDA of 1.0x, stable working capital requirements and consistent capex, we continue to put M1 on our list of capital management candidates.
• By our estimates, M1 will have the flexibility to pay a further S$0.03/share in special dividends by the end of FY11 even if it maintains its net debt/EBITDA ratio at a rather conservative 1.0x. This will rise to $0.21/share if it gears up to a more aggressive 1.5x, still a level that management has, in the past, expressed it is comfortable gearing up to.
• Business‐wise, M1's traction is gathering strength. It expects full year earnings growth, with a key driver being mobile data (est. 30% penetration vs 150% for mobile voice) due to the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones and in particular, tablet computers. It will also enhance its fixed service offerings and more aggressively target the underserved SME market.
Action & Recommendation
We believe this is just the beginning of an exciting year for M1 and investors should stay invested. The share price may see some consolidation given the recent outperformance, but at 13x PE and 6% yield, we reckon the best is yet to be.
ComfortDelgro – DMG
New taxi licence award in Chengdu, China
ComfortDelGro (CD) becomes the 2nd largest taxi operator in Chengdu with latest taxi licence award. CD’s wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi Co has been awarded 800 new taxi licences by the Chengdu Municipal Government. Based on the assumption that the 800 new Sagitar taxis will be added gradually throughout 2011, we raised our FY11F-FY12F PATMI by 0.4%-1.0% respectively. Our TP is also raised marginally from S$1.85 to S$1.87 based on discounted cash flow valuation (WACC: 8.8%; Terminal growth rate: 1.3%). Maintain BUY.
First foray into Chengdu taxi market began in 2004. CD’s taxi operations in Chengdu began in 2004 when it entered into a joint venture with a local entrepreneur to operate 90 taxis for RMB26m. Subsequently, CD augmented its taxi fleet size to 250 in Chengdu via taxi licence award in 2007 and acquisitions of existing licences. Following the latest licence win, CD’s taxi fleet size in Chengdu will be augmented to 1,050 by end 2011. Assuming a Sagitar taxi costs around RMB1205-RMB170k, we think that the incremental capex for the taxi fleet size expansion is ~S$20m-S$30m. The new licences will be renewed annually at RMB10k/licence/year. Separately, we estimate the 800 new Sagitar taxi additions will add S$1m-S$3m to CD’s bottomline a year.
Latest win proves CD is well-positioned for overseas growth. We continue to believe that CD enjoys better overseas growth opportunities over SMRT given its sizeable presence in both emerging and developed markets like China (9M10: 12% EBIT), Australia (9M10: 16% EBIT), and UK/Ireland (9M10: 13% EBIT). Despite the greater growth potential, CD is currently trading at a cheaper valuation of 14x FY11F PATMI vis-à-vis SMRT’s 18x FY11F PATMI. Hence, we reiterate our preference for CD over SMRT within the land transport sector. Key risks of CD are i) adverse forex movements, ii) sharp rise in oil price, and iii) liberalisation of bus sector in Singapore which may undermine CD’s dominant position.
ComfortDelgro – DMG
New taxi licence award in Chengdu, China
ComfortDelGro (CD) becomes the 2nd largest taxi operator in Chengdu with latest taxi licence award. CD’s wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi Co has been awarded 800 new taxi licences by the Chengdu Municipal Government. Based on the assumption that the 800 new Sagitar taxis will be added gradually throughout 2011, we raised our FY11F-FY12F PATMI by 0.4%-1.0% respectively. Our TP is also raised marginally from S$1.85 to S$1.87 based on discounted cash flow valuation (WACC: 8.8%; Terminal growth rate: 1.3%). Maintain BUY.
First foray into Chengdu taxi market began in 2004. CD’s taxi operations in Chengdu began in 2004 when it entered into a joint venture with a local entrepreneur to operate 90 taxis for RMB26m. Subsequently, CD augmented its taxi fleet size to 250 in Chengdu via taxi licence award in 2007 and acquisitions of existing licences. Following the latest licence win, CD’s taxi fleet size in Chengdu will be augmented to 1,050 by end 2011. Assuming a Sagitar taxi costs around RMB1205-RMB170k, we think that the incremental capex for the taxi fleet size expansion is ~S$20m-S$30m. The new licences will be renewed annually at RMB10k/licence/year. Separately, we estimate the 800 new Sagitar taxi additions will add S$1m-S$3m to CD’s bottomline a year.
Latest win proves CD is well-positioned for overseas growth. We continue to believe that CD enjoys better overseas growth opportunities over SMRT given its sizeable presence in both emerging and developed markets like China (9M10: 12% EBIT), Australia (9M10: 16% EBIT), and UK/Ireland (9M10: 13% EBIT). Despite the greater growth potential, CD is currently trading at a cheaper valuation of 14x FY11F PATMI vis-à-vis SMRT’s 18x FY11F PATMI. Hence, we reiterate our preference for CD over SMRT within the land transport sector. Key risks of CD are i) adverse forex movements, ii) sharp rise in oil price, and iii) liberalisation of bus sector in Singapore which may undermine CD’s dominant position.
ComfortDelgro – BT
Comfort DelGro gets 800 new licences in Chengdu
COMFORTDELGRO Corporation, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi Co Ltd, has been awarded 800 new taxi licences by the Chengdu Municipal Government, making it the second largest taxi operator in the city with 1,050 taxis.
With the new licences, Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi will be placing an order for 800 new Sagitar taxis to supplement the existing fleet, the group said.
It will then have just 146 fewer taxis than its largest competitor, which has 1,196 taxis.
The licences, which cost about 10,000 yuan (S$1,950) each annually, represent the largest number the municipal government has ever awarded to a single operator in recent times, according to Comfort.
Including the latest Chengdu addition, ComfortDelGro now operates close to 36,000 taxis worldwide.
Of this, about 10,600 are in China – representing over two-thirds the size of the Singapore fleet. Besides taxi services, the group also operates car rental and leasing services, a vehicle inspection centre and a driving school in Chengdu.
The group aims to derive 70 per cent of its total revenue from overseas within the next four to six years.