Author: kktan

 

SMRT – CIMB

Stuck on a stalled train

SMRT’s FY13 profit missed expectations as cost inflation outpaced revenue growth. Margin pain will persist until SMRT moves to a more sustainable business model. Until then, not only are profits at risk, so are dividends.

 

Dividend payout was cut to 45% vs. its previous 60% policy. FY13 core net profit met only 92% of our and consensus estimates. We cut our FY14-15 EPS estimates by 21-27% and introduce FY16. Our target price (DCF, WACC 6.5%) falls to S$1.26. Maintain Underperform, de-rating catalysts are earnings and dividend disappointments.

Costs bite

We expect margin compression to persist as costs outpace revenue growth. SMRT’s revenue grew 2.4% to S$281m in 4Q13 but operating profit tumbled 72% to S$10.9m as higher repair and maintenance, staff and depreciation charges ate into profits. These resulted in an 85% drop in core net profit to S$5.4m. A S$17m impairment in its associate dragged the group into a S$12m loss for the quarter.

Dividend cut a surprise

We were surprised by the cut in the dividend payout ratio to just 45% (final dividend of 1 Sct vs. 5.7 Scts last year). Not only is this lower than the 94% paid last year, it is also below our 60% assumption, which was in line with its previous dividend policy. Management refrained from committing to a dividend policy in light of upcoming capex intensity, suggesting that future payouts are uncertain.

No light in sight

We see the risk of more earnings and dividend disappointment. SMRT’s priority to improve service standards entails spending to build a larger, newer fleet and incurring higher opex for headcount expansion, more stringent repairs and maintenance schedules, higher depreciation for a larger fleet and higher energy consumption for increased train and bus runs. Revenue growth will lag cost inflation. Margins remain at risk.

April 2013

Results Announcement

  • 12 Apr 13 : SPH (Q213) – EPS 4ct (todate 10ct) ; Div 7ct
  • 16 Apr 13 : M1 (Q113) – EPS 4.5ct
  • 23 Apr 13 : HLFin (Q113) – Annualised EPS 13.82ct
  • 30 Apr 13 (AM) : SMRT (Q413) – EPS -0.8ct (todate 5.5ct) ; Div 1ct (todate 2.5ct)
  • 7 May 13 : STEng (Q113)
  • 9 May 13 : StarHub (Q113)
  • 13 May 13 : SBSTransit (Q113)
  • 14 May 13 : ComfortDelgro (Q113)
  • 15 May 13 (AM) : SATS (Q413)

 

STI = 3368.18 (+6.26)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY12 (Dec)

17.60

12.00

$2.780

4.317%

15.80

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY12 (Mar)

7.407

6.25

$1.290

4.845%

17.42

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY12 (Aug)

23

24.0

$4.460

5.381%

19.39

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY12 (Mar)

15.40

26.0

$3.150

8.254%

20.45

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct

SIA Engg

FY12 (Mar)

24.56

21.0

$5.060

4.150%

20.60

Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY12 (Dec)

18.76

16.8

$4.400

3.818%

23.45

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 9.8ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY12 (Dec)

6.01

3.00

$1.480

2.027%

24.63

Interim 1.35ct ; Final 1.65ct

ComfortDelGro

FY12 (Dec)

11.89

6.40

$1.985

3.224%

16.69

Interim 2.9ct ; Final 3.5ct

SMRT

FY13 (Mar)

5.5

2.50

$1.480

1.689%

26.91

Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY12 (Mar)

25.04

15.8

$3.930

4.020%

15.69

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct

M1

FY12 (Dec)

16.1

14.6

$3.380

4.320%

20.99

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct

StarHub

FY12 (Dec)

20.93

20

$4.730

4.228%

22.60

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

1H – Sep12

A4.1 (Gross)

$1.605

6.516%

$1.300

1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H12 A4.0ct

MIIF

2H – Dec12

5.75

$0.625

8.800%

$0.700

1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special)

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2753) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 30-Apr-13
  • SMRT : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 1.0ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SPH : 1H13 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
  • HLFin : 1H12 (Jun) – 4ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 8ct (Final)
  • ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 9.8ct (Special)
  • ComfortDelgro : Q412 (Dec) – 3.5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
  • StarHub : FY13 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct ; Q412 (Dec) – 1.65ct
  • M1 : 2H12 (Dec) – Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct ; 1H12 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
  • MIIF : 1H12 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 2.75ct (Final) + 3ct (Special) ; Above Yield is Computed without Special Dividend
  • SingPost : Q313 (Dec12) – 1.25ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – 1.25ct ; Q113 (Jun12) – 1.25ct
  • SingTel : 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct
  • SPAus : 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
  • SATSvcs : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
  • StarHub : Q312 (sep) – 5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SIAEC : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
  • SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)

 

 

TELCOs – OSK DMG

SingTel Asked To Cross-Carry BPL Content

Singapore’s Media Development Authority (MDA) has directed SingTel to cross-carry the Barclays Premier League (BPL) for the 2013-2016 season starting in August. We are surprised by the directive but view it as favorable for StarHub as it would help to mitigate pay-TV churn. StarHub subscribers would now have access to the iconic content without a second set-top box. The decision is, however, negative for SingTel as it has to share content as well as bear the associated cross carriage costs despite having signed for the BPL on non-exclusive terms. We are keeping our NEUTRAL ratings on both companies given the recent strong share price re-rating for the sector. StarHub remains our preferred exposure to Singapore telecoms.

Getting a fair play. MDA’s directive was in response to the complaint filed by StarHub in February on its inability to negotiate for separate rights to the BPL. Media reports have said that SingTel had built in ‘restrictive conditions’ after inking the non-exclusive agreement with the Football Association Premier League (FAPL). This was said to have prevented the FAPL from commencing negotiations with other parties for an extended period of time.

Positive for StarHub. StarHub welcomes the development and sees pay-TV subscribers as the ultimate beneficiaries. We gather from management that it had capitalized on a provision within the cross carriage guidelines which stipulate that non-exclusive content can be shared if the agreement signed by another provider contained certain clauses which prevent or restrict, or are likely to prevent or restrict, the same content from being acquired or otherwise obtained for transmission on selected pay-TV platforms in Singapore.

SingTel to file an appeal. SingTel said it is “gravely disappointed” with MDA’s decision as it would ”disadvantage” both consumers and the industry. The company would appeal the decision and seek legal recourse, if necessary. Management believes the directive will discourage pay-TV operators from acting swiftly in the future to procure top quality content as this penalizes the operator and would see consumers losing out since it may no longer be economically viable for broadcasters to continue investing in quality programming for the benefit of consumers and businesses.

The red camp may play hardball. We believe SingTel could still make it difficult for StarHub’s subscribers to access the BPL with commercial terms of carriage that may be less favorable. SingTel is caught in a bind as it is mandated to charge other viewers the same rate it charges its own customers. The directive is negative for SingTel as it forces the company to share the content – although signed on a non-exclusive basis – and bear all costs associated with the carriage cost.

TELCOs – OSK DMG

SingTel Asked To Cross-Carry BPL Content

Singapore’s Media Development Authority (MDA) has directed SingTel to cross-carry the Barclays Premier League (BPL) for the 2013-2016 season starting in August. We are surprised by the directive but view it as favorable for StarHub as it would help to mitigate pay-TV churn. StarHub subscribers would now have access to the iconic content without a second set-top box. The decision is, however, negative for SingTel as it has to share content as well as bear the associated cross carriage costs despite having signed for the BPL on non-exclusive terms. We are keeping our NEUTRAL ratings on both companies given the recent strong share price re-rating for the sector. StarHub remains our preferred exposure to Singapore telecoms.

Getting a fair play. MDA’s directive was in response to the complaint filed by StarHub in February on its inability to negotiate for separate rights to the BPL. Media reports have said that SingTel had built in ‘restrictive conditions’ after inking the non-exclusive agreement with the Football Association Premier League (FAPL). This was said to have prevented the FAPL from commencing negotiations with other parties for an extended period of time.

Positive for StarHub. StarHub welcomes the development and sees pay-TV subscribers as the ultimate beneficiaries. We gather from management that it had capitalized on a provision within the cross carriage guidelines which stipulate that non-exclusive content can be shared if the agreement signed by another provider contained certain clauses which prevent or restrict, or are likely to prevent or restrict, the same content from being acquired or otherwise obtained for transmission on selected pay-TV platforms in Singapore.

SingTel to file an appeal. SingTel said it is “gravely disappointed” with MDA’s decision as it would ”disadvantage” both consumers and the industry. The company would appeal the decision and seek legal recourse, if necessary. Management believes the directive will discourage pay-TV operators from acting swiftly in the future to procure top quality content as this penalizes the operator and would see consumers losing out since it may no longer be economically viable for broadcasters to continue investing in quality programming for the benefit of consumers and businesses.

The red camp may play hardball. We believe SingTel could still make it difficult for StarHub’s subscribers to access the BPL with commercial terms of carriage that may be less favorable. SingTel is caught in a bind as it is mandated to charge other viewers the same rate it charges its own customers. The directive is negative for SingTel as it forces the company to share the content – although signed on a non-exclusive basis – and bear all costs associated with the carriage cost.

TELCOs – CIMB

 

SingTel directed to share BPL

In a surprising move, the regulator has directed SingTel to cross-carry the 2013-16 seasons of the Barclays Premier League. This is despite SingTel having non-exclusive rights to the BPL, which allows it to not share its content. This raises the question of MDA over-ruling again.

StarHub stands to gain a little as this lowers the likelihood of churns and generates revenues from providing cross carriage. It is a setback for SingTel in its efforts to build up a pay TV franchise. All in, this development does not change our forecasts and views on SingTel and StarHub. The sector remains a Neutral with M1 (Outperform) as our top pick.

What Happened

In a surprising move, the Media Development Authority (MDA) has directed SingTel to cross-carry Barclays Premier League (BPL) 2013-16 seasons. This is despite SingTel acquiring the rights to the BPL on a non-exclusive basis, which it is not required to share. SingTel said it will “appeal this decision and seek legal recourse if necessary”. It added that customers who wish to watch BPL on its own (via cross carriage) will most likely have to pay significantly higher monthly fees.

What We Think

MDA’s decision surprised us as it contradicts its cross-carriage ruling that was enforced in March 2010. The MDA ruled that holders of exclusive content are obligated to open their content while holders of non-exclusive content are not required to share. With this about-turn, it raises the question of MDA over-ruling again in the future. This is a major setback for SingTel in its quest to capture a bigger piece of the pay TV pie. By having to share the BPL, SingTel’s ability to have users sign up to mio TV is sharply reduced. This ruling is a small positive for StarHub as its customers can now subscribe for BPL directly from SingTel without having to sign up with SingTel’s overall pay TV service. This reduces the likelihood of StarHub’s customers leaving for SingTel.

What You Should Do

Stay invested in M1, our top Singapore telco pick. While positive for StarHub, this regulatory outcome does not change our Neutral recommendation on StarHub. The negative impact on SingTel reinforces our Underperform recommendation on the stock.