Author: kktan
August 2012
Results Announcement
- 8 Aug 12 (AM) : MIIF (1H12) – DPU 2.75ct
- 8 Aug 12 : StarHub (Q212) – EPS 5.06ct (todate 10.21ct) ; Div 5ct (todate 10ct)
- 10 Aug 12 : SBSTransit (Q212) – EPS 1.47ct (todate 3.04ct) ; Div 1.35ct vs Q211 3.1ct
- 10 Aug 12 : HLFin (Q212) – EPS 13.34ct Annualised ; Div 4ct
- 13 Aug 12 : ComfortDelgro (Q212) – EPS 3.11ct vs Q211 2.87ct ; Div 2.9ct vs Q211 2.7ct
- 14 Aug 12 (AM) : SingTel (Q112) – EPS 5.93ct vs Q111 5.53ct
- 14 Aug 12 : STEng (Q212) – EPS 4.67ct vs Q211 4.29ct ; Div 3ct (unchanged)
STI = 3025.46 (+13.64)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY11 (Dec) |
22.65 |
12.00 |
$2.410 |
4.979% |
10.64 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY12 (Mar) |
7.407 |
6.25 |
$1.080 |
5.787% |
14.58 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY11 (Aug) |
24 |
24.0 |
$3.970 |
6.045% |
16.54 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY12 (Mar) |
15.40 |
26.0 |
$2.610 |
9.962% |
16.95 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY12 (Mar) |
24.56 |
21.0 |
$4.190 |
5.012% |
17.06 |
Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY11 (Dec) |
17.28 |
15.5 |
$3.410 |
4.545% |
19.73 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8.5ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY11 (Dec) |
11.89 |
5.90 |
$1.480 |
3.986% |
12.45 |
Interim 3.1ct ; Final 2.8ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY11 (Dec) |
11.27 |
6.00 |
$1.675 |
3.582% |
14.86 |
Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct |
|
SMRT |
FY12 (Mar) |
7.9 |
7.45 |
$1.660 |
4.488% |
21.01 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY12 (Mar) |
25.04 |
15.8 |
$3.390 |
4.661% |
13.54 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct |
|
M1 |
FY11 (Dec) |
18.1 |
14.5 |
$2.560 |
5.664% |
14.14 |
Interim 6.6ct ; Final 7.9ct |
|
StarHub |
FY11 (Dec) |
18.40 |
20 |
$3.610 |
5.540% |
19.62 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar12 |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.345 |
7.670% |
A$0.88 |
2H12 A4.0ct ; 1H12 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun12 |
2.75 |
$0.525 |
10.476% |
$0.720 |
1H11 2.75ct ; 2H11 2.75ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2896) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Aug-12
- ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
- SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct
- StarHub : Q212 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
- MIIF : 1H12 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H11 (Dec) – 2.75ct ; Guidance for 2H12 (Dec) = 2.75ct but FY13 will be Impacted by HNE (Revenue Reduced by 20% – 25% due to Max Toll Cap)
- SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)
- SATSvcs : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 6ct + Special 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 2H12 (Mar12) – Final 9ct ; 1H12 (Sep11) – Interim 6.8ct ; Includes Exceptional Net Tax Credit S$270M
- SIAEC : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 6ct
- SMRT : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 5.7ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 1.75ct
- SingPost : Q412 (Mar12) – 2.5ct ; Q312 (Dec11) – 1.25ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – 1.25ct ; Q112 (Jun11) – 1.25ct
- SPH : 1H12 (Feb) – 7ct
- StarHub : FY12 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- M1 : 2H11 (Dec) – Final 7.9ct ; 1H11 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
August 2012
Results Announcement
- 8 Aug 12 (AM) : MIIF (1H12) – DPU 2.75ct
- 8 Aug 12 : StarHub (Q212) – EPS 5.06ct (todate 10.21ct) ; Div 5ct (todate 10ct)
- 10 Aug 12 : SBSTransit (Q212) – EPS 1.47ct (todate 3.04ct) ; Div 1.35ct vs Q211 3.1ct
- 10 Aug 12 : HLFin (Q212) – EPS 13.34ct Annualised ; Div 4ct
- 13 Aug 12 : ComfortDelgro (Q212) – EPS 3.11ct vs Q211 2.87ct ; Div 2.9ct vs Q211 2.7ct
- 14 Aug 12 (AM) : SingTel (Q112) – EPS 5.93ct vs Q111 5.53ct
- 14 Aug 12 : STEng (Q212) – EPS 4.67ct vs Q211 4.29ct ; Div 3ct (unchanged)
STI = 3025.46 (+13.64)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY11 (Dec) |
22.65 |
12.00 |
$2.410 |
4.979% |
10.64 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY12 (Mar) |
7.407 |
6.25 |
$1.080 |
5.787% |
14.58 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY11 (Aug) |
24 |
24.0 |
$3.970 |
6.045% |
16.54 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY12 (Mar) |
15.40 |
26.0 |
$2.610 |
9.962% |
16.95 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY12 (Mar) |
24.56 |
21.0 |
$4.190 |
5.012% |
17.06 |
Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY11 (Dec) |
17.28 |
15.5 |
$3.410 |
4.545% |
19.73 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8.5ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY11 (Dec) |
11.89 |
5.90 |
$1.480 |
3.986% |
12.45 |
Interim 3.1ct ; Final 2.8ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY11 (Dec) |
11.27 |
6.00 |
$1.675 |
3.582% |
14.86 |
Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct |
|
SMRT |
FY12 (Mar) |
7.9 |
7.45 |
$1.660 |
4.488% |
21.01 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY12 (Mar) |
25.04 |
15.8 |
$3.390 |
4.661% |
13.54 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct |
|
M1 |
FY11 (Dec) |
18.1 |
14.5 |
$2.560 |
5.664% |
14.14 |
Interim 6.6ct ; Final 7.9ct |
|
StarHub |
FY11 (Dec) |
18.40 |
20 |
$3.610 |
5.540% |
19.62 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar12 |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.345 |
7.670% |
A$0.88 |
2H12 A4.0ct ; 1H12 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun12 |
2.75 |
$0.525 |
10.476% |
$0.720 |
1H11 2.75ct ; 2H11 2.75ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2896) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Aug-12
- ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
- SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct
- StarHub : Q212 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
- MIIF : 1H12 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H11 (Dec) – 2.75ct ; Guidance for 2H12 (Dec) = 2.75ct but FY13 will be Impacted by HNE (Revenue Reduced by 20% – 25% due to Max Toll Cap)
- SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)
- SATSvcs : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 6ct + Special 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 2H12 (Mar12) – Final 9ct ; 1H12 (Sep11) – Interim 6.8ct ; Includes Exceptional Net Tax Credit S$270M
- SIAEC : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 6ct
- SMRT : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 5.7ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 1.75ct
- SingPost : Q412 (Mar12) – 2.5ct ; Q312 (Dec11) – 1.25ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – 1.25ct ; Q112 (Jun11) – 1.25ct
- SPH : 1H12 (Feb) – 7ct
- StarHub : FY12 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- M1 : 2H11 (Dec) – Final 7.9ct ; 1H11 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
SingPost – OCBC
PROPERTY SPIN-OFF A BONUS; BUY FOR DEFENSIVENESS
- Recent listings highlight buoyant mood
- May be an opportune time
- But group is cash rich
Property spinoffs gathering pace, though mainly hospitality
With current high property prices in Singapore, an increasing number of companies have listed their property assets due to favourable valuations, though these have been mostly limited to hospitality assets so far this year.
SingPost is rich
Besides having a dominant presence in Singapore’s mail and logistics business which generates stable cash flows, SingPost also has a property portfolio that may bring in substantial cash when unlocked. The group has about 61 post offices and around half are owned by SingPost; about 14 of these are restricted in usage, leaving 16 or so potentially saleable. However, the jewel in its portfolio is the Singapore Post Centre (SPC) which is conveniently located near Paya Lebar MRT. We estimate that the SPC is worth S$765m based on its current mix of industrial, office and retail use, but the value may increase to about S$1.56b if the building is converted to full commercial use.
May be an opportune time, but no rush for group
The buoyant mood in Singapore’s property sector means that this could be an opportune time for SingPost to spin off some of its assets. The group may even receive an offer that is hard to resist. However, putting market sentiment aside, the group may not be in a rush to unlock value as it is currently cash-rich after issuing perpetual capital securities. The divestment of property would also result in a loss of rental income.
Spin-off a bonus; buy for its defensiveness
On a more fundamental level, we like the group for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Its consistent dividends (yield ~5.9%), strong balance sheet and dominant market position in its home country render it an attractive stock during an uncertain climate. Maintain BUY with our DDM-derived fair value estimate of S$1.14.
SingPost – OCBC
PROPERTY SPIN-OFF A BONUS; BUY FOR DEFENSIVENESS
- Recent listings highlight buoyant mood
- May be an opportune time
- But group is cash rich
Property spinoffs gathering pace, though mainly hospitality
With current high property prices in Singapore, an increasing number of companies have listed their property assets due to favourable valuations, though these have been mostly limited to hospitality assets so far this year.
SingPost is rich
Besides having a dominant presence in Singapore’s mail and logistics business which generates stable cash flows, SingPost also has a property portfolio that may bring in substantial cash when unlocked. The group has about 61 post offices and around half are owned by SingPost; about 14 of these are restricted in usage, leaving 16 or so potentially saleable. However, the jewel in its portfolio is the Singapore Post Centre (SPC) which is conveniently located near Paya Lebar MRT. We estimate that the SPC is worth S$765m based on its current mix of industrial, office and retail use, but the value may increase to about S$1.56b if the building is converted to full commercial use.
May be an opportune time, but no rush for group
The buoyant mood in Singapore’s property sector means that this could be an opportune time for SingPost to spin off some of its assets. The group may even receive an offer that is hard to resist. However, putting market sentiment aside, the group may not be in a rush to unlock value as it is currently cash-rich after issuing perpetual capital securities. The divestment of property would also result in a loss of rental income.
Spin-off a bonus; buy for its defensiveness
On a more fundamental level, we like the group for its stable operating cash flows given its non-cyclical business. Its consistent dividends (yield ~5.9%), strong balance sheet and dominant market position in its home country render it an attractive stock during an uncertain climate. Maintain BUY with our DDM-derived fair value estimate of S$1.14.
STEng – DBSV
Healthy earnings momentum
• 2Q12 net profit of S$143m (up 10% y-o-y) slightly ahead of our estimates; margin improvements across all segments
• Orderbook at record level of S$12.7bn underpins earnings visibility, going forward
• Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$3.60
Highlights
Another strong quarter. 2Q12 net profit of S$143m was slightly above our expectations of S$138m, even after adjusting for S$12.8m gains on the sale of investment property, which was largely offset by S$10m allowance for doubtful debts. Revenue was up 10% y-o-y and 7% q-o-q to S$1.57bn, driven largely by the Land Systems and Marine sectors. 1H12’s net profit of S$277.5m makes up 50% of our existing full-year estimates for FY12, which is ahead of usual seasonality.
Margin improvement across all sectors. Overall PBT margin improved sequentially to 12% in 2Q12 from 10.5% in 1Q12. Aerospace core PBT margin was strong at 15%, compared to 13% in 1Q12 and 13.5% in 2Q11, owing to a favourable sales mix (higher heavy maintenance sales). Shipbuilding margins in the Marine segment also improved, despite an unfavourable fair value change of embedded forex derivatives in the S$880m Oman navy contract, which is denominated in Euros.
Our View
Record orderbook provides healthy earnings visibility. STE won close to an estimated S$2bn worth of new orders in 2Q12, as its orderbook expanded to record level of S$12.7bn at end-2Q12 from S$12.2bn at end-1Q12. About S$2.5bn of its orderbook will be recognised in 2H12.
Recommendation
Maintain BUY. Despite some acquisitions-related hiccups in the recent past, STE’s growth trajectory seems to be on track, driven by healthy order-win momentum and improvement in margins. We revise upwards our FY12/13F earnings estimates marginally by about 1-1.2% to account for the above. Operating cash flows in 1H12 remained strong, driven by higher customer deposits, in line with healthy order wins. Interim dividend of 3Scts was declared, at par with 1H11 levels. Given visible earnings growth, strong balance sheet and healthy dividend yield of 5%, we maintain our BUY call. Our TP, which is based on the blended valuation methodology, is revised upwards to S$3.60 as our PE multiple is revised upwards to 18x to reflect mid-cycle valuations.