Author: kktan

 

SPH – BT

SPH posts Q2 net profit of $84m

Operating revenue rose 3.7% to $298m; recurring earnings rose 14.2% over the year to $90m

SINGAPORE Press Holdings (SPH) yesterday reported an 11.6 per cent rise in net profit for the second quarter, lifted by higher rental income from its operations of two shopping malls and a slight boost in print advertising revenue.

SPH said net profit for the three months ended Feb 29, 2012, stood at $84.1 million, up from $75.4 million the same period a year ago.

But this translated to earnings per share (EPS) of five cents for the quarter, representing flat growth in EPS compared with the year-ago period.

Operating revenue for the publishing giant rose 3.7 per cent to $298 million. Recurring earnings for Q2 rose 14.2 per cent over the year to $90.1 million.

The group's recurring earnings for its media and property businesses refer to profit before investment income and share of net loss or profit of associates and jointly controlled entities.

Rental income for the group rose 21.6 per cent to $48 million for the period. Clementi Mall recorded rental income of $9.2 million, which is $7.8 million higher than the same period a year ago, during which the mall was not fully operational.

Revenue from Paragon was up by 1.7 per cent, or $700,000, thanks to higher rental rates.

Turnover from SPH's newspaper and magazine business registered flat growth at $235 million, dragged down by a fall in circulation revenue.

Print advertisement revenue nudged higher by 0.8 per cent to $178 million, though circulation revenue was down 1.1 per cent at $49.7 million. Operating revenue from the group's other businesses also rose 12.9 per cent in Q2 to $15.9 million over the year, due mainly to growth in the Internet business.

Net income from investments for the quarter plunged 57.4 per cent to $4.37 million, given a reversal of provision for a loss on derivatives last year.

Share of net profit of associates and jointly controlled entities stood at $2.41 million, swinging from a net loss of $216,000 a year ago. These would include profits from MediaCorp Press, MediaCorp TV Holdings, and OpenNet, and net losses from its other media investments, SPH said.

Staff costs – SPH's biggest cost component – dipped 0.3 per cent to $90 million, due to lower variable bonus provision that was partially offset by salary increments.

For the half-year period, net profit was up 2.2 per cent at $182 million, with operating revenue for the six months rising 4 per cent to $631 million.

SPH will pay out an interim dividend of seven cents per share. Shares of SPH closed unchanged at $3.89 yesterday.

TELCOs – CIMB

What to expect for 1Q12

We do not expect surprises in the 1Q12 results season. The usual themes are: 1) service revenue to remain muted;2) EBITDA margins to remain flat or up slightly; and 3) data to continue replacing voice.

We remain Neutral on Singapore telcos, maintaining our earnings forecasts and target prices. StarHub remains an Outperform and is our top Singapore/regional telco pick as we expect higher dividend payouts from its under-leveraged balance sheet.

Themes for 1Q12

We generally expect: 1) service revenue to remain muted as more Singaporeans travel out of the country during festive holidays, part of the seasonality; 2) EBITDA margins to improve on the back of lower advertising and marketing expenses and lower smartphone subsidies; and 3) data revenues to continue replacing voice revenues as a result of higher smartphone penetration rates.

Expectation for StarHub

We estimate earnings growth of 5-9% qoq for StarHub on margin improvements as lower subsidies added to lower advertising and marketing expenses during the quarter. Mobile revenues are also expected to rise on higher data take-up from higher smartphone penetration rates. We expect pay-TV revenue to remain stable qoq but increase yoy as StarHub raised its pricing by 4% in Aug 11.

Expectations for M1

We expect core profit to come in at S$37m-40m for 1Q12, with earnings contracting 1% or growing as much as 7% qoq. Revenue is expected to weaken on the back of lower handset sales (iPhone4S was launched in Oct 11) and lower service revenue. Meanwhile, we expect margins to improve from lower advertising and marketing spending and lower iPhone subsidies. M1 is scheduled to release its 1Q12 results on 6 Apr.

We will be previewing SingTel’s results separately.

TELCOs – CIMB

What to expect for 1Q12

We do not expect surprises in the 1Q12 results season. The usual themes are: 1) service revenue to remain muted;2) EBITDA margins to remain flat or up slightly; and 3) data to continue replacing voice.

We remain Neutral on Singapore telcos, maintaining our earnings forecasts and target prices. StarHub remains an Outperform and is our top Singapore/regional telco pick as we expect higher dividend payouts from its under-leveraged balance sheet.

Themes for 1Q12

We generally expect: 1) service revenue to remain muted as more Singaporeans travel out of the country during festive holidays, part of the seasonality; 2) EBITDA margins to improve on the back of lower advertising and marketing expenses and lower smartphone subsidies; and 3) data revenues to continue replacing voice revenues as a result of higher smartphone penetration rates.

Expectation for StarHub

We estimate earnings growth of 5-9% qoq for StarHub on margin improvements as lower subsidies added to lower advertising and marketing expenses during the quarter. Mobile revenues are also expected to rise on higher data take-up from higher smartphone penetration rates. We expect pay-TV revenue to remain stable qoq but increase yoy as StarHub raised its pricing by 4% in Aug 11.

Expectations for M1

We expect core profit to come in at S$37m-40m for 1Q12, with earnings contracting 1% or growing as much as 7% qoq. Revenue is expected to weaken on the back of lower handset sales (iPhone4S was launched in Oct 11) and lower service revenue. Meanwhile, we expect margins to improve from lower advertising and marketing spending and lower iPhone subsidies. M1 is scheduled to release its 1Q12 results on 6 Apr.

We will be previewing SingTel’s results separately.

STEng – DBSV

Big boost to orderbook

S$880m defence-related contract from new overseas Navy customer should renew faith in STE’s capabilities, reputation and demonstrate its resilient business model

Recovery in the US economy will further benefit STE; US$ weakness is unlikely to be a concern in FY12

Dividend yield remains healthy at 5.3%, upgrade to BUY with revised TP of S$3.40

Biggest contract win for Marine in recent years. ST Engineering’s shipbuilding and shiprepair arm ST Marine has won a EUR534.8m (S$880m) contract to design and build 4 patrol vessels (PVs) and provide associated logistic support for the Royal Navy of Oman. ST Marine will build four 75-metre PVs based on its proprietary Fearless Class of PVs. The project will commence immediately, with deliveries expected between 2Q 2015 and 3Q 2016.

Further strengthen track record in securing overseas customers for its defence sales, as the Sultanate of Oman is a new customer for STE. This is ST Marine’s second significant contract win for the year, following an order for 2 AHTS vessels from Swire Pacific Offshore in February, and brings total order wins YTD in 2012 to S$1.3bn. With S$3.2bn worth of new contracts secured in FY11, outstanding orderbook could reach a record level exceeding US$12.5bn, providing healthy earnings visibility in FY12/13F.

Upgrade to BUY. This contract win should help refocus investors’ attention on the resilient nature of STE’s business and away from the media hype about proceedings against ST Kinetics in India, which is immaterial to earnings and at worst, an opportunity loss. We revise up our FY12/13 earnings estimates by 1-2%. With the recent acquisition of NeraTel, STE’s growth trajectory looks set to be on track, especially as concerns over US$ fades and the US economy – to which STE has significant exposure – is showing signs of recovery. As such, we upgrade the stock to BUY with a revised TP of S$3.40, given the better earnings outlook, strong balance sheet and healthy dividend yield of over 5%.

SingTel – BT

De lights go out on SingTel’s e-mag store

SingTel’s magazine app store de!ite has become the telco’s first casualty among its digital offerings, shutting down less than two years after it was launched, BT has learnt. In response to BT’s queries, SingTel confirmed yesterday that the e-magazine store will be shuttered in June.

‘Following a review, de!ite will no longer be available from June 2012 while we explore alternative ways to offer digital magazines,’ a SingTel spokesman told BT.

The rolling up of the carpet had been in the works since earlier this year, when the magazine trade heard that de!ite would no longer be accepting new titles. Last week, another nail was driven into the coffin. One of the title owners received a termination letter for its e-magazine contract, which BT saw. The termination was to be effective 60 days from the date of the letter, which would coincide with the start of June.

As of yesterday, the de!ite app could still be downloaded on the iPad, with 42 titles available.

Launched in late-2010, de!ite had led SingTel’s charge into the app space as it sought to establish its cable-and-wire self in the ether of the digital realm. After de!ite was launched, other exclamation mark-bedecked and irregularly capitalised apps followed, like deF!ND and skoob – the book version of de!ite.

One of the publishers that used de!ite had found the experience wanting.

‘Some of their features, like the embedding of videos, didn’t work well. In an iPad magazine, even with a page-turner model, video ads should play within the magazine environment. However, when you embedded a video with de!ite, the reader would be taken out of the app and into a browser to play the video. That’s not embedding, as I understand it. And it’s disruptive,’ the publisher said.

The publisher noted, however, the de!ite had the best rates in town, in a time when its only competitor here was US-based Zinio.

While any costs incurred are bound to be but a smudge in the black ink of SingTel’s reserves, de!ite’s demise could have been a lesson in the brutal economics of online publishing.

A SingTel de!ite term sheet that BT saw gave the magazine title provider a 60 per cent cut of sales. de!ite also appears to use Apple’s in-app purchase mechanism for its app on Apple devices, which means that Apple could have taken another 30 per cent off copy sales, leaving a sliver of a margin for de!ite.

This 30 per cent levy has been a thorn in the side of other media behemoths – the Wall Street Journal and Amazon removed their in-app purchasing ability last year, while the Financial Times found a way around it by using an HTML5-based Web-only application, instead of a dedicated app.

Not all of the magazine trade is bad business. No one is sitting prettier in the e-magazine supply chain than Apple’s Newsstand, the wood-grained app on Apple devices that pulls together newspaper and magazine titles. According to a report by market research firm Distimo last month, Newsstand takes in US$70,000 a day on average from its top 100 titles on the iPad in the United States.

Its success is a partial reason for other e-magazine distributors’ failure. Newsstand creams 30 per cent off the top of magazine sales, before anyone else gets within sniffing distance.

This could sound the deathknell for smaller distributors that want to run Newsstand-based apps. BT’s sources say that an arm of a large publishing entity in Singapore has a magazine app that will run on Newsstand in the pipeline, but title owners are not giving it very good odds. This new service is offering title owners a 50-50 split of the remaining 70 per cent of sales that Newsstand lets it keep.

Effectively, title owners get only 35 per cent of the cover price if they go down this route – much less than the almost-60 per cent they get from hard copy sales and the 60 per cent that de!ite offered.

de!ite’s demise heralds a time when SingTel will have to face down corporations with which it previously had no quarrel, like Apple. Just last month, SingTel made its digital business a division in its own right, alongside its mobile business – a clear sign that it is quite prepared to return fire.