Author: kktan
MIIF – AmFraser
9.5% yield. What’s not to like?
No news in the financial results: As mentioned before, the most important quarter for MIIF is 3Q when the bulk of its income flows in from the assets. FY2011 revenues are up 33% to $59.2m, and the adjusted net profit is up 47.4% to $47.9m, both exactly in line.
Real meat is in operational performance at the asset level: Revenue and EBITDA numbers were within 4% of our estimates in general, but the volume and subscriber numbers showed a little more character. For Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP), the logs segment grew by 52% in one year, topping our estimate by 40%.
We were too pessimistic on traffic volumes for Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) due to the detolling of the competing Xinguang Expressway, with actual traffic coming in 2-6% higher than our estimate across all segments. However, management has flagged the risk of a 20% downward revision in the tariffs for Phase I of the expressway, which for conservativeness we have incorporated into 2012F-2026F projections.
Taiwan Broadband Communications’ (TBC) Digital TV segment delivered a terrific 63% growth to 90,632 subscribers, in line with our 90,000 estimate. The Cable TV and Broadband segments also showed in-line growth of 1.4% and 7.5% respectively (See Page 2 for the detailed treatment).
Another 2.75c dividend: We continue to expect MIIF to pay 2.75c every half-year, for a full-year yield of 9.5%. This exceeds the current EPS of 3.8c, but is backed by 9c per share in net cash. EPS is growing at a rapid clip, and should exceed 5.5c by 2014, at which point we forecast dividend growth. We maintain that this 5.5c dividend is sustainable.
Annual revaluation summary: MIIF revalued CXP up by $11.5m, reflecting strong growth in current and forecast volumes across most of its cargo types. HNE’s value was lowered by $17.6m, reflecting the adverse effect of the detolling of Xinguang Expressway and the possible tariff reduction. TBC’s value was raised $40.5m, mostly the revaluation of the newly-acquired 20% stake.
Share buybacks to resume: MIIF suspended its share buybacks prior to releasing the results. We expect buybacks to continue today, supporting the share price.
What’s not to like? Maintain BUY, raise FV to $0.690: Overall, MIIF’s assets have delivered stronger growth than expected. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged – DCF of the individual asset dividends to MIIF, less fund-level expenses, at (rather high) discount rates of 14%-19%. Updating our model with the latest volume numbers, our valuation rises to $0.690. MIIF offers both high sustainable dividends with some capital gains potential. BUY.
MIIF – AmFraser
9.5% yield. What’s not to like?
No news in the financial results: As mentioned before, the most important quarter for MIIF is 3Q when the bulk of its income flows in from the assets. FY2011 revenues are up 33% to $59.2m, and the adjusted net profit is up 47.4% to $47.9m, both exactly in line.
Real meat is in operational performance at the asset level: Revenue and EBITDA numbers were within 4% of our estimates in general, but the volume and subscriber numbers showed a little more character. For Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP), the logs segment grew by 52% in one year, topping our estimate by 40%.
We were too pessimistic on traffic volumes for Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) due to the detolling of the competing Xinguang Expressway, with actual traffic coming in 2-6% higher than our estimate across all segments. However, management has flagged the risk of a 20% downward revision in the tariffs for Phase I of the expressway, which for conservativeness we have incorporated into 2012F-2026F projections.
Taiwan Broadband Communications’ (TBC) Digital TV segment delivered a terrific 63% growth to 90,632 subscribers, in line with our 90,000 estimate. The Cable TV and Broadband segments also showed in-line growth of 1.4% and 7.5% respectively (See Page 2 for the detailed treatment).
Another 2.75c dividend: We continue to expect MIIF to pay 2.75c every half-year, for a full-year yield of 9.5%. This exceeds the current EPS of 3.8c, but is backed by 9c per share in net cash. EPS is growing at a rapid clip, and should exceed 5.5c by 2014, at which point we forecast dividend growth. We maintain that this 5.5c dividend is sustainable.
Annual revaluation summary: MIIF revalued CXP up by $11.5m, reflecting strong growth in current and forecast volumes across most of its cargo types. HNE’s value was lowered by $17.6m, reflecting the adverse effect of the detolling of Xinguang Expressway and the possible tariff reduction. TBC’s value was raised $40.5m, mostly the revaluation of the newly-acquired 20% stake.
Share buybacks to resume: MIIF suspended its share buybacks prior to releasing the results. We expect buybacks to continue today, supporting the share price.
What’s not to like? Maintain BUY, raise FV to $0.690: Overall, MIIF’s assets have delivered stronger growth than expected. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged – DCF of the individual asset dividends to MIIF, less fund-level expenses, at (rather high) discount rates of 14%-19%. Updating our model with the latest volume numbers, our valuation rises to $0.690. MIIF offers both high sustainable dividends with some capital gains potential. BUY.
RafflesMed – OCBC
EXPANDING FOR THE FUTURE
•Results showcase defensive earnings
•Final dividend of 3 S cents declared
•Forecasting margin expansion in FY12
4Q11 results within expectations.
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) reported its 4Q11 results which were within our expectations. Revenue rose 13.9% YoY and 4.6% QoQ to S$72.3m. Net profit increased 10.3% YoY and 39.9% QoQ to S$16.5m. For FY11, revenue of S$272.8m represented a 14.1% increase, and just 0.5% shy of our forecast. Reported PATMI rose 11.3% to S$50.4m. Excluding fair value gains on investment properties of S$2.2m, we estimate that core PATMI rose 14.1% to S$48.2m, forming 99.2% of our earnings projection. A final dividend of 3 S cents was declared, bringing full-year dividends to 4 S cents. This translates into a yield of 1.6% and was higher than FY10’s declared dividends of 3.5 S cents.
Benefiting from robust demand for quality healthcare services
We understand that RMG’s increment in revenue was driven largely by ASP increases, while volume growth contributed to a smaller extent. This improved performance was attributed to growth from its core Hospital Services and Healthcare Services divisions, which saw a double-digit jump in revenue of 14.6% and 10.9%, respectively. The former was driven by higher patient loads and a wider range of medical specialties on offer. Moving forward, we see margin expansion arising from further ASP increases, narrowing losses at its Shanghai medical centre and higher revenue intensity per patient.
Expansion taking place steadily
Management updated us that the 15,000 sf of new medical space to be created at its existing Raffles Hospital would be ready for use in Apr 2012. This would allow the group to accommodate an additional 15-20 new specialists. Commencement of operations at its new Specialist Medical Centre in the Orchard Road area is also expected to take place in 1H13, while we believe that its hospital expansion would be ready in 2014. We finetune our assumptions and introduce our FY13 estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$2.66 (previously S$2.61), still based on 24x FY12F EPS.
RafflesMed – OCBC
EXPANDING FOR THE FUTURE
•Results showcase defensive earnings
•Final dividend of 3 S cents declared
•Forecasting margin expansion in FY12
4Q11 results within expectations.
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) reported its 4Q11 results which were within our expectations. Revenue rose 13.9% YoY and 4.6% QoQ to S$72.3m. Net profit increased 10.3% YoY and 39.9% QoQ to S$16.5m. For FY11, revenue of S$272.8m represented a 14.1% increase, and just 0.5% shy of our forecast. Reported PATMI rose 11.3% to S$50.4m. Excluding fair value gains on investment properties of S$2.2m, we estimate that core PATMI rose 14.1% to S$48.2m, forming 99.2% of our earnings projection. A final dividend of 3 S cents was declared, bringing full-year dividends to 4 S cents. This translates into a yield of 1.6% and was higher than FY10’s declared dividends of 3.5 S cents.
Benefiting from robust demand for quality healthcare services
We understand that RMG’s increment in revenue was driven largely by ASP increases, while volume growth contributed to a smaller extent. This improved performance was attributed to growth from its core Hospital Services and Healthcare Services divisions, which saw a double-digit jump in revenue of 14.6% and 10.9%, respectively. The former was driven by higher patient loads and a wider range of medical specialties on offer. Moving forward, we see margin expansion arising from further ASP increases, narrowing losses at its Shanghai medical centre and higher revenue intensity per patient.
Expansion taking place steadily
Management updated us that the 15,000 sf of new medical space to be created at its existing Raffles Hospital would be ready for use in Apr 2012. This would allow the group to accommodate an additional 15-20 new specialists. Commencement of operations at its new Specialist Medical Centre in the Orchard Road area is also expected to take place in 1H13, while we believe that its hospital expansion would be ready in 2014. We finetune our assumptions and introduce our FY13 estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$2.66 (previously S$2.61), still based on 24x FY12F EPS.
SingTel – DMG
Optus Goes Vivid
THE BUZZ
Singtel announced yesterday that its wholly- owned subsidiary, Optus Mobile Pty Ltd has signed an agreement to acquire all the issued shares in Vividwireless Group (VW) Ltd from Network Investments Holdings Pty. Ltd for a cash consideration of AUD230m. Vividwireless holds spectrum licenses in the 2.3GHz band and operates two wireless broadband businesses under the brandnames of ‘vividwireless’ and ‘unwired’. The completion of the transaction is subject to various conditions precedent including the reissue of the 2.3GHz spectrum licenses and approvals of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and Foreign Investment Review Board.
OUR TAKE
Zeroing in on the spectrum. We view the acquisition positively for Optus given the access to 98MHz under the 2.3Ghz band, a prized asset that will complement the 1800MHz band being used for its upcoming 4G (LTE) mobile rollout. Optus stands to gain immediately from an existing fixed wireless brand in the market and a ready base of customers to migrate, allowing for the up-selling and cross selling of bundled mobile and broadband packages. This should result in longer term ARPU accretion and stickiness. We believe Optus will be add value to VW than it would be possible under Seven Network as it is already supplying backhaul infrastructure to VW. The acquisition is well timed ahead of the move into next generation networks (NGN) where competition in the market is expected to intensify. There is strong potential for mobile and wireless broadband in Australia given the estimated broadband penetration of 49% in the country. Also, the vast terrain makes wireless broadband more a more cost effective solution to reach out to certain sections of the market which are not covered by fixed access.