Author: kktan

 

SingPost – DBSV

Dividend play; upside from buybacks & growth

Generates S$50m cash annually after paying dividends; deployed in six M&A transactions YTD

Singpost still needs to deploy idle cash, so share buybacks are likely to continue

Upgrade to BUY with unchanged TP of S$1.17. We see a favorable +23% reward versus –4% risk

Singpost is a cash machine; deployment of cash is key. Free cash flow usually exceeds earnings, as regular capex of S$10-15m is less than depreciation expenses of S$20-25m. Singpost pays 6.25 Scts DPS each year, which translates to S$120m in dividends versus free cash flow of ~S$170m.

Six M&A transactions done in the last six months. SingPost has used S$65m to acquire stakes in six regional companies in the logistics, e-commerce and e-substitution sectors. Contribution from these acquisitions is estimated to be minimal in FY12F as Singpost invests in people and resources to manage these businesses. However from next year onwards, these investments will start to pay off.

Share buybacks may continue to deploy idle cash. Singpost pays fixed rate of 3.5% on its 10- year bonds while it stands to gain over 6% yield by buying back its own shares. Treasury shares can also be used later for regional expansion.

Trading at 13% discount to its average 1-year forward PE of 13.8x. Singpost has been resilient to market volatility, falling 10% vs. 20% decline in broader STI over the last two months. We upgrade stock to BUY at our TP of S$1.17 based on DDM (cost of equity 7.7%, growth rate 2%) for its >6% yield and steady earnings growth through acquisitions. We assume that dividends can grow by 2% p.a. in the long term.

SingPost – DBSV

Dividend play; upside from buybacks & growth

Generates S$50m cash annually after paying dividends; deployed in six M&A transactions YTD

Singpost still needs to deploy idle cash, so share buybacks are likely to continue

Upgrade to BUY with unchanged TP of S$1.17. We see a favorable +23% reward versus –4% risk

Singpost is a cash machine; deployment of cash is key. Free cash flow usually exceeds earnings, as regular capex of S$10-15m is less than depreciation expenses of S$20-25m. Singpost pays 6.25 Scts DPS each year, which translates to S$120m in dividends versus free cash flow of ~S$170m.

Six M&A transactions done in the last six months. SingPost has used S$65m to acquire stakes in six regional companies in the logistics, e-commerce and e-substitution sectors. Contribution from these acquisitions is estimated to be minimal in FY12F as Singpost invests in people and resources to manage these businesses. However from next year onwards, these investments will start to pay off.

Share buybacks may continue to deploy idle cash. Singpost pays fixed rate of 3.5% on its 10- year bonds while it stands to gain over 6% yield by buying back its own shares. Treasury shares can also be used later for regional expansion.

Trading at 13% discount to its average 1-year forward PE of 13.8x. Singpost has been resilient to market volatility, falling 10% vs. 20% decline in broader STI over the last two months. We upgrade stock to BUY at our TP of S$1.17 based on DDM (cost of equity 7.7%, growth rate 2%) for its >6% yield and steady earnings growth through acquisitions. We assume that dividends can grow by 2% p.a. in the long term.

STEng – BT

ST Engg unit wins $125m DSTA contract

ST Engineering’s wholly owned integrated services arm ST Synthesis has secured a five-year contract worth about $125 million from Singapore’s Defence Science & Technology Agency (DSTA).

The contract, which begins this month, will see ST Synthesis provide facilities maintenance services to the Singapore Ministry of Defence (Mindef) controlled properties and facilities.

‘Security sensitivity, integrated, end-to-end operation and essential support capabilities offered on a 24/7 basis are of paramount importance in managing essential and intensive infrastructure of controlled properties and facilities,’ said Goh Lik Kok, general manager of ST Synthesis.

ST Synthesis, whose expertise includes preventive equipment maintenance and critical asset preservation, will provide maintenance services on the buildings’ infrastructure, mechanical and electrical equipment and systems for various properties including camps and military installations.

The mechanical and electrical equipment includes power generators, transformers and switchgears, electrical distribution systems, mechanical ventilation and airconditioning systems, lightning protection systems, earthing systems and fire alarms, and detection and protection systems as well as security surveillance and access control systems.

‘ST Synthesis is proud that we are able to leverage our expertise to provide comprehensive maintenance services to Mindef,’ said Mr Goh.

ST Synthesis has substantial experience in handling key installations and managing security sensitive complexes, infrastructures and facilities in Singapore.

Its maintenance contracts include the $6.5 million management and maintenance of essential equipment for Tuas Marine Transfer Station and Semakau Landfill, awarded by the National Environment Agency in January 2010.

The company was also awarded in July 2009 the $26.5 million Land Transport Authority contract for the comprehensive maintenance of Kallang Paya Lebar Expressway.

September 2011

 

STI = 2675.16 (-32.97)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SPH

FY10 (Aug)

31

27

$3.76

7.181%

12.13

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 11ct (Special)

SingPost

FY11 (Mar)

8.369

6.25

$1.03

6.098%

12.25

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

STI ETF

Jun-11

4.5

$2.72

3.309%

Jun11 4.5ct ; Dec10 3.5ct

SATS

FY11 (Mar)

17.4

17

$2.20

7.727%

12.64

Final 6ct + Special 6ct ; Interim 5ct

ST Engg

FY10 (Dec)

16.21

14.55

$2.81

5.178%

17.33

Final 4ct + 7.55ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY10 (Dec)

17.63

8.80

$1.70

5.176%

9.64

Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct

ComfortDelGro

FY10 (Dec)

10.95

5.50

$1.31

4.198%

11.96

Interim 2.7ct ; Final 2.8ct

SMRT

FY11 (Mar)

10.6

8.5

$1.75

4.871%

16.46

Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY11 (Mar)

24.02

25.8

$3.18

8.491%

13.24

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct + Special 10ct

M1

FY10 (Dec)

17.5

17.5

$2.46

7.114%

14.06

Interim 6.3ct ; Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct

StarHub

FY10 (Dec)

15.34

20

$2.86

6.993%

18.64

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

2H11 (Mar-11)

A4.0 (Gross)

$1.150

8.792%

A$0.89

2H11 A4.0ct ; 1H11 A4.0ct

MIIF

1H – Jun11

2.75

$0.485

11.340%

$0.81

1H11 2.75ct ; 2H10 1.5ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2639) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 30-Sep-11
  • ComfortDelgro : Q211 (Jun) – 2.7ct
  • SBSTransit : Q211 (Jun) – 3.1ct
  • MIIF : 1H11 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H10 (Dec) – 1.5ct
  • StarHub : Q211 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q111 (Mar) – 5ct
  • ST Engg : 1H11 (Jun) – 3ct
  • SingPost : Q112 (Jun11) – 1.25ct
  • M1 : 1H11 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
  • SATSvcs : Q411 (Mar11) – Final 6ct + Special 6ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 5ct
  • SPAus : 2H11 (Mar11) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7721ct (after tax) ; 1H11 (Sep10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7772ct (after tax)
  • SingTel : 2H11 (Mar11) – Final 9ct + Special 10ct ; 1H11 (Sep10) – Interim 6.8ct
  • SMRT : Q411 (Mar) – Final 6.75ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 1.75ct
  • SPH : 1H11 (Feb) – 7ct
  • StarHub : FY11 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q

 

 

STEng – OCBC

Right on track

Small but meaningful acquisition. Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd (STE) announced on 20 Sep 2011 that its American subsidiary Vision Technologies Aerospace Inc. agreed to wholly acquire DRB Aviation Consultants, Inc. (DRB Aviation) for US$1.45m (~S$1.75m). Apart from strengthening STE’s cabin interior engineering capability, DRB Aviation is a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA – the American aviation authority) designee in issuing minor Supplementary Type Certificates (STCs) for avionics and interiors projects. While it is possible for STE to develop this FAA designation in-house, management reckons this acquisition is both faster and more cost effective. Alterations to an aircraft’s certified layout require an approved STC and STE used to outsource STC certification of its aviation cabin engineering projects. With this acquisition,

the STC certification process could be done within the STE Group.

S$68m contract win from MINDEF. STE announced on 13 Sep 2011 that its subsidiary ST Kinetics won a S$68m contract from the Singapore Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) to supply its new generation of Spider Light Strike Vehicles (Spider LSV). Delivery is expected to take place over 2013-14. While the contract value is small relative to the size of a conglomerate like STE, this contract win illustrates STE’s ability to continue developing new products.

CPIB investigations. STE announced on 12 Sep 2011, that Patrick Lee, the CFO of the holding company of the group’s American business interests, Vision Technologies Systems, Inc. (VT Systems), was arrested by Singapore’s Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB). Lee was not charged in court, subsequently released on bail and granted permission by the CPIB to leave Singapore. STE believes this is in relation to certain transactions that happened when Lee was the financial controller at ST Marine. Since then, Lee has taken a leave of absence while the CPIB’s investigations and STE’s internal inquiry continue. STE Group’s financial controller Raphael Chin has been appointed as acting CFO of VT Systems. Management believes this arrangement will not have any material impact on the operations of the STE Group.

Maintain BUY. Since our last report on 9 Sep 2011, the FTSE Straits Times Index has fallen 5.5% to 2,701 points. During the same time, STE displayed its defensive nature as its share price only fell slightly by 0.3%.. Given STE’s strong order book of S$10.8b, its 90% dividend payout ratio and that recent news developments do not have a material impact on STE’s resilient earnings, we retain our fair value estimate of S$3.37 per share. As the fair value still represents 14.6% upside to our fair value, we maintain our BUY call.