Author: kktan
September 2010
Results Announcement
- 12 Oct 10 : SPH (Q410)
STI = 3097.63 (-8.40)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY09 (Aug) |
26 |
25 |
$4.25 |
5.882% |
16.35 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 9ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY10 (Mar) |
8.563 |
6.25 |
$1.22 |
5.123% |
14.25 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Jun-10 |
— |
3 |
$3.14 |
1.911% |
— |
Jun10 3ct ; Dec09 3ct |
|
SATS |
FY10 (Mar) |
16.7 |
13 |
$2.85 |
4.561% |
17.07 |
Final 8ct ; Interim 5ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY09 (Dec) |
14.78 |
13.3 |
$3.36 |
3.952% |
22.73 |
Final 4ct + 6.28ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY09 (Dec) |
17.75 |
8.8 |
$1.86 |
4.731% |
10.48 |
Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY09 (Dec) |
10.52 |
5.3 |
$1.52 |
3.487% |
14.45 |
Interim 2.63ct ; Final 2.67ct |
|
SMRT |
FY10 (Mar) |
10.7 |
8.5 |
$2.05 |
4.146% |
19.16 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY10 (Mar) |
24.55 |
14.2 |
$3.14 |
4.522% |
12.79 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 8ct |
|
M1 |
FY09 (Dec) |
16.8 |
13.4 |
$2.19 |
6.119% |
13.04 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 7.2ct |
|
StarHub |
FY09 (Dec) |
18.68 |
19 |
$2.58 |
7.364% |
13.81 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H10 (Mar-10) |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.090 |
9.344% |
A$0.94 |
2H10 A4.0ct ; 1H10 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun10 |
1.50 |
$0.545 |
5.505% |
$0.830 |
2H09 1.5ct ; 1H09 1.5ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2731) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Sep-10
- SBSTransit : Q210 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q210 (Jun) – 2.7ct
- MIIF : 1H10 (Jun) – 1.5ct
- StarHub : Q210 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q110 (Mar) – 5ct
- ST Engg : Q210 (Jun) – 3ct
- SingPost : Q111 (Jun10) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 1H10 (Jun) – Interim 6.3ct
- SingTel : 2H10 (Mar10) – Final 8ct ; 1H10 (Sep09) – Interim 6.2ct
- SPAus : 2H10 (Mar10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7739ct (after tax) ; 1H10 (Sep09) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.8113ct (after tax)
- SATSvcs : Q410 (Mar10) – Final 8ct ; Q210 (Sep09) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q410 (Mar10) – Final 6.75ct ; Q210 (Sep09) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 1H10 (Feb) – 7ct
- StarHub : FY10 Div Policy 20ct ie. 5ct/Q
September 2010
Results Announcement
- 12 Oct 10 : SPH (Q410)
STI = 3097.63 (-8.40)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY09 (Aug) |
26 |
25 |
$4.25 |
5.882% |
16.35 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 9ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY10 (Mar) |
8.563 |
6.25 |
$1.22 |
5.123% |
14.25 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Jun-10 |
— |
3 |
$3.14 |
1.911% |
— |
Jun10 3ct ; Dec09 3ct |
|
SATS |
FY10 (Mar) |
16.7 |
13 |
$2.85 |
4.561% |
17.07 |
Final 8ct ; Interim 5ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY09 (Dec) |
14.78 |
13.3 |
$3.36 |
3.952% |
22.73 |
Final 4ct + 6.28ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY09 (Dec) |
17.75 |
8.8 |
$1.86 |
4.731% |
10.48 |
Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY09 (Dec) |
10.52 |
5.3 |
$1.52 |
3.487% |
14.45 |
Interim 2.63ct ; Final 2.67ct |
|
SMRT |
FY10 (Mar) |
10.7 |
8.5 |
$2.05 |
4.146% |
19.16 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY10 (Mar) |
24.55 |
14.2 |
$3.14 |
4.522% |
12.79 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 8ct |
|
M1 |
FY09 (Dec) |
16.8 |
13.4 |
$2.19 |
6.119% |
13.04 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 7.2ct |
|
StarHub |
FY09 (Dec) |
18.68 |
19 |
$2.58 |
7.364% |
13.81 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H10 (Mar-10) |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.090 |
9.344% |
A$0.94 |
2H10 A4.0ct ; 1H10 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun10 |
1.50 |
$0.545 |
5.505% |
$0.830 |
2H09 1.5ct ; 1H09 1.5ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2731) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Sep-10
- SBSTransit : Q210 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q210 (Jun) – 2.7ct
- MIIF : 1H10 (Jun) – 1.5ct
- StarHub : Q210 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q110 (Mar) – 5ct
- ST Engg : Q210 (Jun) – 3ct
- SingPost : Q111 (Jun10) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 1H10 (Jun) – Interim 6.3ct
- SingTel : 2H10 (Mar10) – Final 8ct ; 1H10 (Sep09) – Interim 6.2ct
- SPAus : 2H10 (Mar10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7739ct (after tax) ; 1H10 (Sep09) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.8113ct (after tax)
- SATSvcs : Q410 (Mar10) – Final 8ct ; Q210 (Sep09) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q410 (Mar10) – Final 6.75ct ; Q210 (Sep09) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 1H10 (Feb) – 7ct
- StarHub : FY10 Div Policy 20ct ie. 5ct/Q
SingTel – CIMB
Smartening the pipe
• Maintain UNDERPERFORM. SingTel showcased its ambitions to become the leader in cloud computing by hosting an i.Luminate Business Innovations Forum. We view this as SingTel’s attempt to reinvent itself from being a “dumb pipe” broadband provider to one that offers businesses value-added services, much like its ambition to be a multimedia company for residential users. Cloud computing should also help SingTel retain customers with the advent of NGNBN. Riding its existing infrastructure, SingTel can provide these services across the region. While we view its move positively, we estimate that contributions from cloud computing will not be significant in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, SingTel faces earnings pressure in Singapore, India and Australia. Hence, we maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating and SOP-based target price of S$3.09. We prefer M1 as we believe it will be the largest beneficiary of NGNBN, and offers capital-management potential.
• One-stop ICT solutions provider. SingTel wants to move up the value chain from a mere provider of managed and professional services to cloud computing i.e. SingTel has assembled solutions from many providers, offering software, platform and infrastructure services to which businesses can subscribe as and when they need them.
• SingTel’s counter-attack. We view the above as part of SingTel’s defence of its dominance in broadband services to small and medium enterprises. SingTel’s near monopoly in this market segment has been made vulnerable by NGNBN which will connect all buildings and commercial areas in Singapore with fibre optics.
STEng – Phillip
Contract wins till date
• Total value of announced contracts till date had surpassed that of entire FY2009. Contract value announced till date stands at S$2.27bn.
• ST Aerospace’s Maintenance-By-the-Hour (MBH™) contracts will benefit from increased utilization by its airline customers. Hence, the capacity additions by global airlines and freighters are reflective of increases to Aerospace revenue in 6 to 12months. Being the largest revenue and profit contributor to STE, a rebound for the global aerospace industry is positive for the group.
• We estimate that the MBH™ contracts won by ST Aerospace from Jet Airways, Spring Airlines & T’Way Air in 2010 will add approximately S$130mn to the yearly sales of its commercial aircraft business.
• Under the current low interest rate environment, we believe that STE offers healthy earnings yield at the current price. We expect a 12M-Fwd earnings yield of 5%, which is a 3% premium over 10yr Bond Yield on Singapore Government Securities of approximately 2% (above the 5yr average earnings yield premium of 2.48%). Hence, we maintain our BUY call with a revised target price of S$3.69 based on our FCFE-model (COE: 8.3%, Terminal G= 3.5%).
Thomson Medical – DMG
Valuations seem stretched
Downgrade to NEUTRAL. Thomson Medical’s share price soared 38% in the past 2 months, after having hovered around the S$0.69 – S$0.71 range since the start of 2010. It is currently trading at 19x FY10 P/E. Given that Thomson Medical is a niche O&G provider, and that growth is somewhat limited by capacity, we hold the opinion that it should trade at a discount to regional peers’ average (21x forward P/E). Based on 16x FY11 earnings, we arrive at a TP of S$0.94 (previously S$0.88). We are downgrading our recommendation to NEUTRAL.
Growth from hospital operations likely to be limited. We hold the view that Thomson Medical would be able to continue growing, supported by the improving economy and its ability to attract senior specialists from the public sector. As the economy picks up, people are more willing to turn to private healthcare. Thomson Medical is a leading private O&G provider with one of the lowest average bill size. The addition of new specialists would also contribute to growth in revenue and deliveries. However, currently running at almost full occupancy (~80%), there is only so much more that Thomson Medical can do (e.g. lowering average length of stay), in order to accommodate more patients and deliveries. Hence, we think that growth from hospital operations would be limited.
Growth to be driven by other specialised services. As a leader in women’s and children’s health, the other specialised services that Thomson Medical provides (~25% of revenue) (e.g. fertility, cancer and paediatric treatments) are also likely to continue growing. With an improving economy, patients may be more willing to spend at private hospitals. Its network of seven women’s clinics, as well as its Cancer Centre and Paediatric Centre, are expected to drive growth.
Earnings estimates raised. We have tweaked our revenue assumptions for FY10, taking into consideration higher utilisation of its facilities and services. Contribution from the new O&G specialists would boost FY11 revenue. Our margin assumptions are also adjusted, as higher utilization could help improve margins. Hence, our FY10 and FY11 earnings estimates are raised by 8% and 7%, to S$15.2m and S$17.1m respectively.