Author: kktan

 

SPH – Kim Eng

Set for bumper profits

Event

• Robust demand for display and job ads during 9M10, as well as sizeable property development profits, appears to have set the Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) on course to report a record net profit for FY Aug10 when it announces its fullyear results, likely on 12 October. Though sales growth in the fourth quarter moderated somewhat, as reflected in the sequential decline in its page count, we expect higher consumer spending and a strong job market to sustain print advertising demand. Maintain BUY with a target price of $4.62.

Our View

• Display ad volume growth moderated in 4QFY Aug10 as the average page count for the Saturday edition of The Straits Times rose by just 13% YoY compared to +28% in the previous quarter. Sequentially this marked a 4% drop. However, we expect the advertising volume to pick up again in 1QFY Aug11 as yearend festivities kick in.

• With the completion of Sky@Eleven in June, SPH is eyeing new projects. It recently put in the secondhighest bid of $650.9m for a mixed commercial and residential development site at Bedok. At $694

psf, the price seemed fair as it was close to the third and fourth bids.

• Another catalyst is the opening of the 60%owned Clementi Mall next January. Crowdpullers such as Fairprice Finest, Foodfare and the National Library Board have signed on as anchor tenants. We await an update on the retail tenancy mix and rental rates in the next 46 months.

Action & Recommendation

Our final dividend forecast of 18 cents a share remains intact, implying a fullyear total yield of 6.1% (DPS of 25.3 cents). The core media business currently trades at an implied FY Aug11F PER of 15x, a slight discount to the Straits Times Index. Other longterm catalysts are growth in consumer spending and possible spinoff of its property division. Maintain BUY with a target price of $4.62.

TELCOs – BT

Door swings open for fourth mobile operator

IDA to auction off final 3G spectrum in November despite opposition from incumbents

Local authorities will go ahead with plans to auction off Singapore’s final third-generation (3G) mobile spectrum this November despite opposition from incumbent operators.

In doing so, the government is also keeping the door open for a fourth player to break the country’s decade-long telecommunications trinity.

This 3G spectrum, which has been left unused for the last nine years, is set to go under the hammer on Nov 15.

Three lots within the 1,900 to 2,100 MHz (megahertz) frequency range will be up for grabs this time round and the reserve price for these have been set at $20 million each.

These additional details were disclosed by the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (IDA) in a set of auction documents published on its website last Friday.

The move is envisioned to provide existing operators – Singapore Telecommunications, StarHub, and M1 – with additional cellular bandwidth to cope with the explosive demand in mobile broadband services in recent years.

IDA statistics show that some 5.5 million wireless broadband users are now using smart phones and mobile broadband sticks to surf on the go, a trend which places a growing strain on a telco’s cellular network.

In addition, the IDA previously said the auction could also pave the way for a fourth mobile operator to join the scene.

All three incumbents protested the auction when the idea was first floated in March this year.

Instead, they collectively mooted a non-competitive, ‘administrative allocation’ approach where the remaining 3G spectrum is apportioned to them instead.

‘An auction will be a more efficient, objective, and transparent approach for allocating scarce resources because it relies on market forces to allocate them to those who value them most,’ the IDA said in its defence last Friday.

‘This takes into account the fact that radio-frequency spectrum is a scarce and finite resource and that a market-based allocation approach, such as an auction, is more effective in ensuring spectrum optimisation by operators,’ it added.

This was the same route it took in 2001 when the 3G spectrum first went on sale here.

Four lots were to be parcelled off then but the auction was scrapped as it only garnered three bids in the end.

SingTel, StarHub, and M1 eventually paid the reserve price of $100 million each for their 3G licences in 2001. The fourth unclaimed band is the one that IDA is now looking to allot.

Under IDA’s latest auction rules, the three incumbent operators can only bid for a maximum of two spectrum lots in the November auction.

Interested bidders must submit their initial offers by Oct 4 and they must be backed by bank guarantees, the regulator said.

Other companies outside Singapore’s telco fraternity are welcome to throw their hats into the ring but the spectrum will only be allotted to firms with an established local presence.

However, the IDA is giving interested foreign companies some leeway.

‘It is not necessary for such an entity to have been established in order for a bidder to participate in the auction,’ the regulator said.

This gives a new player a time buffer of at least two months between tabling their initial bids and setting up a local subsidiary.

However, market watchers believe the chances of having a fourth operator are slim as the incumbents have entrenched customer bases and they can be expected to defend their turfs aggressively.

Singapore did have a fourth operator once in 2002 in the form of Virgin Mobile, a joint venture between SingTel and Richard Branson’s Virgin Group.

However, it failed to make a dent in the market and the company pulled out within a year.

SingTel – BT

SingTel may get boost in Europe through Cable & Wireless

Singapore Telecom will be able to stake a major claim to European markets if it acquires Cable and Wireless Worldwide (C&WW), but the integration of these two giants could be challenging at first, analysts say.

On Sunday, British daily The Independent said SingTel is considering a bid for UK-based Cable & Wireless Worldwide (C&WW).

Singapore’s largest operator has reportedly contacted investment banks in the region, as well as London, to discuss the acquisition.

SingTel has refused to comment directly on the report, saying it does not respond to ‘market speculation’.

The company derives 73 per cent of its Ebitda – earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation – from overseas through Australian subsidiary Optus and its six regional mobile associates.

Market watchers have repeatedly highlighted the need for SingTel to continue spreading its wings abroad to fuel growth.

But SingTel has not made a single purchase in the three years since it bought a 30 per cent stake in Pakistani operator Warid in June 2007 – a unit that continues to struggle for profitability.

This could change, following the appointment of new international CEO Hui Weng Cheong last month.

The former chief operating officer of SingTel’s Thai associate AIS will officially take over from current chief Lim Chuan Poh when he retires at the end of this year.

C&WW is a major player in the UK telecoms market and remains dominant in several overseas markets including the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean.

‘SingTel does not really have a strong position in Europe, and if it does acquire C&WW, SingTel will be able to boost its credibility and capability in serving large multi-national customers in Europe and Asia,’ said telecoms consultant Soh Siow Meng.

‘However, I do think there will be a lot of issues initially when it comes to integrating SingTel’s enterprise and wholesale operations with C&WW before any synergy can be achieved.’

StarHub – Phillip

Launch of NGNBN

StarHub held a media conference on its plans and solutions for NGNBN

Raise our revenue and net profit estimates

Maintain Hold and raise fair value from S$2.16 to S$2.41

Media conference

StarHub held a media conference on 2 September 2010 to launch its plans and solutions for the Next Generation National Broadband Network (NGNBN). In particular, StarHub highlighted its home and business solutions for the fibre optic network. With NGNBN, it can reach out to all businesses and homes in Singapore. This would place it on an equal footing to compete with SingTel, which is the current leader in the broadband market. It also demonstrated to analysts on the use of its solutions for 3D gaming, cable television programs and video conferences.

Our views on StarHub’s plans

We are impressed by StarHub’s plans on NGNBN. It has also become the first telecommunications company to provide more details of its price plans for NGNBN, which are named as MaxInfinity. In fact, it has four access plans that are priced from S$68.27 to S$395.90. No details have been provided on the operating margins, but we believe that StarHub will benefit from the new plans.

Revised revenue and net profit estimates

We have raised StarHub’s broadband revenue estimates by 5.6%, 33.2% and 42.5% to S$281.5m, S$370.8m and S$414.1m in FY2010E, FY2011E and FY2012E respectively. This is because we expect StarHub to register a net gain of 60,000, 30,000 and 20,000 broadband subscribers in FY2010E, FY2011E and FY2012E respectively. Moreover, net profit is projected to increase by 5.1%, 32.3% and 41.9% to S$216.5m, S$267.1m and S$293.2m in FY2010E, FY2011E and FY2012E respectively.

SPH – CIMB

Steady ad demand

Maintain Outperform. Following our recent meeting with management, we remain confident about SPH’s prospects. We expect ad demand to improve further yoy from healthy retail and job markets. No change to our earnings estimates. Our sum-of-the parts target price remains S$4.47. Maintain Outperform as SPH’s future earnings should be bolstered by higher ad demand, in line with Singapore’s improving economy. We expect stock catalysts from lower-than-expected newsprint costs.

Expect pick-up in ad demand come 1Q11. The Saturday edition of The Straits Times averaged 228 pages in August, up 7% yoy but down 6% mom due to a quieter property market during the Hungry Ghost month. However, we believe there will be a pick-up in ad demand come 1Q11 (September-November) as the festive season approaches. YTD page count is up 19% yoy. In line with the economic recovery, newsprint prices have been climbing to US$600-650MT, though still much below peak prices. Newsprint prices have been locked in till Mar 11.

Reasons to like SPH. We continue to like SPH as we believe its print business is well-positioned to benefit from events planned for Asia over the next few years. Also, its dividend yields of 6-7% are comparable to average S-REIT yields and higher than the yields of other large caps.