Author: kktan
December 2014
STI = 3365.15 (+197.72 for the Year)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
Hong Leong Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.610 |
4.598% |
16.47 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SGX |
FY14 (Jun) |
30 |
28 |
$7.810 |
3.585% |
26.03 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct |
|
SingPost |
FY14 (Mar) |
6.746 |
6.25 |
$1.920 |
3.255% |
28.46 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY14 (Aug) |
25 |
21 |
$4.210 |
4.988% |
16.84 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct |
Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY14 (Mar) |
16.10 |
13.0 |
$3.050 |
4.262% |
18.94 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SIA Engineering |
FY14 (Mar) |
23.88 |
25.0 |
$4.220 |
5.924% |
17.67 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct |
|
ST Engineering |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.400 |
4.412% |
18.15 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.705 |
1.056% |
47.10 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$2.600 |
2.692% |
20.92 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY14 (Mar) |
4.10 |
2.20 |
$1.580 |
1.392% |
38.54 |
Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY14 (Mar) |
22.92 |
16.8 |
$3.900 |
4.308% |
17.02 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.610 |
5.817% |
20.75 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.150 |
4.819% |
19.30 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
AusNet Services |
1H – Sep14 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.420 |
6.371% |
A$0.86 |
1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.0821) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Dec-14
- SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
- AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
- SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
- StarHub : Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
- SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
- SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
- SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
- SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
- ST Engg : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
- HLFin : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- M1 : 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
- SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
- ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
December 2014
STI = 3365.15 (+197.72 for the Year)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
Hong Leong Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.610 |
4.598% |
16.47 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SGX |
FY14 (Jun) |
30 |
28 |
$7.810 |
3.585% |
26.03 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct |
|
SingPost |
FY14 (Mar) |
6.746 |
6.25 |
$1.920 |
3.255% |
28.46 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY14 (Aug) |
25 |
21 |
$4.210 |
4.988% |
16.84 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct |
Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY14 (Mar) |
16.10 |
13.0 |
$3.050 |
4.262% |
18.94 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SIA Engineering |
FY14 (Mar) |
23.88 |
25.0 |
$4.220 |
5.924% |
17.67 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct |
|
ST Engineering |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.400 |
4.412% |
18.15 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.705 |
1.056% |
47.10 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$2.600 |
2.692% |
20.92 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY14 (Mar) |
4.10 |
2.20 |
$1.580 |
1.392% |
38.54 |
Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY14 (Mar) |
22.92 |
16.8 |
$3.900 |
4.308% |
17.02 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.610 |
5.817% |
20.75 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.150 |
4.819% |
19.30 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
AusNet Services |
1H – Sep14 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.420 |
6.371% |
A$0.86 |
1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.0821) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Dec-14
- SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
- AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
- SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
- StarHub : Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
- SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
- SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
- SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
- SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
- ST Engg : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
- HLFin : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- M1 : 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
- SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
- ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
November 2014
Results Announcement
- 4 Nov 14 : SIAEC (1H15) – EPS 3.75ct vs 6.39ct (1H14) ; Div 6ct vs 7ct (1H14)
- 5 Nov 14 : Starhub (Q314) – EPS 5.7ct vs 5.5ct (Q313) ; Div 5ct (No Change)
- 6 Nov 14 : Singpost (Q215) – EPS 1.584ct ; Div 1.25ct
- 7 Nov 14 (AM) : STEng (Q314) – EPS 3.89ct vs 4.24ct (Q313)
- 7 Nov 14 : HLFin (Q314) – Annualised EPS 12.93ct
- 12 Nov 14 (AM) : AusNet (1H15) – Gross Div A4.18ct
- 12 Nov 14 : SBSTransit (Q314) – EPS 1.86ct vs 1.15ct (Q313)
- 13 Nov 14 (AM) : Singtel (Q215) – EPS 6.51ct vs 5.46ct (Q214) ; Div 6.8ct (No Change)
- 13 Nov 14 : ComfortDelgro (Q314) – EPS 3.78ct vs 3.61ct (Q313)
- 13 Nov 14 : SATS (Q215) – EPS 4.2ct vs 4.3ct (Q214) ; Div 5ct (No Change)
STI = 3350.50 (+9.54 ; +76.25 for the Month)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
Hong Leong Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.580 |
4.651% |
16.28 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SGX |
FY14 (Jun) |
30 |
28 |
$7.320 |
3.825% |
24.40 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct |
|
SingPost |
FY14 (Mar) |
6.746 |
6.25 |
$1.930 |
3.238% |
28.61 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY14 (Aug) |
25 |
21 |
$4.290 |
4.895% |
17.16 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 6ct |
Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY14 (Mar) |
16.10 |
13.0 |
$2.930 |
4.437% |
18.20 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SIA Engineering |
FY14 (Mar) |
23.88 |
25.0 |
$4.110 |
6.083% |
17.21 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct |
|
ST Engineering |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.370 |
4.451% |
17.99 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.720 |
1.047% |
47.51 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$2.600 |
2.692% |
20.92 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY14 (Mar) |
4.10 |
2.20 |
$1.630 |
1.350% |
39.76 |
Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY14 (Mar) |
22.92 |
16.8 |
$3.900 |
4.308% |
17.02 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.640 |
5.769% |
20.92 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.140 |
4.831% |
19.26 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
AusNet Services |
1H – Sep14 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.470 |
6.302% |
A$0.86 |
1H15 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1082) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 28-Nov-14
- SATSvcs : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6.8ct
- AusNet : 1H15 (Sep14) – A4.18ct = A2.2ct (Franked) + A1.98ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) ; 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns)
- SingPost : Q215 (Sep14) – 1.25ct ; Q115 (Jun14) – 1.25ct
- StarHub : Q314 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q214 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
- SIAEC : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 6ct
- SMRT : 1H15 (Sep14) – Interim 1.5ct
- SGX : Q115 (Sep14) – 4ct
- SPH : 2H14 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 6ct ; 1H14 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- ComfortDelgro : 1H14 (Jun) –3.5ct
- ST Engg : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- SBSTransit : 1H14 (Jun) – 1.25ct
- HLFin : 1H14 (Jun) – 4ct
- M1 : 1H14 (Jun) – Interim 7ct
- SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
- ST Engg : Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
Singpost – OCBC
On the growth path
- Healthy results
- Lower reliance on mail
- Prospects remain bright
Results in line
Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 8.1% YoY rise in revenue to S$220.3m and a 5.5% increase in net profit to S$37.6m in 2QFY15, such that 1HFY15 revenue and net profit accounted for 48% and 50% of our full year estimates, respectively. Mail revenue rose 3.2% YoY to S$123m in 2QFY15, boosted by increased ecommerce transshipments in the international mail business line. This offset the decline in the traditional postal business in domestic mail and hybrid mail, which remain challenging. Logistics revenue rose 15.1% YoY to S$109m, while group operating margin remained steady at 21%, similar to a year ago.
Continues to invest for the future
In the past few months, the group continued to invest in its various business segments. Strategic investments include the acquisition of FS Mackenzie (UK), Tras-Inter Co (Japan), The Store House (HK) and Axis Plaza (Malaysia). SingPost has also been upgrading its postal infrastructure in Singapore; out of the S$100m investment, S$45m was for mail sorting machines which will be fully operational in Dec.
Mail as a % of total revenue lowest in history
Meanwhile, we note that mail accounted for 56% of total revenue in 2QFY15, the lowest the group has seen in its history. This used to be more than 75% in as recent as 2009, and has been decreasing over the years as SingPost sought to reduce its reliance on the mail business. This underscores the group’s efforts to build its other business segments such as logistics, retail and ecommerce.
E-commerce related revenue grows 20% YoY
Indeed, SingPost’s ecommerce-related revenue for 1HFY15 accounted for about 27% or S$116.1m of total revenue, representing a 20% YoY growth. With close to 1,000 ecommerce customers across the group and ecommerce package volumes registering double-digit growth YoY, we increase our FCFE growth rate assumption from 9% to 10% in our 3-stage DCF model, resulting in a slightly higher fair value estimate of S$2.17 (prev. S$2.09). In line with its usual practice, SingPost has declared an interim quarterly dividend of 1.25 S cents per share, payable on 28 Nov 2014. Maintain BUY.
Singpost – OCBC
On the growth path
- Healthy results
- Lower reliance on mail
- Prospects remain bright
Results in line
Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 8.1% YoY rise in revenue to S$220.3m and a 5.5% increase in net profit to S$37.6m in 2QFY15, such that 1HFY15 revenue and net profit accounted for 48% and 50% of our full year estimates, respectively. Mail revenue rose 3.2% YoY to S$123m in 2QFY15, boosted by increased ecommerce transshipments in the international mail business line. This offset the decline in the traditional postal business in domestic mail and hybrid mail, which remain challenging. Logistics revenue rose 15.1% YoY to S$109m, while group operating margin remained steady at 21%, similar to a year ago.
Continues to invest for the future
In the past few months, the group continued to invest in its various business segments. Strategic investments include the acquisition of FS Mackenzie (UK), Tras-Inter Co (Japan), The Store House (HK) and Axis Plaza (Malaysia). SingPost has also been upgrading its postal infrastructure in Singapore; out of the S$100m investment, S$45m was for mail sorting machines which will be fully operational in Dec.
Mail as a % of total revenue lowest in history
Meanwhile, we note that mail accounted for 56% of total revenue in 2QFY15, the lowest the group has seen in its history. This used to be more than 75% in as recent as 2009, and has been decreasing over the years as SingPost sought to reduce its reliance on the mail business. This underscores the group’s efforts to build its other business segments such as logistics, retail and ecommerce.
E-commerce related revenue grows 20% YoY
Indeed, SingPost’s ecommerce-related revenue for 1HFY15 accounted for about 27% or S$116.1m of total revenue, representing a 20% YoY growth. With close to 1,000 ecommerce customers across the group and ecommerce package volumes registering double-digit growth YoY, we increase our FCFE growth rate assumption from 9% to 10% in our 3-stage DCF model, resulting in a slightly higher fair value estimate of S$2.17 (prev. S$2.09). In line with its usual practice, SingPost has declared an interim quarterly dividend of 1.25 S cents per share, payable on 28 Nov 2014. Maintain BUY.