Author: kktan
September 2013
STI = 3167.87 (+138.93 for the Month)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY12 (Dec) |
17.60 |
12.00 |
$2.610 |
4.598% |
14.83 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY13 (Mar) |
6.435 |
6.25 |
$1.265 |
4.941% |
19.66 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY12 (Aug) |
23 |
24.0 |
$4.110 |
5.839% |
17.87 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY13 (Mar) |
16.60 |
15.0 |
$3.260 |
4.601% |
19.64 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY13 (Mar) |
24.51 |
22.0 |
$4.860 |
4.527% |
19.83 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY12 (Dec) |
18.76 |
16.8 |
$4.170 |
4.029% |
22.23 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 9.8ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY12 (Dec) |
6.01 |
3.00 |
$1.350 |
2.222% |
22.46 |
Interim 1.35ct ; Final 1.65ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY12 (Dec) |
11.89 |
6.40 |
$1.970 |
3.249% |
16.57 |
Interim 2.9ct ; Final 3.5ct |
|
SMRT |
FY13 (Mar) |
5.5 |
2.50 |
$1.290 |
1.938% |
23.45 |
Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY13 (Mar) |
22.02 |
16.8 |
$3.730 |
4.504% |
16.94 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY12 (Dec) |
16.1 |
14.6 |
$3.280 |
4.451% |
20.37 |
Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct |
|
StarHub |
FY12 (Dec) |
20.93 |
20 |
$4.290 |
4.662% |
20.50 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar13 |
A4.1 (Gross) |
$1.395 |
6.890% |
A$0.91 |
1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct |
|
MIIF |
FY13 – Guidance |
1.90 |
$0.197 |
9.645% |
$0.250 |
1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special) ; Capital Return = 44.329ct + 1.04ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1721) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Sep-13
- MIIF : 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- ST Engg : 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct
- SBSTransit : Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- HLFin : 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- StarHub : Q213 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
- SingPost : Q413 Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
- SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
- SATSvcs : 2H13 (Mar13) – Final 6ct + Special 4ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 2H13 (Mar) – Final 10ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct ; Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
- SIAEC : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 15ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
- SMRT : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 1.0ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
- SPH : 1H13 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
- StarHub : FY13 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
September 2013
STI = 3167.87 (+138.93 for the Month)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
HL Fin |
FY12 (Dec) |
17.60 |
12.00 |
$2.610 |
4.598% |
14.83 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SingPost |
FY13 (Mar) |
6.435 |
6.25 |
$1.265 |
4.941% |
19.66 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY12 (Aug) |
23 |
24.0 |
$4.110 |
5.839% |
17.87 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct |
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY13 (Mar) |
16.60 |
15.0 |
$3.260 |
4.601% |
19.64 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct |
|
SIA Engg |
FY13 (Mar) |
24.51 |
22.0 |
$4.860 |
4.527% |
19.83 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY12 (Dec) |
18.76 |
16.8 |
$4.170 |
4.029% |
22.23 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 9.8ct |
Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY12 (Dec) |
6.01 |
3.00 |
$1.350 |
2.222% |
22.46 |
Interim 1.35ct ; Final 1.65ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY12 (Dec) |
11.89 |
6.40 |
$1.970 |
3.249% |
16.57 |
Interim 2.9ct ; Final 3.5ct |
|
SMRT |
FY13 (Mar) |
5.5 |
2.50 |
$1.290 |
1.938% |
23.45 |
Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY13 (Mar) |
22.02 |
16.8 |
$3.730 |
4.504% |
16.94 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY12 (Dec) |
16.1 |
14.6 |
$3.280 |
4.451% |
20.37 |
Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct |
|
StarHub |
FY12 (Dec) |
20.93 |
20 |
$4.290 |
4.662% |
20.50 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar13 |
A4.1 (Gross) |
$1.395 |
6.890% |
A$0.91 |
1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct |
|
MIIF |
FY13 – Guidance |
1.90 |
$0.197 |
9.645% |
$0.250 |
1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special) ; Capital Return = 44.329ct + 1.04ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1721) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Sep-13
- MIIF : 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- ST Engg : 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct
- SBSTransit : Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- HLFin : 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- StarHub : Q213 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
- SingPost : Q413 Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
- SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
- SATSvcs : 2H13 (Mar13) – Final 6ct + Special 4ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
- SingTel : 2H13 (Mar) – Final 10ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct ; Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
- SIAEC : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 15ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
- SMRT : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 1.0ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
- SPH : 1H13 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
- StarHub : FY13 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
Airport Services – CIMB
The sky is the limit
Despite the sharp fall in ASEAN currencies, Changi Airport’s traffic rose by 8.2% yoy in Aug2013 (the highest since Apr 2012) to reach a record high of955 flights per day. Travel to and from neighbouring Indonesia and Malaysia registered particularly strong growth.
We maintain our Overweight recommendation on the sector. SATS is our top pick, given its attractive valuation of 16x CY14 P/E and better liquidity. There are no changes to our EPS, recommendations and target prices. The catalysts for the sector are Changi’s stronger-than-expected volume growth and higher dividends.
What Happened
Singapore Changi Airport released its Aug 2013 traffic statistics, which revealed that the flights handled increased by 8.2% yoy to a new record high of 955 flights/day. Passengers handled rose 9.4% yoy to 4.68m. Travel demand in Aug was boosted by the extra long weekend, thanks to the Hari Raya Puasa and National Day public holidays in Singapore. Traffic between Singapore, China and Japan also grew by double-digits.
What We Think
Changi Airport’s better-than-expected passenger movements are encouraging because the ASEAN region was embroiled in foreign currency volatility in the past few months.
Due to capital outflows, the Malaysian ringgit (RM) weakened against the S$ by 0.8% mom in July and a further 2.3% mom in Aug. The Indonesian rupiah (Rp) fell against the S$ by 0.9% mom in July and 5.1% in Aug, and depreciated by a further 6% mom in Sep but has since stabilised, albeit at the lower level of Rp9,000 to the S$ (vs. Rp8,000 in Jun 2013). The RM recovered against the S$ by 0.1% mom in Sep.
Although the weaker regional currencies may impact outbound travel in the near term, the macro outlook for Southeast Asia remains positive. This supports our expected 2014 rebound in outbound travel. We forecast that the average GDP growth in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia will rebound from 4.8% in 2013 to 5.2% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015 (vs. 6.1% in 2012). Furthermore, the strong traffic growth between Singapore, China and Japan appears sustainable, given the improved economic outlook for North Asia.
What You Should Do
Stay invested in SIE and SATS. We expect share price upside in both companies from higher volumes in line maintenance and gateway services, given the positive statistics.
Land Transport – MayBank Kim Eng
Imminent Changes To Bus Operating Model
Current bus model is not sustainable; Tender system a possibility. With stagnating bus fares and rising cost from inflationary pressure, the two existing operators have been running loss-making operations for years. Under a business model that is financially unviable, we believe that SMRT and SBS Transit, a subsidiary of ComfortDelGro, would be reluctant to renew their bus licences when they are due in 2016. Hence, a change to the bus model is imminent, in our view, in favour of a tender system to award packages of service contracts. We believe that the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is currently evaluating the merits of a tender system, as evident from the tender system used to award service contracts since the start of the year.
Tendering system would likely reverse losses – upside to profits. In the near term, switching to a tender system will be positive for the Public Transport Operators (PTO), as losses at their bus units will reverse. The future profitability of the bus business would depend on the bids placed during tenders. Our analysis suggests that our profit estimates for next year would be raised by 18-22%, if the PTOs retain their current market share and their bus units achieve a 10% margin under the new business model
Key negatives for PTOs under new system. It appears that under a tendering system, the PTOs will be able to reverse losses and turn profitable. So what is the catch? We caution that there are at least three areas that would be negative for the two existing operators under a tender system: heightened competition, higher cost to ensure better service standards and shorter service contracts.
Net effect should still be positive for existing PTOs. While competition from new entrants would pose a threat, we believe that existing operators would still have an edge over new entrants with their scale of operations. Even if the existing operators do concede market share, their profitability under a tender system would still be an improvement over their current loss-making operations.
Sticking with current calls: BUY CDG, SELL SMRT. While switching to a tender system is positive for both PTOs, we maintain our preference for CDG over SMRT. We believe that our forecasts for significantly higher gearing at SMRT over the next few years will be reflected in lower stock valuations. Furthermore, PER valuations for CDG are relatively more attractive under various bus margin scenarios on a tender system. Reiterate BUY CDG, SELL SMRT.
SPH – CIMB
Deflated dividend expectations
SPH’s FY13 dividends could fall short of FY12’s 24 cents due to weak ad revenue and the loss of 30% of its property earnings. But one should not be negative on SPH as the S$757m raised from SPH REIT should compensate if management successfully develops new retail malls.
We reduce FY13-15 EPS by 2-13% for weaker ad revenues and the 30% fall in property earnings following the injection of two assets into the REIT. SPH remains a Neutral as potential dividend headwinds are balanced by S$757m cash proceeds that management is looking to deploy. Our SOP target price falls due to the payout of the 18 ct special dividend and a lower value for the core media operations after the EPS cuts.
Regular dividends may be lower than FY12’s 24 cents
We think there is a strong possibility that FY13-14 dividends (excluding 18cts special dividend) could be cut if management does not raise the payout ratio. FY13 core earnings are likely to come in around 13% lower than FY12 because of weak advertising revenues. 9M13 is already 13% lower yoy and it is unlikely that the seasonally weak 4Q13 can make up for the shortfall.
Even if the climate for advertisers picks up in FY14, it may not be able to offset the fall in earnings from the loss of 30% property income to SPH REIT. Furthermore, interest expense is set to rise as the overall cost of borrowing increases after the REIT transaction. The debt taken on at SPH REIT costs 2.4% and is estimated to increase SPH’s overall funding cost from 2.1% to 2.3%.
S$757m war chest
Dividend headwinds are tempered by the large cash pile that management raised from SPH REIT. It will presumably use the cash to develop new retail malls, which management has a good track record in. Paragon achieved 7% rental CAGR in FY03-12. Furthermore, having a platform to recycle capital allows SPH to bid more aggressively for land sites, knowing that it has a ready buyer.
Staying Neutral
We are keeping our Neutral call. SPH still offers 5.1% yield even if dividends are cut to 21 cents. This compares favourably with FCT’s 6.1% and CMT’s 4.9%, with the added kicker of S$757m of net cash proceeds raised) for SPH compared
to 0.4x net gearing for FCT and CMT.