Author: tfwee

 

March 2008

STI = 3007.36 (-24.54)

Stock

Period

DPS ct

Price

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SPH

FY07 : Aug

26.0

S$4.60

5.652%

14.38

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 10ct (Special)

SingPost

FY07 : Mar

6.25

S$1.15

5.435%

15.78

Q1 1.25ct ; Q2 1.25ct ; Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

Sing Food

FY07 : Dec

5.0

S$0.745

6.711%

12.21

Interim 1.8ct ; Final 3.2ct

STEng

FY07 : Dec

16.88

S$3.38

4.994%

19.94

Final 4ct + 10.88ct (Special) ; Interim 2ct

Transport

Stock

Period

DPS ct

Price

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY07 : Dec

17.25

S$2.48

6.956%

15.15

Interim 6ct ; Special 8ct ; Final 3.25ct

ComfortDelgro

FY07 : Dec

10.15

S$1.82

5.577%

16.96

Interim 3.125ct + Special 3.375 ; Final 3ct + Special 1.5ct

SMRT

FY07 : Mar

7.25

S$1.82

3.984%

20.45

Interim 1.5ct ; Final 5.75ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

DPS ct

Price

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY07 : Mar

20.6

S$3.91

5.269%

16.82

Interim 4.6ct ; Final 6.5ct + Special 9.5ct

M1

FY07 : Dec

15.4

S$2.12

7.264%

11.46

Interim 2.5ct + 4.6ct (Capital Reduction) ; Final 8.3ct

StarHub

FY07 : Dec

16.0

S$3.04

5.263%

16.24

Q1 3.5ct ; Q2 4.0ct ; Q3 4.0ct ; Q4 4.5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS ct

Price

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

1H : Sep-07

A5.6142

S$1.52

9.316%

A$1.11 (NTA)

1H A5.6142ct @ 1.2585

MIIF

2H : Dec-07

4.25

S$0.80

10.625%

$1.31

2H 4.25ct ; 1H 4.15ct

MacCookPSF

Q2 : Dec-07

A2.31

S$0.71

16.412%

A$1.033

Q208 A2.31ct @ 1.2485 ; Q108 A2.31ct @ 1.3144

* SPAus and MacCookPSF DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2611) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Mar-08
  • MIIF : 2H07 (Dec) – 4.25ct ; 1H07 (Jun) – 4.15ct
  • ST Engg : Q407 (Dec) – 4ct + Special 10.88ct ; Q207 (Jun) – 2ct
  • ComfortDelgro : Q407 (Dec) – 2.65ct ; Q207 (Jun) – Interim 3.35ct + Special 4.15ct
  • SBSTransit : Q407 (Dec) 3.25ct ; Q307 (Sep) – 8ct ; Q207 (Jun) – 6ct
  • StarHub : Q407 (Dec) – 4.5ct ; Q307 (Sep) – 4ct ; Q207 (Jun) – 4ct ; Q107 (Mar) – 3.5ct
  • Sing Food : Q407 (Dec) – 3.2ct ; Q307 (Sep) – 1.8ct
  • SingPost : Q308 (Dec) – 1.25ct ; Q208 (Sep) – 1.25ct ; Q108 (Jun) – 1.25ct
  • M1 : 2H07 (Dec) – Final 8.3ct ; 1H07 (Jun) – Interim 2.5ct + Capital Reduction 4.6ct
  • SPAus : 1H08 (Sep07) – A5.776ct (before tax) / A5.6142ct (after tax)
  • SingTel : Q208 (Sep07) – Interim 5.6ct
  • SMRT : Q208 (Sep07) – Interim 1.75ct
  • MacCookPSF : Q208 (Dec07) A2.31ct @ 1.2485 ; Q108 (Sep07) – A2.625ct (Gross) / A2.31ct (After With-hldg Tax)
  • SPH : FY07 (Aug) – Final 9ct + Special 10ct ; Interim (Feb) 7ct

ComfortDelgro – UOBKH

Setting a new target for oversea revenue contribution

ComfortDegro has just announced a new target, ie, 70% of turnover to be contributed by oversea markets in the next five to seven years. This is up from the previous 50% target set a few years back, which the company is well on track to realize. At this juncture, oversea markets contributed 47.0% and 46.2% of turnover and operating profit respectively in FY07, vs 44.6% and 42.3% in FY06.

Strong execution capabilities in oversea expansion. ComfortDegro has grown its oversea markets via both organic growth and acquisition. Turnover of oversea markets grew at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2003 to 2007, significantly higher than that of its home market (Singapore) at 4.7%. Push for a wider use of public transport is an important approach by governments to alleviate traffic congestion and pollution issues linked with massive private vehicle ownership. We believe this bodes well for public transport operators like ComfortDegro in the long term.

BUY ComfortDegro. We like the company’s diversified exposure in land transport business. Its decent 6-7% dividend yield has limited downside risks under current volatile market environments. (Target price under review. previous: S$2.46)

ComfortDelgro – BT

ComfortDelGro sets new goal of 70% overseas revenue

TO mark its fifth anniversary, ComfortDelGro Corp has set a target of achieving 70 per cent of annual turnover from overseas operations within five to seven years.

When the land transport giant was formed five years ago after the merger of Comfort Group and DelGro Corp, its mid-term target was to derive 50 per cent of total revenue from abroad. It is almost there. For the year ended Dec 31, 2007, overseas operations accounted for 47 per cent of group turnover and 46 per cent of group operating profit.

Its record overseas turnover of $1.4 billion was thanks to strong performances by bus operations in the UK, Sydney and Shenyang, and taxi operations in the UK and Beijing.

‘As we celebrate our fifth anniversary, we have to ask ourselves how we are going to sustain and further grow our business in today’s highly competitive and fast-changing landscape,’ ComfortDelGro chairman Lim Jit Poh said at a gala dinner yesterday.

‘My board is not just satisfied with our present achievement. We are hungry and want to do more. We are now setting ourselves a new target, increasing our overseas turnover to the next hurdle of 70 per cent of our total turnover within the next five to seven years.’

He said that although this will not be easy to achieve because the group is now starting from a much larger base, it is a target that must be set.

Since its formation, ComfortDelGro has adopted an aggressive overseas expansion strategy to become the world’s second-largest land transport company today. It has a global fleet of more than 41,000 vehicles and 22,000 staff. It operates in 23 cities across seven countries – Singapore, China, the UK, Ireland, Australia, Vietnam and Malaysia. In terms of the number of countries, the group has added only one – Australia – compared with five years ago. But the difference is that its presence in each country today is huge.

ComfortDelGro has so far invested $791.9 million overseas. The bulk, $309 million, is in China, followed closely behind by the UK and Ireland with $294 million. Australia is a fast-growing market and third at $176.5 million, while Vietnam and Malaysia account for $8.5 million and $4 million respectively.

‘From humble beginnings, ComfortDelGro Corporation has grown into a multi-modal, multinational land transport operator,’ said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Lim Boon Heng, who was guest-of-honour at yesterday’s dinner. ‘It is not just number one in Singapore. It is number two in the world.’

He called ComfortDelGro a ‘Singapore success story’ and said it has the best global footprint: ‘It has grown its businesses and positioned itself well in different markets. It has stayed focused on its core business and built upon its strengths to the benefit of the communities in which it serves.’

StarHub – CIMB

Wins additional 2G spectrum rights

StarHub has successfully retained its four lots of 1800 MHz spectrum rights and won two additional lots of 2G spectrum − one lot of 1800 MHz and one lot of EGSM − in a spectrum reallocation exercise held by the IDA. Existing spectrum rights for all three mobile operators (SingTel, M1, StarHub) were originally due to expire on 30 Sep 08, but have now been extended to 31 Dec 08. The six lots of spectrum would cost StarHub a one-time fee of S$1.9m. The rights are effective from 1 Jan 09 to 31 Mar 17.

Prior to the spectrum reallocation exercise, SingTel held seven lots of spectrum (four in 1800 MHz, three in 900 MHz), M1 held six lots (four in 1800 MHz, two in 900 MHz) while StarHub held four lots (all 1800 MHz). All 17 existing spectrum lots and an additional lot of EGSM (total 18 lots) were up for reallocation. Since only the three mobile operators submitted bids, each received six lots of spectrum.

Comments

Prospects of improved coverage quality but no significant earnings impact. The win of the EGSM spectrum, which operates on 900 MHz, is positive in that it will enable StarHub to improve its mobile coverage in harder-to-serve areas such as distant military camps, hilly or forested areas and the basements of buildings, etc. due to better signal propagation properties relative to the 1800 MHz spectrum. This would improve StarHub’s mobile subscriber experience but we do not expect a significant impact on earnings. The new spectrum lots are not expected to require fundamental changes to mobile networks and the cost for spectrum had been included in management’s guidance for 2008.

Valuation and recommendation

Maintain Outperform and DCF-based target price of S$3.76 (WACC: 6.9%, growth: 1%). StarHub remains our top Singapore telco pick for its attractive CY08 yield prospect of 9.8% backed by strong free cash flow, an unrivalled triple-play proposition and exposure to telco service consumption growth in Singapore spurred by an immigration and tourism boom. Key catalysts for a sustained outperformance could include an upgrade on consensus dividend/capital return expectations which remain well below StarHub’s free cash flow prospects, steady earnings delivery (cable TV likely to surprise on the upside) and a risk-averse market environment.

SPAusNet – BT

SP Ausnet upgrades earnings forecasts

Australian infrastructure firm SP Ausnet upgraded its earnings forecasts for the 2008/09 year yesterday, buoyed by higher revenues and a debt refinancing.

SP Ausnet, which owns and operates power transmission networks in Victoria state, said it expected net profit to be about 15 per cent higher than a forecast in its 2007 explanatory memorandum of A$147.5 million (S$187.4 million).

Distribution guidance of about 2.5 per cent growth in distributions per security remained unchanged.

SP Ausnet, which is 51 per cent owned by state-owned utility Singapore Power, said revenues would benefit from last month’s decision on transmission charges by the Australian Energy Regulator, along with higher capital expenditure allowances.

Earnings would also be boosted by the refinancing of A$1.55 billion in debt and the finalisation of new interest rate hedges.

SP Ausnet last year pulled out of a plan to pay A$8.3 billion for assets of former energy firm Alinta, blaming a downturn in capital markets which would have increased the cost of the deal. — Reuters