Author: tfwee
SingTel – DBS
Cheapest telco in Singapore
• Trading at 11.6x PER, below 12.3x for MSCI Asia-Ex Japan telco services and cheaper than smaller peers StarHub and M1.
• Sharp recovery in Indonesia and stronger rupiah prompted 3%/6% upgrade of FY10F/11F earnings.
NCS is also making solid progress in Singapore.
• Upgrade to BUY with revised TP of S$3.50. Rumors of Optus re-listing, if true, could add 50 Scents to our TP.
Telkomsel should offset Bharti’s weakness. Telkomsel’s CEO Mr. Sarwoto Atmosutarno commented recently that Telkomsel’s subscriber base grew 26% y-o-y in 2009, and aims to grow that by another 14-15% in 2010. We raised our FY10F/11F (FYE March) earnings for Telkomsel by 12%/19%. We forecast SGD earnings growth of 30%/13% and 12%/-10% for Telkomsel and Bharti in FY10F/11F. Telkomsel earnings should offset potential S$85m drop to Bharti’s earnings contribution in FY11F, in our view.
Optus re-listing could add 50 Scents. The Wall Street Journal reported on 14 Jan that the sale of 25% stake in Optus is likely to raise A$4bn; SingTel declined to comment. If true, this could add 50 Scents to SingTel’s valuation. We estimate Optus’ market value at A$9b-11b, but SingTel might secure premium valuation for Optus, based on a higher dividend yield; similar to Maxis’ IPO. A much stronger AUD/SGD exchange rate of 1.25 is also favorable. In fact, SingTel could consider special dividends from Optus re-listing proceeds if it cannot find right acquisition targets, in our view.
Upgrade to BUY. SingTel is trading at 11.7x FY11F PER compared to StarHub’s 12.7x and M1’s 12.2x, despite a diversified business model and better growth prospects. Our earnings revision prompts higher SOTP valuation from Telkomsel (better outlook) and Optus (AUD/SGD) rate).
SingPost – BT
SingPost reports 20.6% rise in Q3 profit
Consolidation of Quantium Solutions’ income lifts group revenue
SINGPOST turned in a better performance for the December quarter compared to a year ago, which it attributed to an improving economy, government relief measures and the consolidation of a new business, Quantium Solutions.
But its mail and logistics revenues fell, as a result of lower domestic mail and lower Speedpost revenues.
SingPost’s net profit attributable to equity holders for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2009, improved 20.6 per cent to $44.1 million.
‘In tandem with the turnaround in the economy and with the benefits of the government’s relief measures, we have seen some recovery in the operating performance of the business,’ said Ng Hin Lee, deputy group CEO of SingPost. ‘This, coupled with the consolidation of our regional outfit, Quantium Solutions (formerly known as G3 Worldwide Aspac), enabled us to achieve a healthy set of results.’
Group revenue went up 12.7 per cent to $139.6 million, due mainly to the consolidation of revenue from Quantium Solutions. SingPost said that without the consolidation of Quantium, its revenues would have declined 0.6 per cent.
Its mail revenue dropped by 1.2 per cent to $94.4 million as a result of lower domestic mail and philatelic contributions. Thanks to the consolidation of revenue from Quantium, SingPost’s logistics revenue grew 166 per cent to $49.2 million; without that, its logistics revenue would have declined as a result of lower Speedpost revenue.
The group’s rental and property-related income rose 22.2 per cent to $10.2 million, thanks to higher rentals from its Singapore Post Centre and the leasing of space at the repurposed post office buildings.
Its earnings per share rose to 2.291 cents, from 1.899 cents the year before. And it declared an interim quarterly dividend of 1.25 cents per ordinary share, to be paid on Feb 26.
Going forward, the group said it’s cautiously optimistic about the business outlook and will remain vigilant on cost management.
SingPost said that Singapore was reclassified as a New Target Country, from a Developing Country, by the Universal Postal Union. Its operating costs would now rise due to the increase in its net terminal dues payments for international mailing. SingPost estimates the annualised impact to be around 5 per cent of underlying net profit. It said it has taken and will continue to take active measures to mitigate the effect.
‘It is imperative that we continue to be disciplined in reviewing our operations to improve efficiency and productivity even as we stay vigilant on costs. On the revenue front, we will focus on optimising our resources such as our retail network to achieve better yields,’ Mr Ng said.
SingPost said it’s maintaining its focus on expanding Quantium Solutions’ business beyond crossborder mail and extending its core competencies in the Asia-Pacific.
January 2010
Results Announcement
- 13 Jan 10 : SPH (Q110 – Nov09) – EPS 9ct
- 18 Jan 10 : STI ETF – Div 3ct
- 19 Jan 10 : M1 (Q409) – EPS 4.2ct (todate 16.8ct) ; Div 7.2ct (todate 13.4ct)
- 27 Jan 10 : SMRT (Q310) – EPS 2.6ct (todate 9.2ct)
- 29 Jan 10 : SingPost (Q310) – EPS 2.291ct (todate 6.44ct) ; Div 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
- 4 Feb 10 : StarHub
- 9 Feb 10 (AM) : SingTel
- 18 Feb 10 : STEng
STI = 2745.35 (-12.33)
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|||
|
SPH |
FY09 : Aug |
25.0 |
S$3.70 |
6.757% |
14.23 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 9ct (Special) |
|||
|
SingPost |
FY09 : Mar |
6.25 |
S$1.01 |
6.188% |
13.07 |
Q1 1.25ct ; Q2 1.25ct ; Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|||
|
STI ETF |
Dec-09 |
3.0 |
S$2.80 |
2.143% |
— |
Dec09 3ct ; Jun09 4ct ; Dec08 5ct ; Jun08 6ct |
|||
|
STEng |
FY08 : Dec |
15.8 |
S$3.09 |
5.113% |
19.53 |
Final 4ct + 8.8ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
|||
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY08 : Dec |
6.6 |
S$1.73 |
3.815% |
13.12 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 3.6ct |
|
ComfortDelgro |
FY08 : Dec |
5.0 |
S$1.59 |
3.145% |
16.58 |
Interim 2.6ct ; Final 2.4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY09 : Mar |
7.75 |
S$1.90 |
4.079% |
17.76 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.0ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY09 : Mar |
12.5 |
S$3.01 |
4.153% |
13.89 |
Interim 5.6ct ; Final 6.9ct |
|
M1 |
FY09 : Dec |
13.4 |
S$2.07 |
6.473% |
12.32 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 7.2ct |
|
StarHub |
FY08 : Dec |
18.0 |
S$2.17 |
8.295% |
11.87 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 4.5ct ; Q4 4.5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS ct |
Price |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
1H10 : Sep09 |
A4.0 (Gross) |
S$1.13 |
8.877% |
A$0.91 (NTA) |
2H09 A5.6578ct ; 1H09 A5.7431ct |
|
MIIF |
1H : Jun-09 |
1.5 |
S$0.48 |
6.250% |
$0.81 |
2H08 3.0ct ; 1H08 4.25ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2539) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 29-Jan-10
- SingPost : Q310 (Dec09) – 1.25ct ; Q210 (Sep09) – 1.25ct ; Q110 (Jun09) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 2H09 (Dec) – Final 7.2ct ; 1H09 (Jun) – Interim 6.2ct
- SPAus : 1H09 (Sep08) – A4ct (before tax) / Est. A3.8113ct (after tax)
- SingTel : 1H10 (Sep09) – Interim 6.2ct
- StarHub : FY09 Div Policy 19ct ie. Q1/Q2 : 4.5ct ; Q3/Q4 : 5ct
- StarHub : Q309 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q209 (Jun) – 4.5ct ; Q109 (Mar) – 4.5ct
- SMRT : Q210 (Sep09) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 2H09 (Aug) – Final 9ct ; Special 9ct ; 1H09 (Feb) – 7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q209 (Jun) – 2.63ct
- SBSTransit : Q209 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- MIIF : 1H09 (Dec) – 1.5ct
- ST Engg : Q209 (Jun) – 3ct
- SPAus : Projected DPU = A8ct (FY10 – Year End Mar-10) ; 1-for-4 Rights @ A$0.78/S$0.86
StarHub – OCBC
4Q09 results may surprise on upside
4Q09 results may surprise on upside. StarHub Ltd is due to release its 4Q09 results on 4 Feb, and its results may surprise on the upside, if the better-than-expected 4Q09 results from rival MobileOne are any indication. As a recap, M1 saw operating revenue jump 11.0% YoY and 14.8% QoQ to S$216.2m, while net profit climbed 1.6% YoY and 8.8% QoQ to S$37.2m, no doubt aided by the timely launch of the Apple iPhone 3GS in Dec. For StarHub, we are expecting revenue to come in around S$546.6m and net profit of S$77.1m, although we do not rule out the iPhone launch giving a similar boost to StarHub’s 4Q09 performance. On the dividend front, StarHub has also committed itself to paying out a quarterly cash dividend of S$0.05 per share.
2010 outlook also likely to improve. Going into 2010, we believe that StarHub is also likely to be cautiously more optimistic about its mobile operations, just like M1, buoyed by the global economic recovery and opening of the two IRs (Integrated Resorts) in Singapore. Still, StarHub will be facing a big shake-up in its Pay TV segment with the loss of the coveted EPL (English Premier League) broadcast rights for 2010-2012 season. But StarHub believes that the impact of the loss of its premier sports content will remain EBITDA neutral, as it expects just 10% of its 535k subscribers to give up its pay TV services completely, and this will be balanced by lower sports content cost. However, we are less sanguine. Instead, we believe the loss is probably closer to 15-18% and it will also suffer a double whammy in terms of ARPU.
NBN boost to fixed network segment. On the other hand, the roll-out of the NBN from mid-2010 should give a lift to its fledging fixed network services. Besides winning the OpCo bid through its subsidiary Nucleus Connect, the “open” framework will allow StarHub to reach out to thousands of non-residential buildings that it currently does not service today. It should also be able to enjoy cost savings from the current leasing expenses it needs to pay SingTel. However, StarHub notes that competition may increase ahead of the NBN launch from mid-2010.
Maintain BUY with S$2.29 fair value. As FY09 results are just around the corner, we hold off revising our FY10 estimates, but we continue to like Starhub for its defensive earnings and attractive yield (~9.4%). Maintain BUY with S$2.29 fair value.