Slightly below expectations

Company Overview

ComfortDelGro Corporation (CDG) is a land transport conglomerate with businesses across various business segments and geography. The bus and taxi businesses are the largest profit contributors for the Group.

• Net income increased 3.1%y-y

• Higher fuel expense, staff cost & depreciation expense resulted in a 0.4ppt decline in EBIT margin

• Final DPS of 3.30cents proposed

• Maintain Buy with revised TP of S$1.66

What is the news?

CDG announced a 6.4% and 3.1% increase in sales and net income for the year. However, margin pressures from higher fuel expense, staff cost and depreciation expense resulted in a 0.4ppt decline in EBIT margin. While revenue continue to increase sequentially, 4QFY11 net profits fell by 18%q-q, due to a c.S$10mn decline in operating profits for both the taxi and bus businesses. Final dividends of 3.30cents proposed, translating to a full year payout ratio of 53.3%.

How do we view this?

The results for the year were slightly weaker than expected. Key variances from our 4QFY11 estimates were 1) Operating losses of S$5mn at SBST’s bus business; 2) c.3.4% decline in average passenger rail fare; 3) operating losses at China’s bus business. Looking ahead to FY12E, we believe that rail business would likely register a decline in margins as the company increase staff headcount in preparation for the launch of Downtown Line (DTL) at the end of FY13E.

Investment Actions?

We revised our forecasts down by 7.9-11.4% for the next 2 years and lowered our target price to S$1.66 based on 15X FY12E EPS. CDG remains undervalued at the current market price. Maintain Buy.

Slightly below expectations

Company Overview

ComfortDelGro Corporation (CDG) is a land transport conglomerate with businesses across various business segments and geography. The bus and taxi businesses are the largest profit contributors for the Group.

• Net income increased 3.1%y-y

• Higher fuel expense, staff cost & depreciation expense resulted in a 0.4ppt decline in EBIT margin

• Final DPS of 3.30cents proposed

• Maintain Buy with revised TP of S$1.66

What is the news?

CDG announced a 6.4% and 3.1% increase in sales and net income for the year. However, margin pressures from higher fuel expense, staff cost and depreciation expense resulted in a 0.4ppt decline in EBIT margin. While revenue continue to increase sequentially, 4QFY11 net profits fell by 18%q-q, due to a c.S$10mn decline in operating profits for both the taxi and bus businesses. Final dividends of 3.30cents proposed, translating to a full year payout ratio of 53.3%.

How do we view this?

The results for the year were slightly weaker than expected. Key variances from our 4QFY11 estimates were 1) Operating losses of S$5mn at SBST’s bus business; 2) c.3.4% decline in average passenger rail fare; 3) operating losses at China’s bus business. Looking ahead to FY12E, we believe that rail business would likely register a decline in margins as the company increase staff headcount in preparation for the launch of Downtown Line (DTL) at the end of FY13E.

Investment Actions?

We revised our forecasts down by 7.9-11.4% for the next 2 years and lowered our target price to S$1.66 based on 15X FY12E EPS. CDG remains undervalued at the current market price. Maintain Buy.

ComfortDelGro’s Q4 profit up 3.5%

Full-year net up 3.1% at $235.6m; rise driven mainly by taxi, rail businesses

COMFORTDELGRO’S net profit for the 2011 fourth quarter climbed 3.5 per cent to $56.5 million, from $54.6 million a year earlier.

The rise in profit attributable to shareholders came on the back of a 7.2 per cent year-on-year rise in group revenue to $887.2 million.

Total operating expenses for the quarter increased 7.7 per cent to $791.5 million, contributed in part by a 20.2 per cent year-on-year surge in fuel and electricity costs to $73.9 million. The quarter saw taxi drivers’ benefits dropping 14.2 per cent to $19.3 million.

For the full year ended Dec 31, 2011, net profit rose 3.1 per cent to $235.6 million, with the increase driven mainly by its taxi and rail businesses.

Full-year revenue climbed 6.4 per cent to a record $3.41 billion, with the land transport giant attributing growth from all business segments. Revenue could have been higher if not for the negative foreign currency effect of $16.0 million.

Group operating expenses for the 12 months rose 6.9 per cent to $3.01 billion on increases in materials and consumables, fuel and electricity costs, staff costs and depreciation, among others, although these were mitigated by a positive foreign currency translation effect of $20.2 million. For example, materials and consumables jumped 23.8 per cent to $336.4 million, while fuel and electricity costs surged 20.7 per cent to $283.3 million. Staff costs, the group’s biggest cost component, rose 5.0 per cent to $1.04 billion. Taxi drivers’ benefits fell 14.3 per cent to $66.7 per cent.

Operating profit was 2.8 per cent higher at $399.2 million.

ComfortDelGro said that overseas operating profit accounted for 45.8 per cent of group operating profit, while overseas revenue made up 42.2 per cent of group revenue. Its global fleet size of buses, taxis and rental vehicles has also increased to a record of some 46,300 vehicles.

Full year earnings per share rose to 11.26 cents from 10.95 cents, while the group’s net asset value was 90.46 cents as at Dec 31, 2011, up from 86.20 cents 12 months earlier.

A final dividend of 3.30 cents per share has been proposed.

As its biggest business segment, buses brought in revenue of $1.69 billion for the group in 2011, or up 4.5 per cent. Operating profit slipped 2.8 per cent to $145.0 million due mainly to decreases in SBS Transit and the China bus business but was offset by an increase in the Australian bus business. The operating profit of the overseas bus business continued to outstrip that of the Singapore bus business and accounted for 85.8 per cent of group bus operating profit.

The group’s taxi business chalked up revenue of $1.039 billion or a 5.8 per cent hike, with taxi revenue crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time thanks to a larger global fleet. Operating profit rose 8.6 per cent to $129.6 million. In Singapore, revenue from the local taxi business climbed 7.6 per cent to $748.7 million due to an increase in replacement taxis, a larger fleet, and a higher volume of cashless transactions. Operating profit was 9.7 per cent higher at $83.8 million.

Revenue from the rail business grew 10.5 per cent to $134.4 million due to an increase in average daily ridership and in spite of lower average fares, with operating profit rising 8.2 per cent to $27.7 million.

Also showing an improvement in operating profit was the vehicle inspection and testing business. Revenue rose 8.7 per cent to $93.5 million, with operating profit rising 12.5 per cent to $30.7 million as more cars were inspected and higher sales were achieved by Setsco Services.

Looking ahead, ComfortDelGro sees bus and rail ridership increasing at a slower rate because of the expected economic slowdown. It expects revenue from the UK bus business to continue being affected by the currency translation effect of the weaker pound sterling. But improvements are likely from the Australian bus business, and the taxi businesses in Singapore, China and Australia.

ComfortDelGro shares closed trading yesterday at $1.48, up half a cent.