SIAEC – CIMB

Near peak, switch to SATS

SIA Eng’s share price has outperformed the index by 33% since Jan 12 and now trades close to its historical peak. We recommend switching to SATS to take advantage of the capacity growth in Changi Airport, with easing food inflation being an additional catalyst.

 

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with unchanged target price, on blended P/E and DCF valuations. Its 13% YTD surge leaves it vulnerable to profit taking as early year optimism dwindles. However, we still like its decent dividend yield of 4.3% and 7.8% 3-year CAGR in earnings. Our EPS remains intact. We will revisit this stock on margin expansion or stronger-than-expected volume from airframe maintenance.

Fully valued

At 18x CY13 P/E and 4.3x CY12 P/BV, SIE is trading above +1 s.d. of its 5-year mean, with an implied earnings growth of 12% from FY13-15. This suggests a much more bullish outlook of MRO spending vs. the global industry forecast of 4%. We note that SIE has only achieved an average growth of 3% since 2007. The upside risks to our argument could come from stronger-than-expected (85%) dividend payout in FY13.

Strong growth in Changi factored in

We believe the recent share price surge is partly due to optimism over Changi’s breakthrough, with an average of 920 flights handled per day, crossing the 900 mark for the first time. However we have factored in 9% yoy growth in FY13 for SIE’s line maintenance volume, which outpaced the expected growth in capacity expansion in Changi of about 4%.

Switch to SATS

SATS, with stronger earnings growth (3-year CAGR of 10%), could be a cheaper pick at 17x CY13 P/E vs. SIE’s 18x and lower earnings growth. Secondly, SATS has potential for margin expansion if food inflation is kept at bay (refer to Wen Ching Lee’s SATS report entitled “Ready for take-off” and dated 22 Jan 2013). Meanwhile, SIE’s margin is trending downwards on the back of higher subcontractor and materials costs. Finally, SATS offers higher share liquidity with a 57% free float vs. SIE’s 20%.

SATS – Phillip

Healthy growth on seasonal strength

Company Overview

SATS Ltd is a provider of Airport Services & Food Solutions with a dominant presence in Singapore’s Changi Airport. The Group also has a network of JVs across Asia and holds a majority stake in TFK Corp, an inflight catering business based in Japan.

  • 7.6% growth in underlying net profit.
  • Guidance positive for passenger travel business, while air freight business is expected to remain weak.
  • We expect dividend yields to sustain above 5% over the next few years.
  • Maintain Accumulate with TP of S$3.33.

What is the news?

Driven by strong performance of its aviation business units in Singapore, SATS reported a 23% surge in profit for 3QFY13. When normalized to exclude one-off items in the previous quarter, underlying profits improved by 7.6%. EBITDA margins were stable at 15.0% (vs 3QFY12: 15.5%). Contribution from TFK was mildly impacted by a decline in traffic flows due to a seasonally stronger 2QFY13 and depreciation of the JPY. Outlook statement is positive for the passenger travel business, while the air freight business is expected to remain weak.

How do we view this?

As guided in our commentaries for the results season, the surge in profits was expected due to a seasonally stronger quarter for the aviation business in Singapore. CAPEX for 9MFY13 of S$28.4mn is significantly lower than its normalized level of S$50-70mn a year, which could lead to cash build up by the end of FY13E.

Investment Actions?

We maintain our view that SATS have the capacity to dish out significantly higher levels of dividends to shareholders over the next few years. Assuming a 90% payout ratio, we forecast dividend yields of >5% over the next few years. Maintain Accumulate with revised TP of S$3.33, as we roll forward our valuation basis.

SATS – Phillip

Healthy growth on seasonal strength

Company Overview

SATS Ltd is a provider of Airport Services & Food Solutions with a dominant presence in Singapore’s Changi Airport. The Group also has a network of JVs across Asia and holds a majority stake in TFK Corp, an inflight catering business based in Japan.

  • 7.6% growth in underlying net profit.
  • Guidance positive for passenger travel business, while air freight business is expected to remain weak.
  • We expect dividend yields to sustain above 5% over the next few years.
  • Maintain Accumulate with TP of S$3.33.

What is the news?

Driven by strong performance of its aviation business units in Singapore, SATS reported a 23% surge in profit for 3QFY13. When normalized to exclude one-off items in the previous quarter, underlying profits improved by 7.6%. EBITDA margins were stable at 15.0% (vs 3QFY12: 15.5%). Contribution from TFK was mildly impacted by a decline in traffic flows due to a seasonally stronger 2QFY13 and depreciation of the JPY. Outlook statement is positive for the passenger travel business, while the air freight business is expected to remain weak.

How do we view this?

As guided in our commentaries for the results season, the surge in profits was expected due to a seasonally stronger quarter for the aviation business in Singapore. CAPEX for 9MFY13 of S$28.4mn is significantly lower than its normalized level of S$50-70mn a year, which could lead to cash build up by the end of FY13E.

Investment Actions?

We maintain our view that SATS have the capacity to dish out significantly higher levels of dividends to shareholders over the next few years. Assuming a 90% payout ratio, we forecast dividend yields of >5% over the next few years. Maintain Accumulate with revised TP of S$3.33, as we roll forward our valuation basis.

January 2013

Results announcement

  • 14 Jan 13 : SPH (Q113) – EPS = 6ct
  • 21 Jan 13 (AM) : MIIF (2H12) – DPU = 2.75ct (Final) + 3ct (Special)
  • 21 Jan 13 : M1 (Q412) – EPS = 4.1ct (todate 16.1ct) ; Div = 6.3ct Final + 1.7ct Special (todate 14.6ct)
  • 25 Jan 13 : SingPost (Q313) – EPS = 1.889ct (todate 5.25ct) ; Div = 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
  • 29 Jan 13 : SMRT (Q313) – EPS = 1.7ct (todate 6.3ct)
  • 30 Jan 13 : SATS (Q313) – EPS = 4.2ct (todate 12.5ct)
  • 5 Feb 13 : SIAEC (Q313)
  • 7 Feb 13 : SBSTransit (Q412)
  • 8 Feb 13 : ComfortDelgro (Q412)
  • 14 Feb 13 (AM) : SingTel (Q313)
  • 15 Feb 13 : STEng (Q412)

 

 

STI = 3280.39 (-5.51)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY11 (Dec)

22.65

12.00

$2.700

4.444%

11.92

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY12 (Mar)

7.407

6.25

$1.210

5.165%

16.34

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY12 (Aug)

23

24.0

$4.100

5.854%

17.83

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY12 (Mar)

15.40

26.0

$3.050

8.525%

19.81

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct

SIA Engg

FY12 (Mar)

24.56

21.0

$4.950

4.242%

20.15

Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY11 (Dec)

17.28

15.5

$3.920

3.954%

22.69

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8.5ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY11 (Dec)

11.89

5.90

$1.510

3.907%

12.70

Interim 3.1ct ; Final 2.8ct

ComfortDelGro

FY11 (Dec)

11.27

6.00

$1.930

3.109%

17.13

Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct

SMRT

FY12 (Mar)

7.9

7.45

$1.630

4.571%

20.63

Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY12 (Mar)

25.04

15.8

$3.500

4.514%

13.98

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct

M1

FY12 (Dec)

16.1

14.6

$2.780

5.252%

17.27

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct

StarHub

FY11 (Dec)

18.40

20

$3.900

5.128%

21.20

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

1H – Sep12

A4.1 (Gross)

$1.495

7.070%

$1.300

1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H12 A4.0ct

MIIF

2H – Dec12

5.75

$0.650

8.462%

$0.700

1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special)

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2889) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Jan-13
  • M1 : 2H12 (Dec) – Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct ; 1H12 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
  • MIIF : 1H12 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 2.75ct (Final) + 3ct (Special) ; Above Yield is Computed without Special Dividend
  • SingTel : 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct
  • SPAus : 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
  • SATSvcs : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
  • StarHub : Q312 (sep) – 5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SMRT : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SIAEC : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
  • SingPost : Q213 (Sep12) – 1.25ct ; Q113 (Jun12) – 1.25ct
  • SPH : 2H12 (Aug) – Final =9ct + Special = 8ct ; 1H12 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
  • ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct
  • ComfortDelgro : Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
  • SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct
  • SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)
  • StarHub : FY12 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q

 

 

January 2013

Results announcement

  • 14 Jan 13 : SPH (Q113) – EPS = 6ct
  • 21 Jan 13 (AM) : MIIF (2H12) – DPU = 2.75ct (Final) + 3ct (Special)
  • 21 Jan 13 : M1 (Q412) – EPS = 4.1ct (todate 16.1ct) ; Div = 6.3ct Final + 1.7ct Special (todate 14.6ct)
  • 25 Jan 13 : SingPost (Q313) – EPS = 1.889ct (todate 5.25ct) ; Div = 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
  • 29 Jan 13 : SMRT (Q313) – EPS = 1.7ct (todate 6.3ct)
  • 30 Jan 13 : SATS (Q313) – EPS = 4.2ct (todate 12.5ct)
  • 5 Feb 13 : SIAEC (Q313)
  • 7 Feb 13 : SBSTransit (Q412)
  • 8 Feb 13 : ComfortDelgro (Q412)
  • 14 Feb 13 (AM) : SingTel (Q313)
  • 15 Feb 13 : STEng (Q412)

 

 

STI = 3280.39 (-5.51)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY11 (Dec)

22.65

12.00

$2.700

4.444%

11.92

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY12 (Mar)

7.407

6.25

$1.210

5.165%

16.34

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY12 (Aug)

23

24.0

$4.100

5.854%

17.83

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY12 (Mar)

15.40

26.0

$3.050

8.525%

19.81

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct

SIA Engg

FY12 (Mar)

24.56

21.0

$4.950

4.242%

20.15

Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY11 (Dec)

17.28

15.5

$3.920

3.954%

22.69

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8.5ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY11 (Dec)

11.89

5.90

$1.510

3.907%

12.70

Interim 3.1ct ; Final 2.8ct

ComfortDelGro

FY11 (Dec)

11.27

6.00

$1.930

3.109%

17.13

Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct

SMRT

FY12 (Mar)

7.9

7.45

$1.630

4.571%

20.63

Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY12 (Mar)

25.04

15.8

$3.500

4.514%

13.98

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct

M1

FY12 (Dec)

16.1

14.6

$2.780

5.252%

17.27

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct

StarHub

FY11 (Dec)

18.40

20

$3.900

5.128%

21.20

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

1H – Sep12

A4.1 (Gross)

$1.495

7.070%

$1.300

1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H12 A4.0ct

MIIF

2H – Dec12

5.75

$0.650

8.462%

$0.700

1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special)

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2889) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Jan-13
  • M1 : 2H12 (Dec) – Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct ; 1H12 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct
  • MIIF : 1H12 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 2.75ct (Final) + 3ct (Special) ; Above Yield is Computed without Special Dividend
  • SingTel : 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct
  • SPAus : 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
  • SATSvcs : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
  • StarHub : Q312 (sep) – 5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SMRT : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SIAEC : Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
  • SingPost : Q213 (Sep12) – 1.25ct ; Q113 (Jun12) – 1.25ct
  • SPH : 2H12 (Aug) – Final =9ct + Special = 8ct ; 1H12 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
  • ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct
  • ComfortDelgro : Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
  • SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct
  • SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)
  • StarHub : FY12 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q