July 2012

Results Announcement

  • 13 Jul 12 : SPH (Q312) – EPS 6ct (todate 17ct)
  • 16 Jul 12 : M1 (Q212) – EPS 3.9ct (todate 8.3ct) ; Div 6.6ct
  • 24 Jul 12 : SIAEC (Q113) – EPS 6.38ct
  • 25 Jul 12 : SATS (Q113) – EPS 3.7ct
  • 27 Jul 12 : SMRT (Q113) – EPS 2.4ct
  • 8 Aug 12 (AM) : MIIF
  • 8 Aug 12 : StarHub (Q212)
  • 10 Aug 12 : SBSTransit (Q212)
  • 13 Aug 12 : ComfortDelgro (Q212)
  • 14 Aug 12 (AM) : SingTel (Q112)
  • 14 Aug 12 : STEng (Q212)

 

STI = 3036.40 (+3.60)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY11 (Dec)

22.65

12.00

$2.410

4.979%

10.64

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY12 (Mar)

7.407

6.25

$1.050

5.952%

14.18

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY11 (Aug)

24

24.0

$4.110

5.839%

17.13

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY12 (Mar)

15.40

26.0

$2.580

10.078%

16.75

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 15ct

SIA Engg

FY12 (Mar)

24.56

21.0

$4.080

5.147%

16.61

Interim 6ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY11 (Dec)

17.28

15.5

$3.300

4.697%

19.10

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8.5ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY11 (Dec)

11.89

5.90

$1.540

3.831%

12.95

Interim 3.1ct ; Final 2.8ct

ComfortDelGro

FY11 (Dec)

11.27

6.00

$1.680

3.571%

14.91

Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct

SMRT

FY12 (Mar)

7.9

7.45

$1.630

4.571%

20.63

Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY12 (Mar)

25.04

15.8

$3.580

4.413%

14.30

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct

M1

FY11 (Dec)

18.1

14.5

$2.530

5.731%

13.98

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 7.9ct

StarHub

FY11 (Dec)

18.40

20

$3.840

5.208%

20.87

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

2H – Mar12

A4.0 (Gross)

$1.380

7.593%

A$0.88

2H12 A4.0ct ; 1H12 A4.0ct

MIIF

2H – Dec11

2.75

$0.545

10.092%

$0.820

1H11 2.75ct ; 2H11 2.75ct

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.3098) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Jul-12
  • SPAus : 2H12 (Mar12) – A4ct = A1.333ct (Franked) + A2.159ct (Interest) + A0.508ct (Capital Returns) ; FY12 Guidance = A8.2ct ; 3-for-20 @ S$1.25 (A$1)
  • SATSvcs : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 6ct + Special 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 2H12 (Mar12) – Final 9ct ; 1H12 (Sep11) – Interim 6.8ct ; Includes Exceptional Net Tax Credit S$270M
  • SIAEC : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 15ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 6ct
  • StarHub : Q112 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SMRT : Q412 (Mar12) – Final 5.7ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – Interim 1.75ct
  • SingPost : Q412 (Mar12) – 2.5ct ; Q312 (Dec11) – 1.25ct ; Q212 (Sep11) – 1.25ct ; Q112 (Jun11) – 1.25ct
  • SPH : 1H12 (Feb) – 7ct
  • ST Engg : 1H11 (Jun) – 3ct ; 2H11 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 8.5ct (Special)
  • MIIF : 1H11 (Jun) – 2.75ct ; 2H11 (Dec) – 2.75ct
  • ComfortDelgro : Q411 (Dec) – 3.3ct ; Q211 (Jun) – 2.7ct
  • SBSTransit : Q411 (Dec) – 2.8ct ; Q211 (Jun) – 3.1ct
  • StarHub : FY12 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • M1 : 2H11 (Dec) – Final 7.9ct ; 1H11 (Jun) – Interim 6.6ct

 

SMRT – Phillip

Profits flattered by one-off gains

Company Overview

SMRT is a multi-modal land transport operator with exposures to various modes of operations, including rail, bus & taxi services. A significant part of its profits are generated from its ancillary businesses, such as advertising & rental of commercial spaces.

Revenue growth in line with expectations

Profits flattered by net one-off gain of S$4.5mn

Undeserving of premium valuations with ongoing challenges to the business

• Maintain Sell with target price of S$1.35

What is the news?

Revenue for SMRT continued to trend north, driven mainly by higher ridership on its rail network with the full opening of Circle Line. Despite significantly higher operating expenses, the Group's EBITDA margins improved by 61bp in the quarter. Consequently, profits for SMRT increased by 4.7%y-y. Management highlighted that operational challenges for the Group remain, as profitability is expected to be impacted by higher staff, depreciation and repair & maintenance costs.

How do we view this?

The strong 4.7% increase in net income was flattered by one-off items that were booked in the quarter. After adjusting for the one-off net gains of S$4.5mn booked, we estimate that underlying profits would have declined by 8% in the quarter.

Investment Actions?

With our expectations of higher operating expenses and stagnant average fares for the year, we believe that the difficult financial performance for SMRT would persist. Despite the ongoing challenges to its outlook, the stock continues to trade at an undeserving premium valuation of 18X P/E. We roll forward our valuation basis and maintain our Sell recommendation on SMRT with target price of S$1.35.

SMRT – Phillip

Profits flattered by one-off gains

Company Overview

SMRT is a multi-modal land transport operator with exposures to various modes of operations, including rail, bus & taxi services. A significant part of its profits are generated from its ancillary businesses, such as advertising & rental of commercial spaces.

Revenue growth in line with expectations

Profits flattered by net one-off gain of S$4.5mn

Undeserving of premium valuations with ongoing challenges to the business

• Maintain Sell with target price of S$1.35

What is the news?

Revenue for SMRT continued to trend north, driven mainly by higher ridership on its rail network with the full opening of Circle Line. Despite significantly higher operating expenses, the Group's EBITDA margins improved by 61bp in the quarter. Consequently, profits for SMRT increased by 4.7%y-y. Management highlighted that operational challenges for the Group remain, as profitability is expected to be impacted by higher staff, depreciation and repair & maintenance costs.

How do we view this?

The strong 4.7% increase in net income was flattered by one-off items that were booked in the quarter. After adjusting for the one-off net gains of S$4.5mn booked, we estimate that underlying profits would have declined by 8% in the quarter.

Investment Actions?

With our expectations of higher operating expenses and stagnant average fares for the year, we believe that the difficult financial performance for SMRT would persist. Despite the ongoing challenges to its outlook, the stock continues to trade at an undeserving premium valuation of 18X P/E. We roll forward our valuation basis and maintain our Sell recommendation on SMRT with target price of S$1.35.

RafflesMed – CIMB

Courting Miss Hong Kong

RFMD has submitted its tender for a private hospital development in Hong Kong. While there are no details of tender pricing or capex guidance, we believe the move is a positive one as the healthcare dynamics in Hong Kong now favour new curative healthcare players.

This tender is the most concrete overseas expansionary commitment the group has made since setting up its medical centre in Shanghai in 2010. Our forecasts and target price, pegged at 22x CY13 P/E, reflecting its mid-cycle valuation, are unchanged. Maintain Outperform.

What Happened

RFMD has submitted a tender called by the Hong Kong Government for the development of a private hospital on the Aberdeen Inland Lot No. 458 site. Tender results are likely be released in 4Q12.

What We Think

There are a few factors that favour new curative healthcare players in the Hong Kong market, including frequent long waiting lists for public hospitals causing a spillover to private sector and PRC patients choosing Hong Kong as a destination for their medical needs. All these are expected to drive the demand for private sector medical services in the territory.

When asked, management was understandably tight-lipped about the tender pricing. What we do know is that the site can accommodate a 300-500 bed hospital that will sit on a built-up of between 28,000–46,000 sq meters. Land premium is roughly 30% of the weightage. Good evidence-based medical practice, professional development, quality assurance as well as consistency and transparency in charging professional fees are also criteria being evaluated. Should the group be successful in this tender, capex requirements will only come in by 2Q13 and are to be paid progressively over three years.

What You Should Do

Stay invested. With readjustments in its inpatients billings, we see ample room for RFMD to catch up with rates, albeit gradually initially (5-10% in 4Q12). This provides scope for the company to close its pricing gap with its competitors. RFMD is still a laggard play in this sector; it has a strong balance sheet among peers in the region. ROEs have also been strong. Maintain Outperform.

RafflesMed – CIMB

Courting Miss Hong Kong

RFMD has submitted its tender for a private hospital development in Hong Kong. While there are no details of tender pricing or capex guidance, we believe the move is a positive one as the healthcare dynamics in Hong Kong now favour new curative healthcare players.

This tender is the most concrete overseas expansionary commitment the group has made since setting up its medical centre in Shanghai in 2010. Our forecasts and target price, pegged at 22x CY13 P/E, reflecting its mid-cycle valuation, are unchanged. Maintain Outperform.

What Happened

RFMD has submitted a tender called by the Hong Kong Government for the development of a private hospital on the Aberdeen Inland Lot No. 458 site. Tender results are likely be released in 4Q12.

What We Think

There are a few factors that favour new curative healthcare players in the Hong Kong market, including frequent long waiting lists for public hospitals causing a spillover to private sector and PRC patients choosing Hong Kong as a destination for their medical needs. All these are expected to drive the demand for private sector medical services in the territory.

When asked, management was understandably tight-lipped about the tender pricing. What we do know is that the site can accommodate a 300-500 bed hospital that will sit on a built-up of between 28,000–46,000 sq meters. Land premium is roughly 30% of the weightage. Good evidence-based medical practice, professional development, quality assurance as well as consistency and transparency in charging professional fees are also criteria being evaluated. Should the group be successful in this tender, capex requirements will only come in by 2Q13 and are to be paid progressively over three years.

What You Should Do

Stay invested. With readjustments in its inpatients billings, we see ample room for RFMD to catch up with rates, albeit gradually initially (5-10% in 4Q12). This provides scope for the company to close its pricing gap with its competitors. RFMD is still a laggard play in this sector; it has a strong balance sheet among peers in the region. ROEs have also been strong. Maintain Outperform.