SingPost – BT
Bankers caution against race for high-yield perps
Read fine print and study their risks, they urge investors
There is a new share fever in town, the sale of high yield perpetual shares. Even at $250,000 a pop, they’re selling like hot cakes, and some eager investors may forget there are some risks.
Attracted to the higher yields, investors may overlook the fine print such as the right to redeem the securities as early as after five years and coupon deferral, said some bankers.
‘Globally there’s a massive hunt for yields, (but) people are quite confused about the concept of perps because they’re not so widely traded,’ said Arjuna Mahendran, the head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank.
‘If in the meantime you need money, you’re at the mercy of the bank which quotes the spread,’ he added.
The sale of Genting Singapore perps which ends today is said to have attracted over $2 billion in orders for a benchmark issue typically believed to be a minimum of $500 million. The perps is guided to pay 5.375 per cent coupon.
Some private bankers have hiked up the cost for Genting to 0.75 per cent from the usual 0.20 per cent due to the strong demand, complained one investor.
Last Friday SingPost perps paying 4.25 per cent received overwhelming subscription, with orders hitting almost $2.5 billion or seven times more than the $350 million issuance.
‘That was an absolute blowout,’ said Clifford Lee, DBS head of fixed income.
‘Out of 10 clients, only one got it,’ said one relationship manager who had some pretty upset customers.
SingPost’s attraction was because it ticked all the right boxes such as ties to the government. SingPost is 26.01 per cent owned by Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited.
‘Deals that have done well in the market tend to have one or more of the following attributes,’ said Todd Schubert, head of credit research, Bank of Singapore. ‘Strong brand name such as SingPost and Genting, a new issuer that provides portfolio diversification, perceived ties or importance to the Singapore government and bondholder friendly structures,’ he said.
Right now there are probably many investors who do not read the fine print. Perhaps they should, especially if they think perps are bonds which they are not.
There are a number of commonalities such as a non-call 5-year structure with a coupon step-up in year 10, said Mr Schubert.
However, there are a number of subtle differences with respect to coupon change, coupon deferrals, call options etc that make each structure unique, he said.
‘At Bank of Singapore, our criteria for analysing perpetual securities is even more stringent than that of other bonds, as they rank only ahead of equity in the capital structure,’ he said.
But Anurag Mahesh, head of global investment and key client solutions, Asia Pacific, at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, said investors do understand that the higher yield comes at a risk.
And for many non-Singapore investors, the perps are popular because they offer exposure to the Singapore dollar, he added.
SingPost – BT
Bankers caution against race for high-yield perps
Read fine print and study their risks, they urge investors
There is a new share fever in town, the sale of high yield perpetual shares. Even at $250,000 a pop, they’re selling like hot cakes, and some eager investors may forget there are some risks.
Attracted to the higher yields, investors may overlook the fine print such as the right to redeem the securities as early as after five years and coupon deferral, said some bankers.
‘Globally there’s a massive hunt for yields, (but) people are quite confused about the concept of perps because they’re not so widely traded,’ said Arjuna Mahendran, the head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank.
‘If in the meantime you need money, you’re at the mercy of the bank which quotes the spread,’ he added.
The sale of Genting Singapore perps which ends today is said to have attracted over $2 billion in orders for a benchmark issue typically believed to be a minimum of $500 million. The perps is guided to pay 5.375 per cent coupon.
Some private bankers have hiked up the cost for Genting to 0.75 per cent from the usual 0.20 per cent due to the strong demand, complained one investor.
Last Friday SingPost perps paying 4.25 per cent received overwhelming subscription, with orders hitting almost $2.5 billion or seven times more than the $350 million issuance.
‘That was an absolute blowout,’ said Clifford Lee, DBS head of fixed income.
‘Out of 10 clients, only one got it,’ said one relationship manager who had some pretty upset customers.
SingPost’s attraction was because it ticked all the right boxes such as ties to the government. SingPost is 26.01 per cent owned by Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited.
‘Deals that have done well in the market tend to have one or more of the following attributes,’ said Todd Schubert, head of credit research, Bank of Singapore. ‘Strong brand name such as SingPost and Genting, a new issuer that provides portfolio diversification, perceived ties or importance to the Singapore government and bondholder friendly structures,’ he said.
Right now there are probably many investors who do not read the fine print. Perhaps they should, especially if they think perps are bonds which they are not.
There are a number of commonalities such as a non-call 5-year structure with a coupon step-up in year 10, said Mr Schubert.
However, there are a number of subtle differences with respect to coupon change, coupon deferrals, call options etc that make each structure unique, he said.
‘At Bank of Singapore, our criteria for analysing perpetual securities is even more stringent than that of other bonds, as they rank only ahead of equity in the capital structure,’ he said.
But Anurag Mahesh, head of global investment and key client solutions, Asia Pacific, at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, said investors do understand that the higher yield comes at a risk.
And for many non-Singapore investors, the perps are popular because they offer exposure to the Singapore dollar, he added.
HLFin – DMG
Higher QoQ earnings on more provision writeback
HLF reported 4Q11 net profit of S$24.7m, down 5.6% YoY, but up 11% QoQ. FY11 net profit of S$99.8m was above our S$93m forecast, due to more provisions writeback. HLF recorded a 5.2% QoQ expansion in loans, building on 3Q11’s 6.3%, which is a positive. We cut FY12 and FY13 net profit forecasts by 9% and 5% respectively to factor in weaker net interest income – management indicated that pricing for all categories of lending products continued to come under pressure. With concerns on slowing Singapore economic growth, we do not see any catalyst driving HLF share price up. Our target price of S$2.42 is pegged to 0.65x book. Maintain NEUTRAL.
Loans YoY expansion much stronger than deposit growth. Loans rose 5.2% QoQ or 18.7% YoY to S$7.45b. Deposits rose 6.0% QoQ or 8.1% YoY to S$7.76b. Although 4Q11 deposits’ growth is a positive versus 3Q11’s 2% sequential contraction, the stronger YoY loan growth versus deposits has translated to a higher loan deposit ratio. This could cap loan growth going forward.
Pre-provisioning operating profit contracted 1.5% QoQ. However, PBT was up 12% QoQ as provisions reversals doubled sequentially to S$7.1m.
Target P/B is lower than historical average. HLF trades at a historical average P/B of 0.95x. With the uncertain economic environment, we do not see any catalyst driving its share price to that level. Our target P/B of 0.65x is a premium to the 2009 global financial crisis low of 0.5x.
HLFin – DMG
Higher QoQ earnings on more provision writeback
HLF reported 4Q11 net profit of S$24.7m, down 5.6% YoY, but up 11% QoQ. FY11 net profit of S$99.8m was above our S$93m forecast, due to more provisions writeback. HLF recorded a 5.2% QoQ expansion in loans, building on 3Q11’s 6.3%, which is a positive. We cut FY12 and FY13 net profit forecasts by 9% and 5% respectively to factor in weaker net interest income – management indicated that pricing for all categories of lending products continued to come under pressure. With concerns on slowing Singapore economic growth, we do not see any catalyst driving HLF share price up. Our target price of S$2.42 is pegged to 0.65x book. Maintain NEUTRAL.
Loans YoY expansion much stronger than deposit growth. Loans rose 5.2% QoQ or 18.7% YoY to S$7.45b. Deposits rose 6.0% QoQ or 8.1% YoY to S$7.76b. Although 4Q11 deposits’ growth is a positive versus 3Q11’s 2% sequential contraction, the stronger YoY loan growth versus deposits has translated to a higher loan deposit ratio. This could cap loan growth going forward.
Pre-provisioning operating profit contracted 1.5% QoQ. However, PBT was up 12% QoQ as provisions reversals doubled sequentially to S$7.1m.
Target P/B is lower than historical average. HLF trades at a historical average P/B of 0.95x. With the uncertain economic environment, we do not see any catalyst driving its share price to that level. Our target P/B of 0.65x is a premium to the 2009 global financial crisis low of 0.5x.
RafflesMed – BT
RMG eyes revenue boost from expansion
Plans to launch new specialist centre and extend hospital
RAFFLES Medical Group (RMG) is eyeing a 50 per cent bump in revenue by 2014 from its expansion plans to launch a new specialist medical centre and extend Raffles Hospital.
‘We are hopeful that our topline would grow by 50 per cent due to a combination of the expansion of the hospital and the start-up of the Raffles Specialist Centre in Orchard, which would in total increase our floor area from 300,000 square feet to 450,000 square feet,’ said executive chairman Loo Choon Yong.
In addition to extending Raffles Hospital by some 102,400 sq ft, the group is also launching a specialist medical centre at Bideford Road. The medical centre is slated to come onstream in 1H2013 while expansion of the hospital is on track for completion by 2014.
At the same time, increasing the number of specialists is also expected to contribute to the topline.
This year, RMG plans to boost staff count by 200, recruiting specialists in fields such as oncology, neurology, fertility, orthopaedics and ophthalmology.
Commenting on how its growth plans would impact the bottom line, Dr Loo said both the bigger hospital and new medical centre would allow for greater efficiency, given more bed capacity and increased use of facilities.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Reuters yesterday, Dr Loo said that the group may raise its average service charge in Singapore by 4-5 per cent this year to keep up with anticipated salary increments.
The government is currently reviewing the salary structure of healthcare staff as it seeks to attract more people to work in the public health sector. This may require the private sector to follow suit to retain talent.
According to RMG, its fees for surgical cases work out 25-50 per cent cheaper versus comparable private tertiary hospitals, giving it some flexibility to work with when nudging up fees. The group has not yet decided exactly when this year the increase would kick in, it told BT.
Dr Loo also said in the Reuters interview that its loss-making medical centre in Shanghai, which was launched in 2010, is likely to swing into the black next year as costs stabilise and patient numbers grow, and that RMG is looking into the possibility of building a hospital in China.
For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2011, RMG posted an 11.3 per cent rise in net profit to $50.4 million thanks in part to a higher patient load and a wider range of medical specialties. Revenue rose 14.1 per cent to $272.8 million, spurred by growth in both hospital services and healthcare services.