Dividends – BT
Dividends finally get their due respect
DIVIDENDS were once regarded with disdain in this part of the world. Investors bought stocks for capital gains, accepting higher risk as part of the bargain. Dividends were seen as boring, so companies pandered to this and put all their focus on growth.
Attitudes, however, have changed over the past few years and, if anything, the recent earnings season – while highlighting higher profitability – has also put the spotlight on the dividend policies of Singapore-listed companies.
One survey of just under 100 companies that reported FY2010 results last month, for instance, found that over 40 will be paying out more dividends than a year earlier while just over 20 will be paying out less in dividends. The remaining firms will be keeping their dividends constant.
Overall, the dividend yield of the Singapore market this year is seen at around 3 per cent, with banks and telcos seen as strong dividend payers.
Of course, this can be put down to the boost enjoyed by listed firms as the Singapore economy rebounded last year, while healthier cash positions enabled debt levels to be pared down. Still, it should not detract from the shift in underlying attitudes.
In the past, companies would have ploughed all the spare cash into expansion. There appears now to be a bigger commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
And in the backdrop, the establishment of a large Reit (real estate investment trust) and business trust sector – in which entities pay out all or most of their income to unit holders on a recurring basis – also contributed to the payout culture.
Widespread in region
Singapore companies are not alone in the region in embracing the dividend culture. Indeed, they would have been left behind if they had not done so. Australia and Hong Kong are both seen as markets with a sizeable cluster of dividend-paying stocks. Even in developing markets like China and India, and smaller ones like Thailand and Indonesia, dividend payout ratios have been rising.
Last year, in fact, several global fund managers set up emerging market dividend funds to tap the growth of the dividend culture, with Asia a prime focus. This dividend-focused approach targets companies with sustainable and growing dividends while providing downside protection in the event of market setbacks.
This would have seemed unusual just a decade ago, but no longer. Recent studies have noted that capital returns have rarely been a dominant component of total return nor have they a strong relation to economic performance. One particular study into the historical make-up of total return for Asia from 1994 to 2008 showed that dividend return was the largest component of total return, and has a much stronger correlation to economic growth.
The growth of the dividend culture in Singapore and the region is a welcome development. Dividends are not just about putting cash in the pockets of shareholders. A dividend culture also has the potential to shape investor behaviour.
To put it simply, dividends encourage investors to buy and hold, which is a shift from the trading mentality of many retail players. Indeed, one reason put forward for the lacklustre IPO market so far this year is that many investors now would rather seek the safety of dividend-paying stocks than take a punt on new listings.
Good corporate governance
And there’s a corporate governance angle too that’s not always highlighted.
As some have argued, investing in companies paying high dividends goes beyond shareholder returns. Companies that have high payout ratios also tend to be companies with good corporate governance standards. This is because the distribution of excess cash as dividends helps to limit the potential for mismanagement – or, worse, exploitation by insiders.
It also prevents situations where excessive cash leads to wasteful or unproductive investments; in the 1990s many companies were focused on expansion with little regard for capital discipline, and many destroyed shareholder value.
A strong dividend policy, as a corollary to short-term share price gains, helps align the interests of managers and shareholders for the longer term, and signals a company’s commitment to look after shareholders’ interests.
Much has been said about the limitations of the Singapore market: the lack of depth, poor liquidity, and weak companies. But the development of a dividend culture surely ranks among the positives.
Indeed, if investors here had used dividends as a stock selection screening tool, they probably would have sidestepped some of the troubled stocks that have surfaced over the last few years.
Dividends – BT
Dividends finally get their due respect
DIVIDENDS were once regarded with disdain in this part of the world. Investors bought stocks for capital gains, accepting higher risk as part of the bargain. Dividends were seen as boring, so companies pandered to this and put all their focus on growth.
Attitudes, however, have changed over the past few years and, if anything, the recent earnings season – while highlighting higher profitability – has also put the spotlight on the dividend policies of Singapore-listed companies.
One survey of just under 100 companies that reported FY2010 results last month, for instance, found that over 40 will be paying out more dividends than a year earlier while just over 20 will be paying out less in dividends. The remaining firms will be keeping their dividends constant.
Overall, the dividend yield of the Singapore market this year is seen at around 3 per cent, with banks and telcos seen as strong dividend payers.
Of course, this can be put down to the boost enjoyed by listed firms as the Singapore economy rebounded last year, while healthier cash positions enabled debt levels to be pared down. Still, it should not detract from the shift in underlying attitudes.
In the past, companies would have ploughed all the spare cash into expansion. There appears now to be a bigger commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
And in the backdrop, the establishment of a large Reit (real estate investment trust) and business trust sector – in which entities pay out all or most of their income to unit holders on a recurring basis – also contributed to the payout culture.
Widespread in region
Singapore companies are not alone in the region in embracing the dividend culture. Indeed, they would have been left behind if they had not done so. Australia and Hong Kong are both seen as markets with a sizeable cluster of dividend-paying stocks. Even in developing markets like China and India, and smaller ones like Thailand and Indonesia, dividend payout ratios have been rising.
Last year, in fact, several global fund managers set up emerging market dividend funds to tap the growth of the dividend culture, with Asia a prime focus. This dividend-focused approach targets companies with sustainable and growing dividends while providing downside protection in the event of market setbacks.
This would have seemed unusual just a decade ago, but no longer. Recent studies have noted that capital returns have rarely been a dominant component of total return nor have they a strong relation to economic performance. One particular study into the historical make-up of total return for Asia from 1994 to 2008 showed that dividend return was the largest component of total return, and has a much stronger correlation to economic growth.
The growth of the dividend culture in Singapore and the region is a welcome development. Dividends are not just about putting cash in the pockets of shareholders. A dividend culture also has the potential to shape investor behaviour.
To put it simply, dividends encourage investors to buy and hold, which is a shift from the trading mentality of many retail players. Indeed, one reason put forward for the lacklustre IPO market so far this year is that many investors now would rather seek the safety of dividend-paying stocks than take a punt on new listings.
Good corporate governance
And there’s a corporate governance angle too that’s not always highlighted.
As some have argued, investing in companies paying high dividends goes beyond shareholder returns. Companies that have high payout ratios also tend to be companies with good corporate governance standards. This is because the distribution of excess cash as dividends helps to limit the potential for mismanagement – or, worse, exploitation by insiders.
It also prevents situations where excessive cash leads to wasteful or unproductive investments; in the 1990s many companies were focused on expansion with little regard for capital discipline, and many destroyed shareholder value.
A strong dividend policy, as a corollary to short-term share price gains, helps align the interests of managers and shareholders for the longer term, and signals a company’s commitment to look after shareholders’ interests.
Much has been said about the limitations of the Singapore market: the lack of depth, poor liquidity, and weak companies. But the development of a dividend culture surely ranks among the positives.
Indeed, if investors here had used dividends as a stock selection screening tool, they probably would have sidestepped some of the troubled stocks that have surfaced over the last few years.
HLFin – DMG
Trading below book value
HLF is trading at an attractively low P/B. We spoke with management recently. Management said their efforts to drive loans have led to a 4Q10 sequential loan increase. Though FY10 net interest margin is under pressure (due to competitive interest rates), we believe further squeeze is quite unlikely – we forecast continued soft SIBOR for at least the next six months, which should help to keep funding costs low. Further FY11 loan growth would drive preprovisioning earnings. Maintain BUY on HLF as valuation remains attractive. Our target price of S$3.61 is pegged to 1.0x 2011 book (7-yr historical P/B is 1.0x).
Loan growth momentum persisted in 4Q10. After the 2.9% 3Q10 QoQ loan expansion, loans grew a further 2.9% in 4Q10. For FY10, loans expanded 2.3%. Management highlighted the challenging car hire-purchase market (with vehicle units sold falling 40% in 2010), and this segment accounts for almost 25% of loan book. However, HLF saw more activities in the SME and housing loan segments.
We forecast 2011 loan growth of 8%. The car hire-purchase portfolio amortises with an average timeframe of 30 months. With unexciting COE numbers, car unit sales – and hence car loans, is seen to be lacklustre. However, the recent rise in car prices will offer some cushioning effect. HLF continues to provide housing mortgages, loans to developers and SMEs.
Expect growth in FY11 pre-provisioning profit. With the benign credit environment, HLF was able to write-back provisions in FY10. We have conservatively assumed that HLF will need to make provisions in FY11 to cater for loan growth. Consequently, our forecast of a growth in FY11 pre-provisioning operating profit will be followed by a decline in FY11 pre-tax profit.
HLFin – DMG
Trading below book value
HLF is trading at an attractively low P/B. We spoke with management recently. Management said their efforts to drive loans have led to a 4Q10 sequential loan increase. Though FY10 net interest margin is under pressure (due to competitive interest rates), we believe further squeeze is quite unlikely – we forecast continued soft SIBOR for at least the next six months, which should help to keep funding costs low. Further FY11 loan growth would drive preprovisioning earnings. Maintain BUY on HLF as valuation remains attractive. Our target price of S$3.61 is pegged to 1.0x 2011 book (7-yr historical P/B is 1.0x).
Loan growth momentum persisted in 4Q10. After the 2.9% 3Q10 QoQ loan expansion, loans grew a further 2.9% in 4Q10. For FY10, loans expanded 2.3%. Management highlighted the challenging car hire-purchase market (with vehicle units sold falling 40% in 2010), and this segment accounts for almost 25% of loan book. However, HLF saw more activities in the SME and housing loan segments.
We forecast 2011 loan growth of 8%. The car hire-purchase portfolio amortises with an average timeframe of 30 months. With unexciting COE numbers, car unit sales – and hence car loans, is seen to be lacklustre. However, the recent rise in car prices will offer some cushioning effect. HLF continues to provide housing mortgages, loans to developers and SMEs.
Expect growth in FY11 pre-provisioning profit. With the benign credit environment, HLF was able to write-back provisions in FY10. We have conservatively assumed that HLF will need to make provisions in FY11 to cater for loan growth. Consequently, our forecast of a growth in FY11 pre-provisioning operating profit will be followed by a decline in FY11 pre-tax profit.
SingTel – Lim and Tan
• Sing Tel has priced its US$600 mln 10.5-year note issue to give a yield of 4.5%. The issue was more than 3 times subscribed.
• Investors will have a “little” hard time whether to swap shares for the bonds, given the stock yields about 4.9% (based on unchanged final of 8 cents for ye Mar 2011, plus the 6.8 cents interim already paid).
• Our main grouse with sing Tel remains the board / management’s reluctance to commit to a dividend policy, however understanding investors may be that a good part of Sing Tel’s group profit represents
associates contributions, which do not necessarily translate to dividends / cash flow to Sing Tel.