SingPost – Kim Eng
Still waiting for fresh catalysts
Event
• SingPost did as well as can be expected. In other words, we expected its mail business to reflect the current economic strength, and it did. But the logistics and retail businesses did not do so well profit‐wise due to lower margin components coming to the fore. If this is the best it can do despite the economy firing on all cyclinders, then it needs to move faster on its regionalisation and diversification plans. Perhaps the recent management restructuring will speed things along. Meanwhile, HOLD for the yield of 5+%.
Our View
• Net profit of $43.8m was flat YoY. Underlying net profit, excluding one‐off items such as the $2.9m amortisation of deferred gain on IP rights and benefits from the Jobs Credit scheme which ended in June 2010, was lower at $40.9m, though still 5% higher from a year ago. The usual quarterly dividend of 1.25 cents was also declared.
• Mail business did the best on stronger domestic, international and hybrid mail volume, with EBIT growth outpacing revenue growth. However, Logistics margins were affected by lower margin activities such as transhipment as opposed to higher margin customized logistics, while Retail profit fell on lower agency and retail activities.
• Perhaps sensing investors’ impatience with its long‐promised regionalisation and diversification, SingPost recently appointed two CEOs. An ex‐McKinsey consultant will now accelerate its expansion in the region and diversify into non‐postal businesses. Incumbent CEO Ng Hin Lee will lead postal services and strategic acquisitions.
Action & Recommendation
We maintain our HOLD recommendation, mainly for the yield of 5%. Our target price has been raised to $1.29 as we roll over to FY12, still on 15x target PE.
January 2011
Results Announcement
- 14 Jan 11 : SPH (Q111) – EPS 6ct
- 19 Jan 11 : M1 (Q410) – EPS 4.2ct (todate 17.5ct) ; Div 7.7ct (Final) + 3.5ct (Special) (todate 17.5ct)
- 28 Jan 11 : SMRT (Q311) – EPS 2.8ct (todate 8.4ct)
- 28 Jan 11 : SingPost (Q311) – EPS 2.281ct (todate 6.445ct) ; Div 1.25ct (todate 3.75ct)
- 11 Feb 11 : StarHub (Q410)
- 14 Feb 11 : ComfortDelgro (Q410)
- 14 Feb 11 : SBSTransit (Q410)
STI = 3179.72 (-49.97)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY10 (Aug) |
31 |
27 |
$3.97 |
6.801% |
12.81 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 11ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY10 (Mar) |
8.563 |
6.25 |
$1.18 |
5.297% |
13.78 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Dec-10 |
— |
3.5 |
$3.23 |
2.167% |
— |
Dec10 3.5ct ; Jun10 3ct |
|
SATS |
FY10 (Mar) |
16.7 |
13 |
$2.78 |
4.676% |
16.65 |
Final 8ct ; Interim 5ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY09 (Dec) |
14.78 |
13.3 |
$3.24 |
4.099% |
21.92 |
Final 4ct + 6.28ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY09 (Dec) |
17.75 |
8.8 |
$2.11 |
4.171% |
11.89 |
Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY09 (Dec) |
10.52 |
5.3 |
$1.58 |
3.354% |
15.02 |
Interim 2.63ct ; Final 2.67ct |
|
SMRT |
FY10 (Mar) |
10.7 |
8.5 |
$2.04 |
4.167% |
19.07 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY10 (Mar) |
24.55 |
14.2 |
$3.10 |
4.581% |
12.63 |
Interim 6.2ct ; Final 8ct |
|
M1 |
FY10 (Dec) |
17.5 |
17.5 |
$2.45 |
7.143% |
14.00 |
Interim 6.3ct ; Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct |
|
StarHub |
FY09 (Dec) |
18.68 |
19 |
$2.55 |
7.451% |
13.65 |
Q1 4.5ct ; Q2 4.5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H10 (Mar-10) |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.130 |
9.012% |
A$0.91 |
2H10 A4.0ct ; 1H10 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
1H – Jun10 |
1.50 |
$0.585 |
5.128% |
$0.830 |
2H09 1.5ct ; 1H09 1.5ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.2729) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 31-Jan-11
- SingPost : Q311 (Dec10) – 1.25ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – 1.25ct ; Q111 (Jun10) – 1.25ct
- M1 : 2H10 (Dec) – Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct ; 1H10 (Jun) – Interim 6.3ct
- SingTel : 1H11 (Sep10) – Interim 6.8ct
- SPAus : 1H11 (Sep10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7772ct (after tax) ; 2H10 (Mar10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7739ct (after tax)
- StarHub : Q310 (Sep) – 5ct ; Q210 (Jun) – 5ct ; Q110 (Mar) – 5ct
- SATSvcs : Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 5ct
- SMRT : Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 2H10 (Aug) – 20ct ; 1H10 (Feb) – 7ct
- SBSTransit : Q210 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q210 (Jun) – 2.7ct
- MIIF : 1H10 (Jun) – 1.5ct
- ST Engg : Q210 (Jun) – 3ct
- StarHub : FY10 Div Policy 20ct ie. 5ct/Q
M1 – Kim Eng
Stay invested
What's New
• Special dividends could become the normal order of business for M1 as capital needs stabilise. Following the declaration of a special DPS of $0.03, management has promised to regularly review the company's capital structure. Depending on comfort level viz gearing, additional payouts could range from $0.03 to $0.21 a share. Beyond this, 2011 prospects are also becoming more concrete and exciting.
Our View
• Although M1 did not declare more than $0.03/share in special dividends in FY10, we expect to see more capital management initiatives given management's promise to "regularly review" its capital structure. Given its healthy net debt/EBITDA of 1.0x, stable working capital requirements and consistent capex, we continue to put M1 on our list of capital management candidates.
• By our estimates, M1 will have the flexibility to pay a further S$0.03/share in special dividends by the end of FY11 even if it maintains its net debt/EBITDA ratio at a rather conservative 1.0x. This will rise to $0.21/share if it gears up to a more aggressive 1.5x, still a level that management has, in the past, expressed it is comfortable gearing up to.
• Business‐wise, M1's traction is gathering strength. It expects full year earnings growth, with a key driver being mobile data (est. 30% penetration vs 150% for mobile voice) due to the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones and in particular, tablet computers. It will also enhance its fixed service offerings and more aggressively target the underserved SME market.
Action & Recommendation
We believe this is just the beginning of an exciting year for M1 and investors should stay invested. The share price may see some consolidation given the recent outperformance, but at 13x PE and 6% yield, we reckon the best is yet to be.
ComfortDelgro – DMG
New taxi licence award in Chengdu, China
ComfortDelGro (CD) becomes the 2nd largest taxi operator in Chengdu with latest taxi licence award. CD’s wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi Co has been awarded 800 new taxi licences by the Chengdu Municipal Government. Based on the assumption that the 800 new Sagitar taxis will be added gradually throughout 2011, we raised our FY11F-FY12F PATMI by 0.4%-1.0% respectively. Our TP is also raised marginally from S$1.85 to S$1.87 based on discounted cash flow valuation (WACC: 8.8%; Terminal growth rate: 1.3%). Maintain BUY.
First foray into Chengdu taxi market began in 2004. CD’s taxi operations in Chengdu began in 2004 when it entered into a joint venture with a local entrepreneur to operate 90 taxis for RMB26m. Subsequently, CD augmented its taxi fleet size to 250 in Chengdu via taxi licence award in 2007 and acquisitions of existing licences. Following the latest licence win, CD’s taxi fleet size in Chengdu will be augmented to 1,050 by end 2011. Assuming a Sagitar taxi costs around RMB1205-RMB170k, we think that the incremental capex for the taxi fleet size expansion is ~S$20m-S$30m. The new licences will be renewed annually at RMB10k/licence/year. Separately, we estimate the 800 new Sagitar taxi additions will add S$1m-S$3m to CD’s bottomline a year.
Latest win proves CD is well-positioned for overseas growth. We continue to believe that CD enjoys better overseas growth opportunities over SMRT given its sizeable presence in both emerging and developed markets like China (9M10: 12% EBIT), Australia (9M10: 16% EBIT), and UK/Ireland (9M10: 13% EBIT). Despite the greater growth potential, CD is currently trading at a cheaper valuation of 14x FY11F PATMI vis-à-vis SMRT’s 18x FY11F PATMI. Hence, we reiterate our preference for CD over SMRT within the land transport sector. Key risks of CD are i) adverse forex movements, ii) sharp rise in oil price, and iii) liberalisation of bus sector in Singapore which may undermine CD’s dominant position.
ComfortDelgro – DMG
New taxi licence award in Chengdu, China
ComfortDelGro (CD) becomes the 2nd largest taxi operator in Chengdu with latest taxi licence award. CD’s wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu ComfortDelGro Taxi Co has been awarded 800 new taxi licences by the Chengdu Municipal Government. Based on the assumption that the 800 new Sagitar taxis will be added gradually throughout 2011, we raised our FY11F-FY12F PATMI by 0.4%-1.0% respectively. Our TP is also raised marginally from S$1.85 to S$1.87 based on discounted cash flow valuation (WACC: 8.8%; Terminal growth rate: 1.3%). Maintain BUY.
First foray into Chengdu taxi market began in 2004. CD’s taxi operations in Chengdu began in 2004 when it entered into a joint venture with a local entrepreneur to operate 90 taxis for RMB26m. Subsequently, CD augmented its taxi fleet size to 250 in Chengdu via taxi licence award in 2007 and acquisitions of existing licences. Following the latest licence win, CD’s taxi fleet size in Chengdu will be augmented to 1,050 by end 2011. Assuming a Sagitar taxi costs around RMB1205-RMB170k, we think that the incremental capex for the taxi fleet size expansion is ~S$20m-S$30m. The new licences will be renewed annually at RMB10k/licence/year. Separately, we estimate the 800 new Sagitar taxi additions will add S$1m-S$3m to CD’s bottomline a year.
Latest win proves CD is well-positioned for overseas growth. We continue to believe that CD enjoys better overseas growth opportunities over SMRT given its sizeable presence in both emerging and developed markets like China (9M10: 12% EBIT), Australia (9M10: 16% EBIT), and UK/Ireland (9M10: 13% EBIT). Despite the greater growth potential, CD is currently trading at a cheaper valuation of 14x FY11F PATMI vis-à-vis SMRT’s 18x FY11F PATMI. Hence, we reiterate our preference for CD over SMRT within the land transport sector. Key risks of CD are i) adverse forex movements, ii) sharp rise in oil price, and iii) liberalisation of bus sector in Singapore which may undermine CD’s dominant position.