SPH – BT
SPH profit for Q2 up 30.2% at $113.3m
H1 earnings soar 61.2% to $258m on operating revenue of $672.7m
SINGAPORE Press Holdings has posted a 30.2 per cent increase in second-quarter net profit, as print ad revenue rebounded and property performed strongly.
Net profit for the three months ended Feb 28, 2010, came to $113.3 million – up from $87 million a year back – as operating revenue rose 11 per cent to $318.7 million.
Recurring profit jumped 35.8 per cent to $127.5 million, as revenue from core newspaper and magazine operations grew 8.8 per cent year on year to $222.6 million. A rebound in display and recruitment ad revenue offset a dip in circulation revenue.
Higher revenue from Sky@eleven and higher rental income from Paragon lifted revenue from property operations 18 per cent year on year to $85.2 million.
Net investment income totalled $3.5 million – a turnaround from a $0.1 million loss for Q2 2009.
Q2’s showing meant that first-half net profit surged 61.2 per cent to $258 million and operating revenue climbed 7.2 per cent to $672.7 million.
Chief executive Alan Chan said: ‘The positive trend in our print advertising sales has continued into Q2, and has enabled us to deliver a strong set of first-half results.’
SPH has declared an interim cash dividend of seven cents a share, to be paid on May 21.
Its shares slid a cent to close at $3.93 yesterday.
The group’s net asset value per share was $1.29 as at Feb 28, 2010, up from $1.28 as at Aug 31, 2009. Earnings per share rose two cents to seven cents for Q2 2010, from five cents for Q209.
Operating expenses eased 1.1 per cent year on year to $193.5 million. Lower newsprint costs, factory costs and other overheads offset higher property development and staff costs.
SPH expects a gradual increase in newsprint prices in the coming months, due to cost pressures and tighter market conditions.
Mr Chan said that the group would ‘continue to monitor cost levels closely while at the same time devote resources to optimise and grow its core businesses and invest selectively in adjacent businesses’.
SPH – BT
SPH invests $45m to upgrade printing assets
Project will raise company’s productivity and better meet advertisers’ demands
SINGAPORE Press Holdings (SPH) is investing $45 million to rejuvenate its printing assets, a move which will raise the company’s productivity significantly and better meet advertisers’ demands.
SPH chairman Tony Tan, who launched the upgrading and renewal project at the company’s Print Centre in Jurong yesterday, said the project is a reaffirmation that print is still a core business of the media group.
SPH, which owns a stable of newspapers and magazines including The Business Times, has in recent years ventured into new media with online news, search and interactive portals. ‘But while we continue to venture into other arenas, our core business is in print and our newspapers and magazines still bring in the bulk of our revenue and profits,’ said Dr Tan.
The $45 million investment in the two-and-a-half-year project, which started in April last year, is in new press control systems, improved colour capacity for existing computerised printing presses, and digitised computer-to-plate systems to replace old film-based ones. All new systems are expected to be fully operational by the second half of next year.
Anthony Cheng, executive vice-president of production, said that vendors and partners for this project were chosen after a ‘rigorous and thorough evaluation process’.
ABB Industry and Harland Simon won the contracts to replace press control systems for the GOSS Colorliner presses at the Print Centre, which were installed in 1996.
These presses usually have a life span of 30 years but swift computer advancements have meant that the control systems need replacing or risk becoming technologically obsolete. SPH expects this replacement to keep the presses running for another 15 years.
Upgrading of the Colorliner presses’ colour capacity will be handled by the original manufacturer, GOSS International. With the upgrade, the presses will be able to handle 40 back-to-back coloured broadsheet pages, up from the current 24, in a single run. This will allow newspapers printed on these presses, such as Lianhe Zaobao, The New Paper and The Business Times, to better meet advertising demands, SPH said.
Agfa Graphics will undertake the third major upgrade, which will do away with film-based plate making, replacing this with a digitised computer-to-plate one instead.
SPH said with the success of the digitised system that was introduced in the UNISET press in the Media Centre as a pilot project, it expects the full roll-out at the Print Centre to yield greater automation and higher productivity.
SPH – CIMB
No surprises; interim dividend as expected
• Maintain Outperform; in line. 2Q10 net profit was S$113.3m (+30.2% yoy), accounting for 22% of our full-year estimate. 1H10 net profit grew 61.2% yoy to S$258.0m on revenue growth of 7.2% yoy to S$672.7m. 1H10 results came in 2% below our forecasts and were in line with consensus. SPH declared an interim dividend of 7 cts/share, in line with our forecast. Our earnings estimates remain intact with our sum-of-the-parts target price unchanged at S$4.50. We maintain Outperform on the back of an improving outlook.
• 2Q10 operating revenue grew 11% yoy to S$318.7.0m. Within our expectations, print revenue rose 13.3% yoy to S$165.4m. Display and recruitment ad revenue rebounded, while circulation revenue was down by S$1.6m. Property revenue rose 18.0% yoy to S$85.2m, boosted by Sky@eleven revenue and increase in rental income from Paragon. Materials, consumables and broadcasting costs were lower 28.1% yoy due to the 38.4% drop in newsprint costs. As expected, staff costs went up 20.1% due to higher bonus provision.
• Ad demand continues to improve. The Saturday edition of The Straits Times averaged 254 pages in March, up 28% yoy and up 12% mom. Ad demand is coming mainly from property developers, telecommunications and FMCGs. We believe the uptrend is sustainable, driven by a robust property market and an improving job market.
• Outlook. SPH continues to expect newsprint prices to rise in line with the economic recovery though we are not overly concerned as prices have been locked in till Dec 10 and remain way below peak prices. Sky@eleven is on track to obtain its temporary occupation permit in the coming months while Paragon’s occupancy continues to be high. Clementi Mall is targeted to start operations in 1H11.
M1 – UOBKH
Mobile And Agile
Triple-play riding on NGNBN. M1 will enhance customer retention by bundling multiple services. Traditionally a mobile and IDD service provider, M1 will expand into fixed voice and fixed broadband services with minimal capex when Next Gen Nationwide Broadband Network (NGNBN) is launched by mid-year. M1 budgeted capex of only S$10m for capacity to serve 100,000 fixed broadband customers and we expect 20,000 and 40,000 new subscribers to sign up in 2H10 and 2011 respectively. M1 could also deliver niche educational content through an IPTV platform, riding on infrastructure provided by NGNBN.
Growth in mobile data enhances ARPU. M1 benefits most from the proliferation of smartphones and growth in mobile data as mobile services accounted for 79.4% of its total service revenue in 4Q09, the highest among the three local telcos. The proportion of post-paid subscribers using smartphones has expanded to one-third over the past six months driven by the launch of Apple iPhone in Dec 09. Mobile service plans bundled with data are priced at about S$10 above those without data. Thus, we expect post-paid ARPU to increase by 4.1% over the next two years.
Rewarding shareholders with special dividend. We expect M1 to declare a special dividend of S$0.17/share when it announces 1H10 results in early August. Together with forecast interim dividend of 6.2 cents and final dividend of 6.4 cents, total dividend for 2010 is estimated at 29.6 cents. Management sees optimal net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x. We expect net debt/EBITDA to reach 1.1x in Dec 10, which leaves room for potential capital reduction exercise in 2011 or 2012. Initiate coverage with a BUY. Valuation is attractive with 2010 EV/EBITDA at 6.3x, compared to 10.3x for SingTel. We estimate 2010 free cash flow at S$0.21/share, representing free cash flow yield of 10.0%. The stock provides rich dividend yields of 14.2% for 2010 and 7.2% for 2011. Our DCF valuation for M1 is S$2.84 (required rate of return: 8.5%, terminal growth: 0%).
M1 – OCBC
Looking forward to NBN
Likely decent start to 2010. M1 Ltd will kick off the reporting season for the telcos and we expect to see a pretty decent set of 1Q10 results on 16 Apr 2010, driven by the rapidly recovering economy in Singapore; a MAS poll of 20 economists pegs the average GDP growth forecast at 9.5% for 1Q10. Mobile subscriber numbers have also been pretty encouraging, with total subscribers (2G+3G) up 0.1% from Dec to 6.865m in Feb, as the number of 3G subscribers continued to grow. We suspect one reason for this increase is probably due to the ongoing demand for the Apple iPhone 3GS, which M1 had started distributing in Dec 2009.
Outlook for mobile market remains buoyant. Although the mobile phone penetration rate has already hit 137.6% in Feb 2010, we believe that the proliferation of mobile Internet devices with standalone 3G SIM cards – like the Apple iPad 3G version – will continue to drive growth in the mobile market. We believe that M1’s recent capex in building up its own backhaul capabilities will enable it to garner a bigger share of this growing mobile data market. For the overall market, industry watcher Research and Markets predicts that Singapore’s mobile subscriber base will hit 7.750m in 2014, up 13% from 2009.
Looking forward to NBN. Besides the still buoyant mobile market, M1 is also looking towards the NBN (National Broadband Network) initiative for growth. More specifically, access to the previously restricted (or totally unavailable) home and business broadband markets will offer the highest growth opportunities for M1 and also allow the telco to become a “full service” provider. Already we see that its move to buy over Qala Singapore in Sep 2009 has started to bear fruits – we note that M1 has already started marketing its business broadband packages, with prices from as low as S$105.93/month for a 4Mbps Dynamic ADSL.
Maintain BUY with S$2.28 fair value. For the upcoming 1Q10 results, we expect M1 to post operating revenue of S$211.9m, up 13.7% YoY (but down 2.0% QoQ) and a net profit of S$39.8m, down 4.9% YoY (but up 7.1% QoQ). In any case, we intend to hold off adjusting our FY10 estimates until after the results. We also maintain our BUY rating as M1 could potentially benefit the most when NBN kicks off from mid-2010.