STEng – OSK DMG

Meeting Expectations

ST Engineering (STE)’s 2Q13 PATMI edged up 3.3% y-o-y to SGD148m, within our expectations. Its orderbook of SGD12.7bn supports our 6.7% earnings growth forecast for FY13. We continue to like STE for its solid fundamentals, with a 31% ROE and a 4.2% yield. Maintain BUY, with a DCF-derived TP of SGD4.70. The company will distribute an interim dividend of three cents a share on 13 Sept 2013.

2Q13 results within expectations. STE’s 2Q13 results were in line, with 2Q13 and 1H13 PATMI accounting for 24% and 46% of our and consensus’ FY13 estimates respectively. Given that 1H has historically been weaker than 2H, Management expects higher revenue and PBT in 2H13 compared to 1H13.

Broad-based growth. 2Q13 PATMI grew 3.3% y-o-y and 10.3% q-o-q to SGD148, while PBT margins remained stable, declining by a marginal 0.1ppt y-o-y to 11.9%. STE recorded growth across all its business segments on a PBT level. Its key aerospace segment’s PBT growth was muted (+0.9% y-o-y), partly due to a SGD7m disposal of property gain in 2Q12.

Orderbook remains robust. STE reported an orderbook of SGD12.7bn as of end 2Q13 (vs SGD13.0bn in end-March 2013), supported by SGD430m of new contract wins by its aerospace arm, which include an exclusive component maintenance-by-the-hour (MBH) contract with Spring Airlines Japan, as well as a 5-year multi-crew pilot licence (MPL) training contract with Qatar Airways. Its electronics division secured SGD207m of new contracts including three rail contracts from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) as well as Satcoms solutions & communications systems projects. The company expects to deliver SGD2.8bn of the orderbook in 2H13.

Maintain BUY on strong profit matrix. STE displays solid fundamentals with its: i) 31% ROE, ii) 10-year EPS CAGR of 5%, iii) net cash, and iv) 4.2% yield. The stock currently trades at a 21.5x FY13 P/E, 12% below its historical 24.5x peak.

STEng – OSK DMG

Meeting Expectations

ST Engineering (STE)’s 2Q13 PATMI edged up 3.3% y-o-y to SGD148m, within our expectations. Its orderbook of SGD12.7bn supports our 6.7% earnings growth forecast for FY13. We continue to like STE for its solid fundamentals, with a 31% ROE and a 4.2% yield. Maintain BUY, with a DCF-derived TP of SGD4.70. The company will distribute an interim dividend of three cents a share on 13 Sept 2013.

2Q13 results within expectations. STE’s 2Q13 results were in line, with 2Q13 and 1H13 PATMI accounting for 24% and 46% of our and consensus’ FY13 estimates respectively. Given that 1H has historically been weaker than 2H, Management expects higher revenue and PBT in 2H13 compared to 1H13.

Broad-based growth. 2Q13 PATMI grew 3.3% y-o-y and 10.3% q-o-q to SGD148, while PBT margins remained stable, declining by a marginal 0.1ppt y-o-y to 11.9%. STE recorded growth across all its business segments on a PBT level. Its key aerospace segment’s PBT growth was muted (+0.9% y-o-y), partly due to a SGD7m disposal of property gain in 2Q12.

Orderbook remains robust. STE reported an orderbook of SGD12.7bn as of end 2Q13 (vs SGD13.0bn in end-March 2013), supported by SGD430m of new contract wins by its aerospace arm, which include an exclusive component maintenance-by-the-hour (MBH) contract with Spring Airlines Japan, as well as a 5-year multi-crew pilot licence (MPL) training contract with Qatar Airways. Its electronics division secured SGD207m of new contracts including three rail contracts from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) as well as Satcoms solutions & communications systems projects. The company expects to deliver SGD2.8bn of the orderbook in 2H13.

Maintain BUY on strong profit matrix. STE displays solid fundamentals with its: i) 31% ROE, ii) 10-year EPS CAGR of 5%, iii) net cash, and iv) 4.2% yield. The stock currently trades at a 21.5x FY13 P/E, 12% below its historical 24.5x peak.

SingPost – DBSV

Regional E-commerce player in the making

  • 1Q13 underlying profit of S$36.2m (-0.9% y-o-y, +13.8% q-o-q) was slightly below estimate due to forex losses; declared S$1.25 Scts interim DPS, in line
  • Transforming into a major E-commerce player in Asia, where it can ride on last mile delivery network of postal peers in various countries
  • Maintain BUY with a revised TP of S$1.50; has S$146m net cash for more acquisitions

1Q13 underlying profit of S$36.2m (-0.9% y-o-y, +13.8% q-o-q) was slightly below estimate due to forex losses; declared S$1.25 Scts interim DPS, in line

Highlights

Revenue grew 33% y-o-y. Excluding contribution from new subsidiaries, revenue grew 6.5%. Overall operating profit edged down 1% to S$49m as it develops the new businesses. Mail segment healthy. This segment booked S$36.8m operating profit, up 6.3% y-o-y after consolidating Novation Solutions. The Logistics segment booked S$3.3m operating profit, up 36%. But operating profit for Retail & E-commerce fell 35% to S$2.4m due to development activities. Trimmed FY14F/15F earnings by 3%. Singpost booked S$2m forex losses from its international mail & logistics businesses. It will manage forex losses more pro-actively going forward but it cannot avoid that completely.

Our View

Singpost is positioned to ride on E-commerce growth in Asia. The company is pursuing a Low-Cost-Carrier (LCC) strategy rather than speed to compete with the likes of DHL and FedEx Singpost enjoys a niche due to its access to last mile delivery network of postal peers in various countries. It has a strong balance sheet with S$146m net cash, and acquires a business only if it is earnings-accretive and provides new capabilities or geographies. Singpost has spent S$179m on acquisitions over the last few years.

Recommendation

Singpost offers mid-single digit growth plus ~5% yield. New acquisitions may give fillip to growth. Our revised S$1.50 TP (DCF: WACC 6%, terminal growth 0%) implies 20% total potential returns.

July 2013

Results Announcement

  • 15 Jul 13 : SPH (Q313) – EPS = 12ct (todate 22ct)
  • 16 Jul 13 : M1 (Q213) – EPS = 4.3ct (todate 8.7ct) ; Div = 6.8ct
  • 22 Jul 13 : SIAEC (Q114) – EPS 6.22ct
  • 25 Jul 13 : SATS (Q114) – EPS 4.1ct
  • 30 Jul 13 : SMRT (Q114) – EPS 1.1ct
  • 2 Aug 13 : SingPost (Q114)
  • 6 Aug 13 : HLFin (Q213)
  • 13 Aug 13 : SBSTransit (Q114)
  • 13 Aug 13 : STEng (Q213)
  • 14 Aug 13 : ComfortDelgro (Q114)

 

STI = 3221.93 (+8.48)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY12 (Dec)

17.60

12.00

$2.680

4.478%

15.23

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY13 (Mar)

6.435

6.25

$1.315

4.753%

20.44

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY12 (Aug)

23

24.0

$4.390

5.467%

19.09

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY13 (Mar)

16.60

15.0

$3.320

4.518%

20.00

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct

SIA Engg

FY13 (Mar)

24.51

22.0

$4.870

4.517%

19.87

Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY12 (Dec)

18.76

16.8

$4.280

3.925%

22.81

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 9.8ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY12 (Dec)

6.01

3.00

$1.390

2.158%

23.13

Interim 1.35ct ; Final 1.65ct

ComfortDelGro

FY12 (Dec)

11.89

6.40

$2.000

3.200%

16.82

Interim 2.9ct ; Final 3.5ct

SMRT

FY13 (Mar)

5.5

2.50

$1.415

1.767%

25.73

Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY13 (Mar)

22.02

16.8

$3.930

4.275%

17.85

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY12 (Dec)

16.1

14.6

$3.230

4.520%

20.06

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct

StarHub

FY12 (Dec)

20.93

20

$4.400

4.545%

21.02

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

2H – Mar13

A4.1 (Gross)

$1.390

6.741%

A$0.91

1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct

MIIF

FY13 – Guidance

1.90

$0.163

11.656%

?

1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special)

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1427) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Jul-13
  • M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
  • MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
  • SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
  • SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
  • SATSvcs : 2H13 (Mar13) – Final 6ct + Special 4ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 2H13 (Mar) – Final 10ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct ; Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
  • SIAEC : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 15ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
  • StarHub : Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SingPost : Q413 (Mar13) – 2.5ct ; Q313 (Dec12) – 1.25ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – 1.25ct ; Q113 (Jun12) – 1.25ct
  • SMRT : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 1.0ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SPH : 1H13 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
  • HLFin : 1H12 (Jun) – 4ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 8ct (Final)
  • ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 9.8ct (Special)
  • ComfortDelgro : Q412 (Dec) – 3.5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
  • StarHub : FY13 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct ; Q412 (Dec) – 1.65ct

 

 

July 2013

Results Announcement

  • 15 Jul 13 : SPH (Q313) – EPS = 12ct (todate 22ct)
  • 16 Jul 13 : M1 (Q213) – EPS = 4.3ct (todate 8.7ct) ; Div = 6.8ct
  • 22 Jul 13 : SIAEC (Q114) – EPS 6.22ct
  • 25 Jul 13 : SATS (Q114) – EPS 4.1ct
  • 30 Jul 13 : SMRT (Q114) – EPS 1.1ct
  • 2 Aug 13 : SingPost (Q114)
  • 6 Aug 13 : HLFin (Q213)
  • 13 Aug 13 : SBSTransit (Q114)
  • 13 Aug 13 : STEng (Q213)
  • 14 Aug 13 : ComfortDelgro (Q114)

 

STI = 3221.93 (+8.48)

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

HL Fin

FY12 (Dec)

17.60

12.00

$2.680

4.478%

15.23

Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct

SingPost

FY13 (Mar)

6.435

6.25

$1.315

4.753%

20.44

Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct

SPH

FY12 (Aug)

23

24.0

$4.390

5.467%

19.09

Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + Special 8ct

Aviation Services

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SATS

FY13 (Mar)

16.60

15.0

$3.320

4.518%

20.00

Interim 5ct ; Final 6ct + Special 4ct

SIA Engg

FY13 (Mar)

24.51

22.0

$4.870

4.517%

19.87

Interim 7ct ; Final 15ct

ST Engg

FY12 (Dec)

18.76

16.8

$4.280

3.925%

22.81

Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 9.8ct

Note : SATS Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring

Transport

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SBSTransit

FY12 (Dec)

6.01

3.00

$1.390

2.158%

23.13

Interim 1.35ct ; Final 1.65ct

ComfortDelGro

FY12 (Dec)

11.89

6.40

$2.000

3.200%

16.82

Interim 2.9ct ; Final 3.5ct

SMRT

FY13 (Mar)

5.5

2.50

$1.415

1.767%

25.73

Interim 1.5ct ; Final 1.0ct

TELCO

Stock

Period

EPS cts

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

PE

Div Breakdown

SingTel

FY13 (Mar)

22.02

16.8

$3.930

4.275%

17.85

Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct

M1

FY12 (Dec)

16.1

14.6

$3.230

4.520%

20.06

Interim 6.6ct ; Final 6.3ct + Special 1.7ct

StarHub

FY12 (Dec)

20.93

20

$4.400

4.545%

21.02

Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct

Funds / Infrastructure

Stock

Period

DPS cts

Mkt

Yield

NAV

Div Breakdown

SPAus

2H – Mar13

A4.1 (Gross)

$1.390

6.741%

A$0.91

1H13 A4.1ct ; 2H13 A4.1ct

MIIF

FY13 – Guidance

1.90

$0.163

11.656%

?

1H12 2.75ct ; 2H12 2.75ct + 3ct (Special)

* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1427) fm Yahoo

NOTES :

  • Mkt Price is as on 31-Jul-13
  • M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
  • MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
  • SPAus : 2H13 (Mar13) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.649ct (Interest) + A0.084ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H13 (Sep12) – A4.1ct = A1.367ct (Franked) + A2.467ct (Interest) + A0.266ct (Capital Returns)
  • SPAus : FY14 Guidance = A8.36ct
  • SATSvcs : 2H13 (Mar13) – Final 6ct + Special 4ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 5ct
  • SingTel : 2H13 (Mar) – Final 10ct ; 1H13 (Sep12) – Interim 6.8ct ; Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
  • SIAEC : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 15ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 7ct
  • StarHub : Q113 (Mar) – 5ct
  • SingPost : Q413 (Mar13) – 2.5ct ; Q313 (Dec12) – 1.25ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – 1.25ct ; Q113 (Jun12) – 1.25ct
  • SMRT : Q413 (Mar13) – Final 1.0ct ; Q213 (Sep12) – Interim 1.5ct
  • SPH : 1H13 (Feb) – Interim = 7ct
  • HLFin : 1H12 (Jun) – 4ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 8ct (Final)
  • ST Engg : 1H12 (Jun) – 3ct ; 2H12 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 9.8ct (Special)
  • ComfortDelgro : Q412 (Dec) – 3.5ct ; Q212 (Jun) – 2.9ct
  • StarHub : FY13 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
  • SBSTransit : Q212 (Jun) – 1.35ct ; Q412 (Dec) – 1.65ct