Author: kktan

 

TELCOs – OCBC

4QCY11 REVIEW – OVERWEIGHT

Mobile business still resilient

Stable 2012 outlook

Defensive earnings, attractive yields

Decent 4CY11 showing from M1, StarHub

Both M1 and StarHub both met our forecasts at the recent 4QCY11 results, although SingTel slightly disappointed due to its volatile Associates contribution. StarHub declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share, while M1 declared a final dividend of S$0.079/share.

Review of Singapore mobile operations

SingTel continues to dominate with a ~47% post-paid market share, followed by StarHub with ~28% and M1 ~26%. Overall, the post-paid subscriber base grew by 62k QoQ to 4029k, with the bulk coming from SingTel (+44k). And due to limited availability of iPhone 4S handsets, we note that all the three telcos saw increased monthly churn, with M1 having highest (1.4%). Both SingTel and StarHub recorded modest improvements in monthly ARPUs while M1 saw a slight decline. Meanwhile, comments from all the three telcos suggest that a revamp of the generous data package currently for smartphones is likely when they launch LTE later this year.

Stable 2012 outlook

Going forward, all the three telcos expect their Singapore operations to remain stable or show modest growth, buoyed by continued customer additions and increasing mobile data usage. But with more smartphone users likely to use data-based means to communicate, we expect EBITDA margins to remain flat or even trend slightly lower. Nevertheless, the telcos have kept their dividend payout guidance, thus keeping their yields attractive.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT

The telco shares have underperformed the broader market YTD, whereas the STI has surged some 12.6%. But with markets likely to remain volatile, we believe that the telcos’ defensive earnings and attractive yields offer a safe harbour for the less risk-adverse investors. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

TELCOs – OCBC

4QCY11 REVIEW – OVERWEIGHT

Mobile business still resilient

Stable 2012 outlook

Defensive earnings, attractive yields

Decent 4CY11 showing from M1, StarHub

Both M1 and StarHub both met our forecasts at the recent 4QCY11 results, although SingTel slightly disappointed due to its volatile Associates contribution. StarHub declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share, while M1 declared a final dividend of S$0.079/share.

Review of Singapore mobile operations

SingTel continues to dominate with a ~47% post-paid market share, followed by StarHub with ~28% and M1 ~26%. Overall, the post-paid subscriber base grew by 62k QoQ to 4029k, with the bulk coming from SingTel (+44k). And due to limited availability of iPhone 4S handsets, we note that all the three telcos saw increased monthly churn, with M1 having highest (1.4%). Both SingTel and StarHub recorded modest improvements in monthly ARPUs while M1 saw a slight decline. Meanwhile, comments from all the three telcos suggest that a revamp of the generous data package currently for smartphones is likely when they launch LTE later this year.

Stable 2012 outlook

Going forward, all the three telcos expect their Singapore operations to remain stable or show modest growth, buoyed by continued customer additions and increasing mobile data usage. But with more smartphone users likely to use data-based means to communicate, we expect EBITDA margins to remain flat or even trend slightly lower. Nevertheless, the telcos have kept their dividend payout guidance, thus keeping their yields attractive.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT

The telco shares have underperformed the broader market YTD, whereas the STI has surged some 12.6%. But with markets likely to remain volatile, we believe that the telcos’ defensive earnings and attractive yields offer a safe harbour for the less risk-adverse investors. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

SingPost – BT

Bankers caution against race for high-yield perps

Read fine print and study their risks, they urge investors

There is a new share fever in town, the sale of high yield perpetual shares. Even at $250,000 a pop, they’re selling like hot cakes, and some eager investors may forget there are some risks.

Attracted to the higher yields, investors may overlook the fine print such as the right to redeem the securities as early as after five years and coupon deferral, said some bankers.

‘Globally there’s a massive hunt for yields, (but) people are quite confused about the concept of perps because they’re not so widely traded,’ said Arjuna Mahendran, the head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank.

‘If in the meantime you need money, you’re at the mercy of the bank which quotes the spread,’ he added.

The sale of Genting Singapore perps which ends today is said to have attracted over $2 billion in orders for a benchmark issue typically believed to be a minimum of $500 million. The perps is guided to pay 5.375 per cent coupon.

Some private bankers have hiked up the cost for Genting to 0.75 per cent from the usual 0.20 per cent due to the strong demand, complained one investor.

Last Friday SingPost perps paying 4.25 per cent received overwhelming subscription, with orders hitting almost $2.5 billion or seven times more than the $350 million issuance.

‘That was an absolute blowout,’ said Clifford Lee, DBS head of fixed income.

‘Out of 10 clients, only one got it,’ said one relationship manager who had some pretty upset customers.

SingPost’s attraction was because it ticked all the right boxes such as ties to the government. SingPost is 26.01 per cent owned by Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited.

‘Deals that have done well in the market tend to have one or more of the following attributes,’ said Todd Schubert, head of credit research, Bank of Singapore. ‘Strong brand name such as SingPost and Genting, a new issuer that provides portfolio diversification, perceived ties or importance to the Singapore government and bondholder friendly structures,’ he said.

Right now there are probably many investors who do not read the fine print. Perhaps they should, especially if they think perps are bonds which they are not.

There are a number of commonalities such as a non-call 5-year structure with a coupon step-up in year 10, said Mr Schubert.

However, there are a number of subtle differences with respect to coupon change, coupon deferrals, call options etc that make each structure unique, he said.

‘At Bank of Singapore, our criteria for analysing perpetual securities is even more stringent than that of other bonds, as they rank only ahead of equity in the capital structure,’ he said.

But Anurag Mahesh, head of global investment and key client solutions, Asia Pacific, at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, said investors do understand that the higher yield comes at a risk.

And for many non-Singapore investors, the perps are popular because they offer exposure to the Singapore dollar, he added.

SingPost – BT

Bankers caution against race for high-yield perps

Read fine print and study their risks, they urge investors

There is a new share fever in town, the sale of high yield perpetual shares. Even at $250,000 a pop, they’re selling like hot cakes, and some eager investors may forget there are some risks.

Attracted to the higher yields, investors may overlook the fine print such as the right to redeem the securities as early as after five years and coupon deferral, said some bankers.

‘Globally there’s a massive hunt for yields, (but) people are quite confused about the concept of perps because they’re not so widely traded,’ said Arjuna Mahendran, the head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank.

‘If in the meantime you need money, you’re at the mercy of the bank which quotes the spread,’ he added.

The sale of Genting Singapore perps which ends today is said to have attracted over $2 billion in orders for a benchmark issue typically believed to be a minimum of $500 million. The perps is guided to pay 5.375 per cent coupon.

Some private bankers have hiked up the cost for Genting to 0.75 per cent from the usual 0.20 per cent due to the strong demand, complained one investor.

Last Friday SingPost perps paying 4.25 per cent received overwhelming subscription, with orders hitting almost $2.5 billion or seven times more than the $350 million issuance.

‘That was an absolute blowout,’ said Clifford Lee, DBS head of fixed income.

‘Out of 10 clients, only one got it,’ said one relationship manager who had some pretty upset customers.

SingPost’s attraction was because it ticked all the right boxes such as ties to the government. SingPost is 26.01 per cent owned by Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited.

‘Deals that have done well in the market tend to have one or more of the following attributes,’ said Todd Schubert, head of credit research, Bank of Singapore. ‘Strong brand name such as SingPost and Genting, a new issuer that provides portfolio diversification, perceived ties or importance to the Singapore government and bondholder friendly structures,’ he said.

Right now there are probably many investors who do not read the fine print. Perhaps they should, especially if they think perps are bonds which they are not.

There are a number of commonalities such as a non-call 5-year structure with a coupon step-up in year 10, said Mr Schubert.

However, there are a number of subtle differences with respect to coupon change, coupon deferrals, call options etc that make each structure unique, he said.

‘At Bank of Singapore, our criteria for analysing perpetual securities is even more stringent than that of other bonds, as they rank only ahead of equity in the capital structure,’ he said.

But Anurag Mahesh, head of global investment and key client solutions, Asia Pacific, at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, said investors do understand that the higher yield comes at a risk.

And for many non-Singapore investors, the perps are popular because they offer exposure to the Singapore dollar, he added.

HLFin – DMG

Higher QoQ earnings on more provision writeback

HLF reported 4Q11 net profit of S$24.7m, down 5.6% YoY, but up 11% QoQ. FY11 net profit of S$99.8m was above our S$93m forecast, due to more provisions writeback. HLF recorded a 5.2% QoQ expansion in loans, building on 3Q11’s 6.3%, which is a positive. We cut FY12 and FY13 net profit forecasts by 9% and 5% respectively to factor in weaker net interest income – management indicated that pricing for all categories of lending products continued to come under pressure. With concerns on slowing Singapore economic growth, we do not see any catalyst driving HLF share price up. Our target price of S$2.42 is pegged to 0.65x book. Maintain NEUTRAL.

Loans YoY expansion much stronger than deposit growth. Loans rose 5.2% QoQ or 18.7% YoY to S$7.45b. Deposits rose 6.0% QoQ or 8.1% YoY to S$7.76b. Although 4Q11 deposits’ growth is a positive versus 3Q11’s 2% sequential contraction, the stronger YoY loan growth versus deposits has translated to a higher loan deposit ratio. This could cap loan growth going forward.

Pre-provisioning operating profit contracted 1.5% QoQ. However, PBT was up 12% QoQ as provisions reversals doubled sequentially to S$7.1m.

Target P/B is lower than historical average. HLF trades at a historical average P/B of 0.95x. With the uncertain economic environment, we do not see any catalyst driving its share price to that level. Our target P/B of 0.65x is a premium to the 2009 global financial crisis low of 0.5x.