Author: kktan
June 2011
STI = 3079.74 (+28.95)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPH |
FY10 (Aug) |
31 |
27 |
$3.85 |
7.013% |
12.42 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 9ct + 11ct (Special) |
|
SingPost |
FY11 (Mar) |
8.369 |
6.25 |
$1.16 |
5.388% |
13.86 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
STI ETF |
Dec-10 |
— |
3.5 |
$3.15 |
2.222% |
— |
Dec10 3.5ct ; Jun10 3ct |
|
SATS |
FY11 (Mar) |
17.4 |
17 |
$2.56 |
6.641% |
14.71 |
Final 6ct + Special 6ct ; Interim 5ct |
|
ST Engg |
FY10 (Dec) |
16.21 |
14.55 |
$2.98 |
4.883% |
18.38 |
Final 4ct + 7.55ct (Special) ; Interim 3ct |
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY10 (Dec) |
17.63 |
8.80 |
$1.88 |
4.681% |
10.66 |
Interim 4.5ct ; Final 4.3ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY10 (Dec) |
10.95 |
5.50 |
$1.42 |
3.873% |
12.97 |
Interim 2.7ct ; Final 2.8ct |
|
SMRT |
FY11 (Mar) |
10.6 |
8.5 |
$1.92 |
4.427% |
18.11 |
Interim 1.75ct ; Final 6.75ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY11 (Mar) |
24.02 |
25.8 |
$3.09 |
8.738% |
12.86 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 9ct + Special 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY10 (Dec) |
17.5 |
17.5 |
$2.51 |
6.972% |
14.34 |
Interim 6.3ct ; Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct |
|
StarHub |
FY10 (Dec) |
15.34 |
20 |
$2.76 |
7.246% |
17.99 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Funds / Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H11 (Mar-11) |
A4.0 (Gross) |
$1.190 |
8.801% |
A$0.89 |
2H11 A4.0ct ; 1H11 A4.0ct |
|
MIIF |
2H – Dec10 |
1.50 |
$0.565 |
5.310% |
$0.82 |
2H10 1.5ct ; 1H10 1.5ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.3092) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 29-Jun-11
- SATSvcs : Q411 (Mar11) – Final 6ct + Special 6ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 5ct
- SPAus : 2H11 (Mar11) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7721ct (after tax) ; 1H11 (Sep10) – A4ct (before tax) / A3.7772ct (after tax)
- SingTel : 2H11 (Mar11) – Final 9ct + Special 10ct ; 1H11 (Sep10) – Interim 6.8ct
- StarHub : Q111 (Mar) – 5ct
- SingPost : Q411 (Mar11) – 2.5ct ; Q311 (Dec10) – 1.25ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – 1.25ct ; Q111 (Jun10) – 1.25ct
- SMRT : Q411 (Mar) – Final 6.75ct ; Q211 (Sep10) – Interim 1.75ct
- SPH : 1H11 (Feb) – 7ct
- MIIF : 2H10 (Dec) – 1.5ct ; 1H10 (Jun) – 1.5ct
- ST Engg : 2H10 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 7.55ct (Special) ; 1H10 (Jun) – 3ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q410 (Dec) – 2.8ct ; Q210 (Jun) – 2.7ct
- SBSTransit : Q410 (Dec) – 4.3ct ; Q210 (Jun) – 4.5ct
- StarHub : FY11 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- M1 : 2H10 (Dec) – Final 7.7ct + Special 3.5ct ; 1H10 (Jun) – Interim 6.3ct
SingTel – BT
Optus reaches A$800m pact with NBN Co
Switch to Australia’s upcoming high-speed fibre-optic network
SINGAPORE Telecommunications unit Optus has reached an A$800 million (S$1.1 billion) pact with the Australian authorities to phase out its current Internet infrastructure and switch over to the country’s upcoming high-speed fibre-optic network.
The agreement with state-owned National Broadband Network Company (NBN Co) will see Optus progressively move its hybrid fibre coaxial (HFC) customers over to NBN Co’s new digital superhighway from 2014.
Optus will receive the A$800 million payment in tranches as its customers make the switch, Optus said in a statement yesterday. Optus based its estimate of the total value ‘on a post tax net present value basis’.
NBN Co has been appointed by the Australian government to equip the entire country with ultra-fast broadband connections.
Under its NBN plan, 93 per cent of Australian homes will be wired up with new fibre-optic links, while the remaining 7 per cent is to be connected wirelessly.
According to the Optus statement, the migration over to the NBN is expected to take up to four years.
Optus will continue to offer broadband services via its HFC infrastructure – which relies on a combination of fibre-optics and slower copper wiring to provide broadband and pay-TV access – until the new network is completed and all its subscribers have been migrated.
The move affects only the firm’s fixed-line residential and small business customers.
In tandem with the migration, it will gradually decommission parts of the HFC network that are not used to support its mobile services and enterprise clients, the operator added.
‘This agreement represents a fair deal for Optus. We intend to use the NBN to turbo-charge competition and to deliver the full potential of a 21st century digital life to customers,’ said Optus chief Paul O’Sullivan.
An A$11 billion agreement was also struck between NBN Co and Optus rival Telstra.
Under the contract, the country’s largest fixed-line operator will grant NBN Co access to its copper-based infrastructure for at least 35 years to help with the deployment of its new digital highway.
In addition, Telstra has agreed to progressively switch off its copper-based network and move its services over to the NBN.
SingTel – BT
Optus reaches A$800m pact with NBN Co
Switch to Australia’s upcoming high-speed fibre-optic network
SINGAPORE Telecommunications unit Optus has reached an A$800 million (S$1.1 billion) pact with the Australian authorities to phase out its current Internet infrastructure and switch over to the country’s upcoming high-speed fibre-optic network.
The agreement with state-owned National Broadband Network Company (NBN Co) will see Optus progressively move its hybrid fibre coaxial (HFC) customers over to NBN Co’s new digital superhighway from 2014.
Optus will receive the A$800 million payment in tranches as its customers make the switch, Optus said in a statement yesterday. Optus based its estimate of the total value ‘on a post tax net present value basis’.
NBN Co has been appointed by the Australian government to equip the entire country with ultra-fast broadband connections.
Under its NBN plan, 93 per cent of Australian homes will be wired up with new fibre-optic links, while the remaining 7 per cent is to be connected wirelessly.
According to the Optus statement, the migration over to the NBN is expected to take up to four years.
Optus will continue to offer broadband services via its HFC infrastructure – which relies on a combination of fibre-optics and slower copper wiring to provide broadband and pay-TV access – until the new network is completed and all its subscribers have been migrated.
The move affects only the firm’s fixed-line residential and small business customers.
In tandem with the migration, it will gradually decommission parts of the HFC network that are not used to support its mobile services and enterprise clients, the operator added.
‘This agreement represents a fair deal for Optus. We intend to use the NBN to turbo-charge competition and to deliver the full potential of a 21st century digital life to customers,’ said Optus chief Paul O’Sullivan.
An A$11 billion agreement was also struck between NBN Co and Optus rival Telstra.
Under the contract, the country’s largest fixed-line operator will grant NBN Co access to its copper-based infrastructure for at least 35 years to help with the deployment of its new digital highway.
In addition, Telstra has agreed to progressively switch off its copper-based network and move its services over to the NBN.
ComfortDelgro – Phillip
Buying in at trough valuations
•Current valuation for the stock overly pessimistic
•Defensive stock for uncertain times
•Trading at discount to closest peer
•Forex remains the key risk to our forecasts
•Maintain Buy with target price of S$2.01
A defensive stock for uncertain times
Being a land transport operator, we opine that ComfortDelGro (CDG) has valuable defensive characteristics against a backdrop of uncertain economic environment. Currently, we see relatively little downside risk to our profit growth estimates of 2% for FY11. In fact, the company’s bus business could even see improved profitability resulting from lower oil prices in a global economic slowdown. Majority of the company’s business are non-discretionary and are fairly resilient against a weakening economy.
Undervalued against closest peer
While SMRT and CDG are not directly comparable due to their varied business exposure, their valuation remains the benchmark to the land transport sector on the SGX. CDG currently trades at a discount to its closest peer, SMRT, when compared using the P/E and P/B multiples. Even with our conservative payout ratio assumption of 55% for CDG, the stock offers a fairly similar dividend yield of 4.5% with SMRT.
Key risks lies in forex
With its global exposure, the key risk for CDG lies with potentially lower earnings from weaker forex translation. We estimate that CDG has the highest forex operating profit exposure to AUD (c.20%), GBP (c.13%) & RMB (c.11%) and would be negatively impacted by a depreciation of these currencies against the SGD.
Trading at only 12X T12M EPS
CDG’s share price continues to drift lower in line with the weak market sentiments. We view current market valuations of merely 12X T12M EPS as overly pessimistic, considering the historical +/- 1S.D. P/E range of 13.5 to 16.6X. Even during the GFC, CDG traded below current valuations for less than a fortnight in Oct-Nov 2008.
Valuation. We used a blended valuation model of DCF (COE: 8.2%, terminal g: 1%) and P/E (17X FY11e PATMI) to arrive at our target price of S$2.01. CDG could potentially return 52.1% after incorporating our forecasted dividends of 6.1¢ over the next 12months. Hence, we maintain our Buy call on CDG.
ComfortDelgro – Phillip
Buying in at trough valuations
•Current valuation for the stock overly pessimistic
•Defensive stock for uncertain times
•Trading at discount to closest peer
•Forex remains the key risk to our forecasts
•Maintain Buy with target price of S$2.01
A defensive stock for uncertain times
Being a land transport operator, we opine that ComfortDelGro (CDG) has valuable defensive characteristics against a backdrop of uncertain economic environment. Currently, we see relatively little downside risk to our profit growth estimates of 2% for FY11. In fact, the company’s bus business could even see improved profitability resulting from lower oil prices in a global economic slowdown. Majority of the company’s business are non-discretionary and are fairly resilient against a weakening economy.
Undervalued against closest peer
While SMRT and CDG are not directly comparable due to their varied business exposure, their valuation remains the benchmark to the land transport sector on the SGX. CDG currently trades at a discount to its closest peer, SMRT, when compared using the P/E and P/B multiples. Even with our conservative payout ratio assumption of 55% for CDG, the stock offers a fairly similar dividend yield of 4.5% with SMRT.
Key risks lies in forex
With its global exposure, the key risk for CDG lies with potentially lower earnings from weaker forex translation. We estimate that CDG has the highest forex operating profit exposure to AUD (c.20%), GBP (c.13%) & RMB (c.11%) and would be negatively impacted by a depreciation of these currencies against the SGD.
Trading at only 12X T12M EPS
CDG’s share price continues to drift lower in line with the weak market sentiments. We view current market valuations of merely 12X T12M EPS as overly pessimistic, considering the historical +/- 1S.D. P/E range of 13.5 to 16.6X. Even during the GFC, CDG traded below current valuations for less than a fortnight in Oct-Nov 2008.
Valuation. We used a blended valuation model of DCF (COE: 8.2%, terminal g: 1%) and P/E (17X FY11e PATMI) to arrive at our target price of S$2.01. CDG could potentially return 52.1% after incorporating our forecasted dividends of 6.1¢ over the next 12months. Hence, we maintain our Buy call on CDG.