Author: kktan
June 2014
STI = 3255.67 (-40.18 for the Month)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
Hong Leong Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.730 |
4.396% |
17.22 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SGX |
FY13 (Jun) |
31.43 |
28 |
$6.950 |
4.029% |
22.11 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct |
|
SingPost |
FY14 (Mar) |
6.746 |
6.25 |
$1.735 |
3.602% |
25.72 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY13 (Aug) |
27 |
22.0 |
$4.170 |
5.276% |
15.44 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 7ct |
Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY14 (Mar) |
16.10 |
13.0 |
$3.140 |
4.140% |
19.50 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SIA Engineering |
FY14 (Mar) |
23.88 |
25.0 |
$5.050 |
4.950% |
21.15 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct |
|
ST Engineering |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.800 |
3.947% |
20.29 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.700 |
1.059% |
46.96 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$2.500 |
2.800% |
20.11 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY14 (Mar) |
4.10 |
2.20 |
$1.550 |
1.419% |
37.80 |
Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY14 (Mar) |
22.92 |
16.8 |
$3.850 |
4.364% |
16.80 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.510 |
5.983% |
20.17 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.170 |
4.796% |
19.40 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar14 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.575 |
6.226% |
A$0.90 |
1H14 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1730) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Jun-14
- SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
- SPAus : 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H14 (Sep13) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.396ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.391ct (Capital Returns)
- SingTel : 2H14 (Mar14) – Interim 10ct ; 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 6.8ct
- StarHub : Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
- SIAEC : Q414 (Mar14) – Final 13ct + Special 5ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 7ct
- SMRT : Q414 (Mar14) – Interim 1.2ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 1ct
- HLFin : 2H13 (Dec) – 8ct ; 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- ST Engg : 2H13 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 8ct (Special) ; 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct ; Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
- MIIF : 2H13 (Dec) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q413 (Dec) –4ct ; Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- SBSTransit : Q413 (Dec) – 0.9ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingPost : Q314 (Dec13) – 1.25ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – 1.25ct ; Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- SATSvcs : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 5ct
- SPH : 2H13 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 7ct ; 1H13 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 2H13 (Dec) –0.8ct (Final) ; CXP Return of Capital = 9.7ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
June 2014
STI = 3255.67 (-40.18 for the Month)
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
Hong Leong Fin |
FY13 (Dec) |
15.85 |
12.00 |
$2.730 |
4.396% |
17.22 |
Interim 4ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SGX |
FY13 (Jun) |
31.43 |
28 |
$6.950 |
4.029% |
22.11 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 4ct ; Q4 4ct +12ct |
|
SingPost |
FY14 (Mar) |
6.746 |
6.25 |
$1.735 |
3.602% |
25.72 |
Q1, Q2, Q3 1.25ct ; Q4 2.5ct |
|
SPH |
FY13 (Aug) |
27 |
22.0 |
$4.170 |
5.276% |
15.44 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 8ct + Special 7ct |
Note : SGX Added from May-14 ; Q4 Variable Div Depends on FY EPS
Aviation Services
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SATS |
FY14 (Mar) |
16.10 |
13.0 |
$3.140 |
4.140% |
19.50 |
Interim 5ct ; Final 8ct |
|
SIA Engineering |
FY14 (Mar) |
23.88 |
25.0 |
$5.050 |
4.950% |
21.15 |
Interim 7ct ; Final 13ct + Special 5ct |
|
ST Engineering |
FY13 (Dec) |
18.73 |
15.0 |
$3.800 |
3.947% |
20.29 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct + Special 8ct |
Note : SIAEC Special Div is Observed to be Non-Recurring (Depends on Excess Cash)
Transport
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SBSTransit |
FY13 (Dec) |
3.62 |
1.80 |
$1.700 |
1.059% |
46.96 |
Interim 0.9ct ; Final 0.9ct |
|
ComfortDelGro |
FY13 (Dec) |
12.43 |
7.00 |
$2.500 |
2.800% |
20.11 |
Interim 3ct ; Final 4ct |
|
SMRT |
FY14 (Mar) |
4.10 |
2.20 |
$1.550 |
1.419% |
37.80 |
Interim 1.0ct ; Final 1.2ct |
TELCO
|
Stock |
Period |
EPS cts |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
PE |
Div Breakdown |
|
SingTel |
FY14 (Mar) |
22.92 |
16.8 |
$3.850 |
4.364% |
16.80 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 10ct |
|
M1 |
FY13 (Dec) |
17.4 |
21 |
$3.510 |
5.983% |
20.17 |
Interim 6.8ct ; Final 7.1ct + Special 7.1ct |
|
StarHub |
FY13 (Dec) |
21.50 |
20 |
$4.170 |
4.796% |
19.40 |
Q1 5ct ; Q2 5ct ; Q3 5ct ; Q4 5ct |
Infrastructure
|
Stock |
Period |
DPS cts |
Mkt |
Yield |
NAV |
Div Breakdown |
|
SPAus |
2H – Mar14 |
A4.18 (Gross) |
$1.575 |
6.226% |
A$0.90 |
1H14 A4.18ct ; 2H14 A4.18ct |
* SPAus DPU in A$. Yield is Calculated Using Latest Exchange Rate (1.1730) fm Yahoo
NOTES :
- Mkt Price is as on 30-Jun-14
- SPAus : FY15 Guidance = A8.36ct Gross
- SPAus : 2H14 (Mar14) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.379ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.408ct (Capital Returns) ; 1H14 (Sep13) – A4.18ct = A1.393ct (Franked) + A2.396ct (Interest – Subject to 10% Tax) + A0.391ct (Capital Returns)
- SingTel : 2H14 (Mar14) – Interim 10ct ; 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 6.8ct
- StarHub : Q114 (Mar) – 5ct
- SIAEC : Q414 (Mar14) – Final 13ct + Special 5ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 7ct
- SMRT : Q414 (Mar14) – Interim 1.2ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – Interim 1ct
- HLFin : 2H13 (Dec) – 8ct ; 1H13 (Jun) – 4ct
- ST Engg : 2H13 (Dec) – 4ct (Final) + 8ct (Special) ; 1H13 (Jun) – 3ct ; Dividend Payout Reduced from 90% to 80% for FY13 & Will Be Further Reduced to 75% from FY14
- MIIF : 2H13 (Dec) –0.7ct
- ComfortDelgro : Q413 (Dec) –4ct ; Q213 (Jun) –3ct
- SBSTransit : Q413 (Dec) – 0.9ct ; Q213 (Jun) – 0.9ct
- StarHub : FY14 Div Guidance – 5ct/Q
- SingPost : Q314 (Dec13) – 1.25ct ; Q214 (Sep13) – 1.25ct ; Q114 (Jun13) – 1.25ct
- SATSvcs : 1H14 (Sep13) – Interim 5ct
- SPH : 2H13 (Aug) – Final 8ct + Special 7ct ; 1H13 (Feb) – Interim 7ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 2H13 (Dec) –0.8ct (Final) ; CXP Return of Capital = 9.7ct
- M1 : 1H13 (Jun) – Interim 6.8ct
- MIIF : FY13 Guidance 1H13 (Jun) –0.7ct ; 2H13 (Dec) – 1.2ct (Final) ; APTT IPO Entitlement / 1000 MIIF Shares (Estimate) = 457 APTT Shares or $443.29
- SingTel : Div Policy – 60% to 75% of Underlying Net Profit
Singpost – CIMB
Winner takes all
In a price-competitive industry where the winner takes all, having Alibaba as a strategic partner will ensure that SingPost can scale up and obtain sufficient volumes to become the lowest cost provider. Furthermore, Alibaba’s decision to partner SingPost rather than other regional logistics providers reaffirms the company’s leading position in e-commerce logistics. We maintain our Add rating and DCF-based target price of S$1.86 (WACC 7.1%). The potential key catalysts are rising e-commerce activity and potential M&As.
What Happened
We hosted CFO, Ng Hin Lee and Deputy CFO, Daniel Phua at our 4th Annual Asia Pacific Conference, where they met with over 30 fund managers. Discussions centred on the recently announced collaboration with Alibaba and its M&A plans.
What We Think
Alibaba collaboration will multiply volumes. While details of the JV with Alibaba are yet to be set in stone, SingPost believes that its partnership with Alibaba has the potential to increase shipment volumes by 3-4x. We think these volumes will come gradually rather than overnight as 1) both parties will need to integrate their back-end systems, and 2) SingPost will over time build significant scale across the region, funded by Alibaba’s S$312m investment and its net cash of S$170m.
Potential M&A in Indonesia. SingPost has identified Indonesia as a key market in Southeast Asia where it is lacking sufficient presence. Its subsidiary and key logistics arm, Quantium Solutions, set up a JV in Indonesia this year after the government relaxed laws which previously restricted foreign firms from owning a stake in logistics companies. SingPost sees more room for growth through M&A in Indonesia as the current JV only serves the island of Java and there is also a need to establish delivery networks in other parts of the country. A study by eMarketer forecasts that B2C e-commerce sales in Indonesia will rise by 37% in 2015, just second to China’s 43% and double the global average of 18% (Fig 1), which makes Indonesia a huge untapped market.
What You Should Do
Stay invested. SingPost offers an attractive dividend yield of 4% while also providing potential earnings upside from the collaboration with Alibaba and M&A activity as it expands its regional e-commerce logistics operations.
Singtel – Maybank Kim Eng
Beefing up digital ad capability
- Paying USD359m for Adconian and Kontera to beef up the capability of Amobee in digital advertising market.
- While marginally EBITDA dilutive in the short term, the acquisitions could help Amobee to break even earlier.
- Our BUY case of growth resumption starting FY3/15E stays intact. Maintain BUY with a SOTP TP of SGD4.35.
What’s New
SingTel is pressing ahead into the adjacent digital mobile advertising space with its subsidiary Amobee paying USD359m for Adconian (for USD209m) and Kontera Technologies (USD150m). We expect the acquisitions to be neutral for SingTel. The acquisitions will be EBITDA-dilutive in the short term but they are in line with market expectations given that SingTel had, up until now, only used a fraction of the SGD2b budgeted for Digital Life investments. Maintain BUY, TP SGD4.35.
What’s Our View
This development will transform Amobee from a mere digital advertising company operating on a single channel/screen into an all-rounded mobile-led digital marketing company that provides advertising & data analytics solutions on multiple channels/screens on a real-time basis. This makes sense, as the market has evolved since 2012 when SingTel first bought Amobee.
Notwithstanding the short-term EBITDA dilution, Digital Life investments were never about short term returns. Revenue and profit targets aside, the investee companies’ bigger objective is to enable the operating companies to better compete via more advanced technology.
With the standalone investee companies aiming to break even in 3-5 years, there is a good chance that Adconian and Kontera will accelerate the process for Amobee. Adconian will triple Amobee’s existing salesforce and both sides will have additional services and solutions to sell, while the new capabilities brought by Kontera will open up new markets for Amobee.
Singtel – Maybank Kim Eng
Beefing up digital ad capability
- Paying USD359m for Adconian and Kontera to beef up the capability of Amobee in digital advertising market.
- While marginally EBITDA dilutive in the short term, the acquisitions could help Amobee to break even earlier.
- Our BUY case of growth resumption starting FY3/15E stays intact. Maintain BUY with a SOTP TP of SGD4.35.
What’s New
SingTel is pressing ahead into the adjacent digital mobile advertising space with its subsidiary Amobee paying USD359m for Adconian (for USD209m) and Kontera Technologies (USD150m). We expect the acquisitions to be neutral for SingTel. The acquisitions will be EBITDA-dilutive in the short term but they are in line with market expectations given that SingTel had, up until now, only used a fraction of the SGD2b budgeted for Digital Life investments. Maintain BUY, TP SGD4.35.
What’s Our View
This development will transform Amobee from a mere digital advertising company operating on a single channel/screen into an all-rounded mobile-led digital marketing company that provides advertising & data analytics solutions on multiple channels/screens on a real-time basis. This makes sense, as the market has evolved since 2012 when SingTel first bought Amobee.
Notwithstanding the short-term EBITDA dilution, Digital Life investments were never about short term returns. Revenue and profit targets aside, the investee companies’ bigger objective is to enable the operating companies to better compete via more advanced technology.
With the standalone investee companies aiming to break even in 3-5 years, there is a good chance that Adconian and Kontera will accelerate the process for Amobee. Adconian will triple Amobee’s existing salesforce and both sides will have additional services and solutions to sell, while the new capabilities brought by Kontera will open up new markets for Amobee.