Author: tfwee

 

ComfortDelgro – CIMB

Enlarging its China footprint

Acquisitions in China

Taxi company acquisition: CD announced that it has increased its 55%-owned subsidiary, Beijing Jin Jian Taxi Services Co. Ltd in China has acquired a 100% stake in Jia Run Taxi Co. Ltd, a taxi operator in Beijing which owns 342 taxi licences and vehicles. This will increased CD’s Beijing taxi fleet to 5,421 vehicles and total fleet in China to 13,000 vehicles. The purchase consideration is Rmb76m (S$16.2m), based on the net asset value of the company. The acquisition will be financed by bank borrowings.

Increased shareholding in Chongqing driving school. CD also increased its stake from 80% to 90% in Chongqing ComfortDelgro Driving Training Co. Ltd. This is Chongqing’s largest driver training school offering driving lessons for various classes of vehicles. It has a fleet of 110 vehicles catering to an annual student enrolment of about 10,000. The purchase consideration of the additional 10% stake is Rmb6.4m (S$1.36m), based on the net asset value of the company and will be funded internally. So far, CD has invested Rmb57.6m (S$12.3m) in this venture.

Comments

Positive investments.
We see both investments as positive as we had earlier alluded to a growing number of reasonably-priced M&A opportunities amid an uncertain economic environment. While these investments are small by themselves, they are an incremental increase in terms of an expanding China footprint. In addition, both investments were based on the net asset values with no premium attached, which is by far, the cheapest investments made by CD in the last two years that saw soaring valuations.

Targeting 70% mix of overseas revenue. CD has set itself a target of 70% mix of overseas revenue within the next 5-7 years. Undeniably, there will likely be more M&A projects undertaken by CD as organic growth will only be able to contribute incrementally. As at 30 Sep 08, CD has net cash of S$82m and notwithstanding the current difficult credit situation, it is well positioned to gear up should large and attractive opportunities emerge.

STEng – BT

So much riding on ST Engg’s UK deal

IN TROUBLED economic times like these, a S$340 million deal is good news indeed, even for a big conglomerate used to large contracts.

But to Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE), the significance of its latest UK order goes beyond mere dollars and cents.

Two weeks ago, STE announced that it has won a £150 million (S$321 million) contract to supply over 100 Bronco all-terrain tracked carriers (ATTCs) for deployment by the British armed forces in Afghanistan. The contract was awarded to STE’s land systems arm, Singapore Technologies Kinetics (ST Kinetics), by the UK Ministry of Defence (UK MOD).

The new order makes up less than 5 per cent of STE’s outstanding confirmed orderbook. It has, however, highlighted STE’s defensive qualities at a time of a major economic downturn. As analysts have noted, with its strategic aircraft maintenance and repair (MRO) facilities in the US and its home market, STE should see more third-party work as major airlines and low-cost carriers increase outsourcing to improve profitability. As Singapore’s key defence contractor, STE is positioned to benefit from any increase in defence spending by Singapore and/or its allies – with such spending usually more resilient in an economic crisis than commercial expenditure. An orderbook of S$9.5 billion provides earnings visibility, while dividend yields remain attractive at around 7 per cent.

But the UK win also means much more than all that to the home-grown defence and engineering group. To understand this, just flash back to 2000. That year, STE bid for a high-profile US$4 billion contract to supply its Bionix Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) to the US Army. At the time, the Bionix, which had replaced the US-made M113 as the main IFV of the Singapore army, was seen as the best illustration of STE’s land systems capabilities, and the vehicle was also well regarded in defence circles. While STE played down its chances during the bidding process, there were privately held hopes within the group that it may – against the odds – succeed.

In the event, such hopes were dashed when STE lost the bid. The process was not entirely futile. As STE chief Tan Pheng Hock was to recall in a later interview, the group extracted a lot of value out of the bid, if not in dollar terms. STE obtained a profile in the US that it never had before, and the fact that the US army was even evaluating the Bionix was an acknowledgement of the group’s capabilities. And notwithstanding the lost bid, the US became the biggest market for STE across its business segments, accounting for one third of the group’s revenue.

But still, there was no hiding the disappointment. And losing the US army bid confirmed to some – both within and without the group – that it would be always an uphill task for a non-traditional source like STE to win a major contract from the world’s premier armed forces.

It isn’t difficult then to see why the UK order – a response to an Urgent Operational Requirement (UOR) – is seen as a breakthrough deal for the STE. Partly, it will help erase some of the disappointment felt in 2000. More significantly, it has shown that STE is capable of meeting the requirements of a major army, and one that is currently conducting combat operations. The boost this will give to STE’s reputation and confidence in the marketplace cannot be underestimated.

This makes it vital that the order is successfully executed. While the deal has been won, the success of the contract cannot still be taken for granted. Vehicle deliveries will commence in the third quarter next year, with the majority to be delivered in 2010. The Broncos will reach the UK to undergo transformation to become the armoured, all-terrain vehicle Warthog to replace the existing Viking in Afghanistan. The on-paper specifications of the Warthog are impressive. It will be powered by a 7.2-litre engine producing 350 bhp and will be able to move through water – all while carrying up to 14 troops. When not in water, the highly agile, all-terrain vehicle will be able to climb steep gradients, cling to severe side slopes, tackle vertical obstacles and roll across trenches. Four Warthog variants will be built under the contract – troop carrier, ambulance, command, and repair and recovery.

But as all military watchers know too well, the true test will be how the Warthog performs in operational conditions in Afghanistan. While the main Bronco model is already in peace-time service with the Singapore Armed Forces, this will be the series’ (and perhaps STE’s) first major test under combat conditions.

A successful deployment may open the doors to more orders from the UK and possibly from other nations, given the coalition nature of Allied operations in Afghanistan. If the deployment reveals serious failings, it will take away much of the good that came with winning the contract. STE has its work cut out to make sure, as far as it is possible, that the Warthog shines in the field.

StarHub – Kim Eng

Sector laggard; time to catch up

Key points:

1) Stock has lagged its peers despite unchanged fundamentals
2) Trading near to 52-week low and backed by 9.4% yield
3) Defensive earnings backed by long dated contracts
4) Stock should begin to outperform given attractive valuation.

SFI – BT

Singapore Food Industries shutting down Swissco

Analysts see move to wind up loss-making business as a boost for SFI

SINGAPORE Food Industries (SFI) is shutting down its Ireland-based loss-making business which had raised concerns amongst minority shareholders of its predator, Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS).

SFI said that it had asked the High Court of Dublin to wind up operations of its loss-making convenience food business, Swissco. Swissco is 100 per cent owned by SFI’s Cresset Ltd.

The business has been bleeding to the tune of almost $8 million, raising concerns amongst shareholders of SATS.

The Changi Airport ground operator and Singapore Airline subsidiary recently announced a $335 million takeover of Temasek Holdings’ 69 per cent stake in Singapore’s largest integrated food specialist. The value of the deal is likely to balloon to $509 million following an expected general offer.

But some minority shareholders of SATS had expressed reservations about some of SFI’s businesses which the former would be ingesting. And Swissco was a key concern.

SFI had hoped to sell the business, thus avoiding the costs of closing it down, but found little interest in the market.

Analysts reckon that the removal of Swissco will boost SFI’s balance sheet and profitability significantly.

‘While valuations of 15x earnings and 3x book are not cheap, SFI’s core earnings are depressed by one-time charges and overseas subsidiary losses,’ Kim Eng noted in a report.

‘After adjusting for losses at subsidiaries to be sold, we estimate SFI’s FY2007 profits at 34 per cent higher than reported, which would reduce SATS’ buyout valuation to 11x earnings, below SATS’ current 12.5x P/E.’

SPH – CIMB

Yields still attractive

• We believe that SPH’s core media earnings are less at risk from the recession than many Asian media stocks, since SPH controls more than 90% of newspaper advertising in Singapore. This mitigates the worst effects of competition in a recession. While industry adex is likely to contract, SPH’s newspaper advertising should benefit from trading down from television advertising. Classified revenue had fallen 6% yoy in the last results, but this was muted compared with most other companies. Retreating commodity prices are also positive for SPH, as newsprint costs are unlikely to rise further.

• Property recognition to shore up earnings; risks not overwhelming. Media earnings contraction is likely to be cushioned by profit recognition for the Sky@eleven residential development project, and Paragon. For Sky@eleven, buyers’ default risk is fairly low, in our opinion, even though SPH has allowed the Deferred Payment Scheme to be transferred to second buyers. For default risks to become real, selling prices would have to fall by more than 20% below the project’s launch price of S$975psf. For Paragon, we are already valuing this property at S$1.5bn, vs. SPH’s latest revaluation of S$2.0bn, in mid-2008.

• Forecasts reduced; sum-of-the-parts target price trimmed to S$4.01 from S$4.50. In view of the weak economic environment, we expect print ad revenue and investment income to decline. We have cut our earnings estimates by 12-14%. Nevertheless, maintain Outperform. We expect SPH to pay S$0.26-0.27/share in FY09-10, with yields of more than 8%.